Predict SC (Democratic) and NV (Democratic + Republican) contests.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

SC (D-primary) - in 1 week

My guess:

74% Biden
22% Phillips
  4% Williamson

NV (D-primary) - Feb 6

My guess:

73% Biden
  5% Williamson
22% None of the above candidates (= Dean in all but name)

NV (R-primary) - Feb. 6

My guess:

63% None of the above candidates
35% Haley
  2% Other candidates

NV (R-caucus) - Feb. 8

My guess:

91% Trump
  9% Binkley

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

SC is a tough ground for Phillips - and especially Williamson.

Neither has campaigned there in the past months and Phillips is only pouring in millions right now, with only a week to go.

Early voting has already started.

It is also an open primary state, which means everyone can vote in the primary of the Democratic party (but there's no same day voter registration).

The demographics of the state are helping Biden, but the open primary character keeps Phillips in the game. 22% is his best-case scenario in my opinion, he could also be as low as 10 percent.

Biden's best case is 88%, with Phillips at 10 and Williamson at 2.

Worst case: Biden 74-76% and 2% for Williamson.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Haley vs. NOTA candidates is very hard to predict and so is Trump vs. Binkley.

I don't think there are more than 4 in 10 Haley supporters among Republicans in NV - and the primary is closed, meaning only registered Republicans can vote.

In the caucus, Binkley could see supporters of Haley caucusing for him as protest against Trump, but the effect should be limited.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Turnout for the SC Democratic primary. What could it realistically be like?

It was 540.000 in 2020.

NH had about 40% turnout this year compared to its 2020 turnout.

This would suggest 200.000 to 250.000 for SC Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

Why'd you exclude Dems for NV? It's the same day on 2/6. Only Biden and Williamson are on the ballot.

Phillips is not getting 22% in SC. AFAIK he/his PAC have barely spent any $$ there at all (if anything?) and the base is nearly entirely black voters. Phillips will be lucky to get 10%.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Why'd you exclude Dems for NV? It's the same day on 2/6. Only Biden and Williamson are on the ballot.

Phillips is not getting 22% in SC. AFAIK he/his PAC have barely spent any $$ there at all (if anything?) and the base is nearly entirely black voters. Phillips will be lucky to get 10%.

I almost forgot about D-NV - thanks for reminding me.

There is still a protest potential in SC, Biden is not liked by 90% or more. Maybe not even 85% of voters. It's also an open primary, not closed. Phillips should get 10 percent or more, 15% is not unrealistic. It's possible Biden receive 80 or more, but it doesn't necessarily have to be this way.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

NV-D (Feb 6).

My guess:

73% Biden
  5% Williamson
22% None of the above candidates (= Dean in all but name)

[wbrocks67]

Why'd you exclude Dems for NV? It's the same day on 2/6. Only Biden and Williamson are on the ballot.

Phillips is not getting 22% in SC. AFAIK he/his PAC have barely spent any $$ there at all (if anything?) and the base is nearly entirely black voters. Phillips will be lucky to get 10%.

I almost forgot about D-NV - thanks for reminding me.

There is still a protest potential in SC, Biden is not liked by 90% or more. Maybe not even 85% of voters. It's also an open primary, not closed. Phillips should get 10 percent or more, 15% is not unrealistic. It's possible Biden receive 80 or more, but it doesn't necessarily have to be this way.

Again, the base of SC Dems is black voters. They are the least likely to either protest Biden or vote for Dean Phillips out of any group pretty much.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Why'd you exclude Dems for NV? It's the same day on 2/6. Only Biden and Williamson are on the ballot.

Phillips is not getting 22% in SC. AFAIK he/his PAC have barely spent any $$ there at all (if anything?) and the base is nearly entirely black voters. Phillips will be lucky to get 10%.

I almost forgot about D-NV - thanks for reminding me.

There is still a protest potential in SC, Biden is not liked by 90% or more. Maybe not even 85% of voters. It's also an open primary, not closed. Phillips should get 10 percent or more, 15% is not unrealistic. It's possible Biden receive 80 or more, but it doesn't necessarily have to be this way.

Again, the base of SC Dems is black voters. They are the least likely to either protest Biden or vote for Dean Phillips out of any group pretty much.

IIRC, around 3/5th of the primary electorate is black in SC.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Why'd you exclude Dems for NV? It's the same day on 2/6. Only Biden and Williamson are on the ballot.

Phillips is not getting 22% in SC. AFAIK he/his PAC have barely spent any $$ there at all (if anything?) and the base is nearly entirely black voters. Phillips will be lucky to get 10%.

I almost forgot about D-NV - thanks for reminding me.

There is still a protest potential in SC, Biden is not liked by 90% or more. Maybe not even 85% of voters. It's also an open primary, not closed. Phillips should get 10 percent or more, 15% is not unrealistic. It's possible Biden receive 80 or more, but it doesn't necessarily have to be this way.

Again, the base of SC Dems is black voters. They are the least likely to either protest Biden or vote for Dean Phillips out of any group pretty much.

SC Democrats are not exclusively black though.

It's 70% black, right?

[Compuzled_One]

SC Dem:

93% Biden
5% Phillips
2% Williamson

NV Rep Primary:

83% Haley
7% N/A
6% Castro
4% Others

NV Rep Caucus:
95% Trump
5% Binkley (my man got delegates!)

NV Dem:

93% Biden
5% Williamson
2% N/A

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

SC Dem:

93% Biden
5% Phillips
2% Williamson

NV Rep Primary:

83% Haley
7% N/A
6% Castro
4% Others

NV Rep Caucus:
95% Trump
5% Binkley (my man got delegates!)

NV Dem:

93% Biden
5% Williamson
2% N/A

Very different from my guess.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I've seen a SC sample ballot.

Only the 3 names on the ballot: Biden, Phillips, Williamson.

No "none of the above", no write-in bullsh*t.

[CentristRepublican]

Sorry, can someone explain the whole NV primary vs NV caucus thing and why the consensus is that Haley wins the former in a blowout and gets next to nothing in the latter?

[Compuzled_One]

Sorry, can someone explain the whole NV primary vs NV caucus thing and why the consensus is that Haley wins the former in a blowout and gets next to nothing in the latter?

The Republican party and state had a fight over which system to use, so the state is holding a primary and the party a caucus, only the later of which sends delegates. Since the party said whoever could appear in the caucus couldn't be in the primary (and vice versa), Haley is the only major candidate in the primary (that's in the race), while Trump is the only one in the caucus.

[TimeUnit2027]

Serious mistake by Haley-she should run in caucus. This is what happens when primaries are uncompetitive,and you do not want to try competing. NV  is less inclined toward religous aspect of conservatism so it might help her as she is not evangelical candidate like Santorum or people like that

[Slick Willie]

Serious mistake by Haley-she should run in caucus. This is what happens when primaries are uncompetitive,and you do not want to try competing. NV  is less inclined toward religous aspect of conservatism so it might help her as she is not evangelical candidate like Santorum or people like that

I’m assuming there’s a deadline she missed. Surely it was too late for her to get on the Nevada caucus ballot by the time Iowa rolled around right? Also how would she have gone about pulling her name from the primary ballot?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Serious mistake by Haley-she should run in caucus. This is what happens when primaries are uncompetitive,and you do not want to try competing. NV  is less inclined toward religous aspect of conservatism so it might help her as she is not evangelical candidate like Santorum or people like that

I’m assuming there’s a deadline she missed. Surely it was too late for her to get on the Nevada caucus ballot by the time Iowa rolled around right? Also how would she have gone about pulling her name from the primary ballot?

No, Haley intentionally filed for the primary, not the caucus.

She didn't miss a deadline, but wanted to use her primary win for momentum.

She was probably not aware though that "none of the above" could beat her ...

[CentristRepublican]

Serious mistake by Haley-she should run in caucus. This is what happens when primaries are uncompetitive,and you do not want to try competing. NV  is less inclined toward religous aspect of conservatism so it might help her as she is not evangelical candidate like Santorum or people like that

Is it? The way I see it, this allows her to not invest time and resources into a state she'd lose anyway, while still saving face. Were she to compete against Trump in NV she'd go down in flames. It would be a humiliating loss after she'd presumably have invested time/money to compete there. Otoh, as things are she can just point to the NV primary; it more or less cancels out the effect of the caucus, at least in a moral sense. Sure, Trump won in a blowout, but so did she. Sure, her victory was just because she ran uncontested, but so was Trump's.

She can quit worrying about a state she'd never actually win and instead make an all-out play in her home state. She wins there, it's the only way she gets enough momentum to keep going. She loses, it's joever. Make no mistake, SC (assuming she doesn't drop out before then) is as much a must-win for Haley as it was for Biden four years back.

[Where's the Epstein Client List?]

Serious mistake by Haley-she should run in caucus. This is what happens when primaries are uncompetitive,and you do not want to try competing. NV  is less inclined toward religous aspect of conservatism so it might help her as she is not evangelical candidate like Santorum or people like that

I’m assuming there’s a deadline she missed. Surely it was too late for her to get on the Nevada caucus ballot by the time Iowa rolled around right? Also how would she have gone about pulling her name from the primary ballot?

No, Haley intentionally filed for the primary, not the caucus.

She didn't miss a deadline, but wanted to use her primary win for momentum.

She was probably not aware though that "none of the above" could beat her ...

That makes zero sense at all. Of course you're going to win when you're the only person on the ballot.

Hillary tried that in 2008 when the DNC sanctioned Michigan's primary for being too early and Obama/Edwards/et al declined to contest it out of respect for the national party, and it didn't help her.

Nevada is also just a really terrible state for Haley demographically. Very few college educated white people; Democrats are often unionized or union-adjacent due to the importance of hotels/services to the economy and they're not going to cross over to the GOP to vote for a woman who proudly brags about how much she hates unions and they hate her.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Last chance to make a prediction.

Mine:

80% Biden
14% Phillips
  6% Williamson

Turnout: 153.000 (~5% of registered voters)

[wbrocks67]

Final prediction-

Biden 90%
Phillips 7%
Williamson 3%

I can't imagine Williamson tops even the 4% she got in NH. I think she'll be lucky to even get 3%.

[soundchaser]

Williamson and Phillips are both terrible fits for South Carolina. I'd be surprised if either of them gets within sniffing distance of 10%.

[Compuzled_One]

Okay, final and altered prediction for SC is Biden 90.6, Phillips 6, Williams 3.4.

[The Mikado]

Final prediction:

Biden 89
Phillips 8
Williamson 3