South Carolina Democratic Party primary (Feb. 3)

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Until yesterday, 15.000 people have voted early.

7.000 additional voters requested a mail-ballot.

Of the 7k, 59% were Black, 38% White and 3% Hispanic/Asian/others.

There are 3.3 million registered voters, and I expect not even 250.000 people to vote next Saturday.

This would be 40% of 2020 turnout in SC's D primary, but statewide, not even 8% turnout.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Just for comparison, about 52% of NH registered voters turned out on Tuesday.

Democratic turnout was 125k out of 874k registered voters - or 14%.

For SC Dems to match this, 450.000 would have to vote next week.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

If 60% are black and Biden gets 90%, that's 54% for him.

If 40% are White/Asian/Hispanic and Biden gets 60% (he only received 30% in 2020), that's an additional 24% for him.

That's 78% for Biden.

Do you think Biden will get more or less than 60 percent among Whites?

I'm pretty sure almost all Black people will vote for him (90%).

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Do you think there will be any polling over the next week for the Dem. Primary?

Emerson maybe?

[Eraserhead]

Do you think there will be any polling over the next week for the Dem. Primary?

Emerson maybe?

No.

[Eraserhead]

Biden should clear 85% easily. 90% is possible.

Was there even a Democratic Primary held in South Carolina in 2012?

[The Mikado]

I'm going to say something like:

Biden 88
Phillips 8
Williamson 4

[The Mikado]

Was there even a Democratic Primary held in South Carolina in 2012?

No there wasn't. Because Obama was the only candidate to be on the ballot they cancelled it.

[MichaelRbn]

The Republican primary is winner take all.  All Democratic primaries award delegates proportionally.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/SC-D#0203

[kwabbit]

There was a very strong correlation between non-White% of a precinct and Biden underperformance in NH, so SC will be an interesting indicator if that will become a trend. Nevada will be more useful in that regard since Southern Black voters are more loyal and organized than elsewhere and Dean Philips and Marianne Williamson are not the types to peel off a good proportion, but it'll still be another good data point. Doing analysis on the small percentages other candidates are winning in the Dem primary seems pointless, but there was also a strong correlation between Weld% and 2016 to 2020 swing.

[President Johnson]

There was a very strong correlation between non-White% of a precinct and Biden underperformance in NH, so SC will be an interesting indicator if that will become a trend. Nevada will be more useful in that regard since Southern Black voters are more loyal and organized than elsewhere and Dean Philips and Marianne Williamson are not the types to peel off a good proportion, but it'll still be another good data point. Doing analysis on the small percentages other candidates are winning in the Dem primary seems pointless, but there was also a strong correlation between Weld% and 2016 to 2020 swing.

I wouldn't say Biden had an underperformance in New Hampshire. It was a respectable showing for a write-in.

Expecting him to finish in the 85-90% range here. I hope Williamson comes in ahead of Philips, that would be fun.

[wbrocks67]

There was a very strong correlation between non-White% of a precinct and Biden underperformance in NH, so SC will be an interesting indicator if that will become a trend. Nevada will be more useful in that regard since Southern Black voters are more loyal and organized than elsewhere and Dean Philips and Marianne Williamson are not the types to peel off a good proportion, but it'll still be another good data point. Doing analysis on the small percentages other candidates are winning in the Dem primary seems pointless, but there was also a strong correlation between Weld% and 2016 to 2020 swing.

That tweet was excoriated by a lot of people, given that the n= in those areas of nonwhite voters is so low, especially in a low-turnout primary, that it's a bit overdramatic to pull anything from it.

[kwabbit]

There was a very strong correlation between non-White% of a precinct and Biden underperformance in NH, so SC will be an interesting indicator if that will become a trend. Nevada will be more useful in that regard since Southern Black voters are more loyal and organized than elsewhere and Dean Philips and Marianne Williamson are not the types to peel off a good proportion, but it'll still be another good data point. Doing analysis on the small percentages other candidates are winning in the Dem primary seems pointless, but there was also a strong correlation between Weld% and 2016 to 2020 swing.

I wouldn't say Biden had an underperformance in New Hampshire. It was a respectable showing for a write-in.

Expecting him to finish in the 85-90% range here. I hope Williamson comes in ahead of Philips, that would be fun.

Biden as a whole did well. He just did clearly worse in non-White areas. As wbrocks said, this very well might have been a weakness with non-College whites as there’s a strong overlap between where they live and non-White voters. SC will be a better test as there are heavily Black areas where the results can be more clearly understood. Nevada even better as there are Hispanic, Black, and working class Asian areas.

[kwabbit]

There was a very strong correlation between non-White% of a precinct and Biden underperformance in NH, so SC will be an interesting indicator if that will become a trend. Nevada will be more useful in that regard since Southern Black voters are more loyal and organized than elsewhere and Dean Philips and Marianne Williamson are not the types to peel off a good proportion, but it'll still be another good data point. Doing analysis on the small percentages other candidates are winning in the Dem primary seems pointless, but there was also a strong correlation between Weld% and 2016 to 2020 swing.

That tweet was excoriated by a lot of people, given that the n= in those areas of nonwhite voters is so low, especially in a low-turnout primary, that it's a bit overdramatic to pull anything from it.

There was unquestionably a correlation between non-White% and non-Biden%, that much is statistical fact, but yes it is not clear if weakness with non-Whites was really the cause or if it was from weakness with WWCs within the Dem coalition, or even DINOs that are still registered Dem. The n= will get a lot bigger with SC and NV, maybe enough to learn something.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Only 20.000 people have voted early so far.

+ 4-5k per day.

That's just 35-40k in early voting by Friday.

Absentee requests are stuck at 7k requested.

I seriously doubt more than 150.000 people will vote, out of 3.3 million registered.

Not even a 5% turnout ...

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Only 20.000 people have voted early so far.

+ 4-5k per day.

That's just 35-40k in early voting by Friday.

Absentee requests are stuck at 7k requested.

I seriously doubt more than 150.000 people will vote, out of 3.3 million registered.

Not even a 5% turnout ...

I guess R turnout will be much higher in three weeks - at 20-25%, or 650.000 to 850.000 voters.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I'm going to say something like:

Biden 88
Phillips 8
Williamson 4

My guess:

79 Biden
16 Phillips
  5 Williamson

But because of the low turnout, it is completely meaningless and Biden at 80 doesn't matter with such tiny numbers. It's an embarrassment for the D party. But let's wait, maybe people are turning out on election day.

[emailking]

Biden will sweep the dels.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Biden will probably crack 80% here considering the Dem primary base are mainly older black voters which is one of his core supporters.

[Anti-Penguin Tariff Voter]

If anyone not named Biden cracks 10% I’ll be shocked

[heatcharger]

Biden should hit 90-95% here.

[Eraserhead]

I'm going to say something like:

Biden 88
Phillips 8
Williamson 4

My guess:

79 Biden
16 Phillips
  5 Williamson

But because of the low turnout, it is completely meaningless and Biden at 80 doesn't matter with such tiny numbers. It's an embarrassment for the D party. But let's wait, maybe people are turning out on election day.

There's no reason at all that Phillips should do that well here. It's not like there are really any Dixiecrat types at this point (nor are there many on the far left). Plus I'm sure he's not spending the money that he did in New Hampshire.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Phillips and Williamson combined are not cracking double digits.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I'm going to say something like:

Biden 88
Phillips 8
Williamson 4

My guess:

79 Biden
16 Phillips
  5 Williamson

But because of the low turnout, it is completely meaningless and Biden at 80 doesn't matter with such tiny numbers. It's an embarrassment for the D party. But let's wait, maybe people are turning out on election day.

There's no reason at all that Phillips should do that well here. It's not like there are really any Dixiecrat types at this point (nor are there many on the far left). Plus I'm sure he's not spending the money that he did in New Hampshire.

As I've said, turnout will be catastrophic with only 30k early votes so far and maybe not even 150k in total, or less than 5% of registered voters in the state.

Even if Biden crosses 90 percent, it is meaningless, it is a non-representative primary and awful for him and the SC Democratic party.

The Republican primary will have 5 to 8 times the turnout of Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

I'm going to say something like:

Biden 88
Phillips 8
Williamson 4

My guess:

79 Biden
16 Phillips
  5 Williamson

But because of the low turnout, it is completely meaningless and Biden at 80 doesn't matter with such tiny numbers. It's an embarrassment for the D party. But let's wait, maybe people are turning out on election day.

There's no reason at all that Phillips should do that well here. It's not like there are really any Dixiecrat types at this point (nor are there many on the far left). Plus I'm sure he's not spending the money that he did in New Hampshire.

As I've said, turnout will be catastrophic with only 30k early votes so far and maybe not even 150k in total, or less than 5% of registered voters in the state.

Even if Biden crosses 90 percent, it is meaningless, it is a non-representative primary and awful for him and the SC Democratic party.

The Republican primary will have 5 to 8 times the turnout of Democrats.

Literally what? "No matter what happens, this is bad for Biden" what a take