Hot take; NC is not the easiest flip for Biden

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC is already a state Democrats have invested in for over a decade and have gotten solid turnout amongst their core support groups like black voters. Despite getting base turnout up, Democrats have repeatedly lost statewide due to Republican gains elsewhere, especially in rural NC. While there def are potential Dems to gain, there are places Rs have to gain the marginal benefit of spending additional money is pretty low because so many voters have already been activated; the state had nearly 80% turnout in 2020. Really the only way for Dems to win NC in 2024 is to have a solid win nationally - getting a lopsided turnout dynamic and favorable persuasion.

AK is a state that is relatively small where Dems have not invested much in the recent past, but Peltola has shown a path for a statewide win. There are quite a few pocket of low turnout Dem-leaning communities like Native Preservations and core parts of Anchorage where a little investment could go a long way for Biden. Trump only won by about 35k votes - Biden could find those 35k votes if he really wanted to.

TX is a state with a similar situation to AK except it's gigantic. Still, because it's seen minimal Dem investment in the recent past, the marginal benefit of spending money there is much higher than NC. In 2020 for instance, Rs outspent Ds in TX by nearly 10x, yet the state still swung and trended left. I also made a thread discussing reasons why TX has some underrated good signs for Dems under the surface.

I think both AK and TX are easier wins for Biden than NC.

A reminder that easier doesn't necessary mean more likely - for a variety of reasons I expect Biden and national Dems to spend more on NC than TX or AK, but I think it'd take less resources to flip TX or AK than NC. I also think AK on a per-capita basis is still a worse investment for Dems than NC, even if in absolute terms it technically is an "easier" flip.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

FL is the easiest flip for him, but at this point Biden is unlikely to expand the map.

[ProgressiveModerate]

FL is the easiest flip for him, but at this point Biden is unlikely to expand the map.

I think Florida has a simillar problem to NC; Dems have invested there for decades but almost always lose statewide races. While I definitely think a more competent state party could make a difference, realistically that isn't going to be the case for 2024, and there are too many demographic liabilities.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well, there really isn't any "easy" flip for him. It's kind of the only possible flip.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

We don't need NC but it's called split voting Cooper won by 4 and Biden lost the state

There can be split voting Tester and Brown, Kunce, ALLRED and Powell are overlooking BIDEN , I have a 303 map but I have a wave insuranxe S map

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden only lost NC by one point in 2020. And the areas trending towards Democrats in the state are way more populated and growing faster than those trending away from them.

So yeah it’s by far the easiest state for Biden top flip.

[I love MAGA, don’t send me to the camps]

While neither is a flip, I would invest in Blue Alaska and Blue Utah. Both have a slice of non-voters who may be activated knowing their vote could matter.

[Fancyarcher]

North Carolina really only flips if Biden improves on his popular vote margin, and that seems unlikely.  If he's flipping Texas and Alaska for example, he almost certainly flipping NC.

The state has been stuck perpetually at R + 5 relative to the popular vote, since 2008.

[ProgressiveModerate]

North Carolina really only flips if Biden improves on his popular vote margin, and that seems unlikely.  If he's flipping Texas and Alaska for example, he almost certainly flipping NC.

The state has been stuck perpetually at R + 5 relative to the popular vote, since 2008.

Not necessarily; pre-2020 many people would've said Biden winning GA would mean he's likely carrying NC and FL. State's don't have an "order" in which they flip - there is correlation but it's not absolute.

My argument is that the Biden campaign has more ability to swing AK and TX outside the national circumstances because both states have far more potential-Dem nonvoters. In NC, Dems have already activated 95% of the Dem voters that can be realistically activated.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden only lost NC by one point in 2020. And the areas trending towards Democrats in the state are way more populated and growing faster than those trending away from them.

So yeah it’s by far the easiest state for Biden top flip.

Again this kind of ignores the point; yes NC was the closest state in 2020 but it's a state that's been remarkably stagnant and would be hard for Dems to juice new voters out of. Yes, there are Dem favorable shifts in metro Raleigh and Durham, but a lot of the state has favorable Demographic changes for Republicans.

Dems have more ability to actually make TX and AK *trend* left relative to the nation if they want to.

[Fancyarcher]

Biden only lost NC by one point in 2020. And the areas trending towards Democrats in the state are way more populated and growing faster than those trending away from them.

So yeah it’s by far the easiest state for Biden top flip.

Again this kind of ignores the point; yes NC was the closest state in 2020 but it's a state that's been remarkably stagnant and would be hard for Dems to juice new voters out of. Yes, there are Dem favorable shifts in metro Raleigh and Durham, but a lot of the state has favorable Demographic changes for Republicans.

Dems have more ability to actually make TX and AK *trend* left relative to the nation if they want to.

Yes that's true, but I still feel like if say Biden is winning say Alaska, he's winning the popular vote by more than four points, in which case, I would be surprised if North Carolina didn't narrowly flip.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden only lost NC by one point in 2020. And the areas trending towards Democrats in the state are way more populated and growing faster than those trending away from them.

So yeah it’s by far the easiest state for Biden top flip.

Again this kind of ignores the point; yes NC was the closest state in 2020 but it's a state that's been remarkably stagnant and would be hard for Dems to juice new voters out of. Yes, there are Dem favorable shifts in metro Raleigh and Durham, but a lot of the state has favorable Demographic changes for Republicans.

Dems have more ability to actually make TX and AK *trend* left relative to the nation if they want to.

Yes that's true, but I still feel like if say Biden is winning say Alaska, he's winning the popular vote by more than four points, in which case, I would be surprised if North Carolina didn't narrowly flip.

AK is one of the states that has historically been most detached from the national environment in both midterm and Pres years. It's large left shifts from 2000 --> 2004 and 2008 --> 2012, the close 2014 Senate race, the state House going coalition Dem in a relatively weak period for the national party are some examples.

[Fancyarcher]

Biden only lost NC by one point in 2020. And the areas trending towards Democrats in the state are way more populated and growing faster than those trending away from them.

So yeah it’s by far the easiest state for Biden top flip.

Again this kind of ignores the point; yes NC was the closest state in 2020 but it's a state that's been remarkably stagnant and would be hard for Dems to juice new voters out of. Yes, there are Dem favorable shifts in metro Raleigh and Durham, but a lot of the state has favorable Demographic changes for Republicans.

Dems have more ability to actually make TX and AK *trend* left relative to the nation if they want to.

Yes that's true, but I still feel like if say Biden is winning say Alaska, he's winning the popular vote by more than four points, in which case, I would be surprised if North Carolina didn't narrowly flip.

AK is one of the states that has historically been most detached from the national environment in both midterm and Pres years. It's large left shifts from 2000 --> 2004 and 2008 --> 2012, the close 2014 Senate race, the state House going coalition Dem in a relatively weak period for the national party are some examples.

It still voted double digits relative to the right relative popular vote in 2024. It'll keep swinging, but I still expect it finally flip when Democrats next win by a healthy margin, whenever that is, given this polarized climate.

[Devils30]

NC still has some very favorable trends for Dems. Raleigh and Charlotte are fast growing metro areas that might eventually more than offset losses in eastern NC.Some of the fairly rural western NC counties near Asheville also are 30% college educated, not the demographic to trend red.

Alaska could be interesting if Dems invest. A little bit of cash on ads could go a long way there. I don’t think Alaska will be bluer than NC this year but by 2028-32 maybe.

[Joe Biden 2028]

NC is already a state Democrats have invested in for over a decade and have gotten solid turnout amongst their core support groups like black voters. Despite getting base turnout up, Democrats have repeatedly lost statewide due to Republican gains elsewhere, especially in rural NC. While there def are potential Dems to gain, there are places Rs have to gain the marginal benefit of spending additional money is pretty low because so many voters have already been activated; the state had nearly 80% turnout in 2020. Really the only way for Dems to win NC in 2024 is to have a solid win nationally - getting a lopsided turnout dynamic and favorable persuasion.

AK is a state that is relatively small where Dems have not invested much in the recent past, but Peltola has shown a path for a statewide win. There are quite a few pocket of low turnout Dem-leaning communities like Native Preservations and core parts of Anchorage where a little investment could go a long way for Biden. Trump only won by about 35k votes - Biden could find those 35k votes if he really wanted to.

TX is a state with a similar situation to AK except it's gigantic. Still, because it's seen minimal Dem investment in the recent past, the marginal benefit of spending money there is much higher than NC. In 2020 for instance, Rs outspent Ds in TX by nearly 10x, yet the state still swung and trended left. I also made a thread discussing reasons why TX has some underrated good signs for Dems under the surface.

I think both AK and TX are easier wins for Biden than NC.

A reminder that easier doesn't necessary mean more likely - for a variety of reasons I expect Biden and national Dems to spend more on NC than TX or AK, but I think it'd take less resources to flip TX or AK than NC. I also think AK on a per-capita basis is still a worse investment for Dems than NC, even if in absolute terms it technically is an "easier" flip.

I agree, NC probably won't flip even with a strong Biden victory. Its a very stubborn state. Pretty unusual, rural areas already vote Democrat at higher levels compared to other southern states. Its the only reason NC was competeive these last few election cycles to begin with. Yes, the cities are growing. But Republicans can still grow at the rural area.

I really think Alaska can be one with more investment. It would require Peltola to win a strong victory to help Biden buts she is really popular

A win in Alaska means Peltola could win the 2026 Alaskan senate race

[Tekken_Guy]

NC is already a state Democrats have invested in for over a decade and have gotten solid turnout amongst their core support groups like black voters. Despite getting base turnout up, Democrats have repeatedly lost statewide due to Republican gains elsewhere, especially in rural NC. While there def are potential Dems to gain, there are places Rs have to gain the marginal benefit of spending additional money is pretty low because so many voters have already been activated; the state had nearly 80% turnout in 2020. Really the only way for Dems to win NC in 2024 is to have a solid win nationally - getting a lopsided turnout dynamic and favorable persuasion.

AK is a state that is relatively small where Dems have not invested much in the recent past, but Peltola has shown a path for a statewide win. There are quite a few pocket of low turnout Dem-leaning communities like Native Preservations and core parts of Anchorage where a little investment could go a long way for Biden. Trump only won by about 35k votes - Biden could find those 35k votes if he really wanted to.

TX is a state with a similar situation to AK except it's gigantic. Still, because it's seen minimal Dem investment in the recent past, the marginal benefit of spending money there is much higher than NC. In 2020 for instance, Rs outspent Ds in TX by nearly 10x, yet the state still swung and trended left. I also made a thread discussing reasons why TX has some underrated good signs for Dems under the surface.

I think both AK and TX are easier wins for Biden than NC.

A reminder that easier doesn't necessary mean more likely - for a variety of reasons I expect Biden and national Dems to spend more on NC than TX or AK, but I think it'd take less resources to flip TX or AK than NC. I also think AK on a per-capita basis is still a worse investment for Dems than NC, even if in absolute terms it technically is an "easier" flip.

I agree, NC probably won't flip even with a strong Biden victory. Its a very stubborn state. Pretty unusual, rural areas already vote Democrat at higher levels compared to other southern states. Its the only reason NC was competeive these last few election cycles to begin with. Yes, the cities are growing. But Republicans can still grow at the rural area.

I really think Alaska can be one with more investment. It would require Peltola to win a strong victory to help Biden buts she is really popular

A win in Alaska means Peltola could win the 2026 Alaskan senate race

Democrats have high floors in these rural areas because of the black population being fairly high in Eastern NC.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC is already a state Democrats have invested in for over a decade and have gotten solid turnout amongst their core support groups like black voters. Despite getting base turnout up, Democrats have repeatedly lost statewide due to Republican gains elsewhere, especially in rural NC. While there def are potential Dems to gain, there are places Rs have to gain the marginal benefit of spending additional money is pretty low because so many voters have already been activated; the state had nearly 80% turnout in 2020. Really the only way for Dems to win NC in 2024 is to have a solid win nationally - getting a lopsided turnout dynamic and favorable persuasion.

AK is a state that is relatively small where Dems have not invested much in the recent past, but Peltola has shown a path for a statewide win. There are quite a few pocket of low turnout Dem-leaning communities like Native Preservations and core parts of Anchorage where a little investment could go a long way for Biden. Trump only won by about 35k votes - Biden could find those 35k votes if he really wanted to.

TX is a state with a similar situation to AK except it's gigantic. Still, because it's seen minimal Dem investment in the recent past, the marginal benefit of spending money there is much higher than NC. In 2020 for instance, Rs outspent Ds in TX by nearly 10x, yet the state still swung and trended left. I also made a thread discussing reasons why TX has some underrated good signs for Dems under the surface.

I think both AK and TX are easier wins for Biden than NC.

A reminder that easier doesn't necessary mean more likely - for a variety of reasons I expect Biden and national Dems to spend more on NC than TX or AK, but I think it'd take less resources to flip TX or AK than NC. I also think AK on a per-capita basis is still a worse investment for Dems than NC, even if in absolute terms it technically is an "easier" flip.

I agree, NC probably won't flip even with a strong Biden victory. Its a very stubborn state. Pretty unusual, rural areas already vote Democrat at higher levels compared to other southern states. Its the only reason NC was competeive these last few election cycles to begin with. Yes, the cities are growing. But Republicans can still grow at the rural area.

I really think Alaska can be one with more investment. It would require Peltola to win a strong victory to help Biden buts she is really popular

A win in Alaska means Peltola could win the 2026 Alaskan senate race

Democrats have high floors in these rural areas because of the black population being fairly high in Eastern NC.

Agree, but still think Dems can fall further from Biden 2020 as 2022 Senate showed. Some of 2022 Senate was because of low black turnout, but doesn't explain all of it.

I also think Dems have further ground to lose in many western NC rurals (though GOP is slowly approaching their floor in a few places). Some rurals in the far west of NC will be interesting to watch; Beasley 2022 outran Biden; it seems the influence of some colleges and generally decent college attainment in the region may be helping to push these left.

[Tekken_Guy]

NC is already a state Democrats have invested in for over a decade and have gotten solid turnout amongst their core support groups like black voters. Despite getting base turnout up, Democrats have repeatedly lost statewide due to Republican gains elsewhere, especially in rural NC. While there def are potential Dems to gain, there are places Rs have to gain the marginal benefit of spending additional money is pretty low because so many voters have already been activated; the state had nearly 80% turnout in 2020. Really the only way for Dems to win NC in 2024 is to have a solid win nationally - getting a lopsided turnout dynamic and favorable persuasion.

AK is a state that is relatively small where Dems have not invested much in the recent past, but Peltola has shown a path for a statewide win. There are quite a few pocket of low turnout Dem-leaning communities like Native Preservations and core parts of Anchorage where a little investment could go a long way for Biden. Trump only won by about 35k votes - Biden could find those 35k votes if he really wanted to.

TX is a state with a similar situation to AK except it's gigantic. Still, because it's seen minimal Dem investment in the recent past, the marginal benefit of spending money there is much higher than NC. In 2020 for instance, Rs outspent Ds in TX by nearly 10x, yet the state still swung and trended left. I also made a thread discussing reasons why TX has some underrated good signs for Dems under the surface.

I think both AK and TX are easier wins for Biden than NC.

A reminder that easier doesn't necessary mean more likely - for a variety of reasons I expect Biden and national Dems to spend more on NC than TX or AK, but I think it'd take less resources to flip TX or AK than NC. I also think AK on a per-capita basis is still a worse investment for Dems than NC, even if in absolute terms it technically is an "easier" flip.

I agree, NC probably won't flip even with a strong Biden victory. Its a very stubborn state. Pretty unusual, rural areas already vote Democrat at higher levels compared to other southern states. Its the only reason NC was competeive these last few election cycles to begin with. Yes, the cities are growing. But Republicans can still grow at the rural area.

I really think Alaska can be one with more investment. It would require Peltola to win a strong victory to help Biden buts she is really popular

A win in Alaska means Peltola could win the 2026 Alaskan senate race

Democrats have high floors in these rural areas because of the black population being fairly high in Eastern NC.

Agree, but still think Dems can fall further from Biden 2020 as 2022 Senate showed. Some of 2022 Senate was because of low black turnout, but doesn't explain all of it.

I also think Dems have further ground to lose in many western NC rurals (though GOP is slowly approaching their floor in a few places). Some rurals in the far west of NC will be interesting to watch; Beasley 2022 outran Biden; it seems the influence of some colleges and generally decent college attainment in the region may be helping to push these left.

I can’t see Biden doing as poorly as Beasley in those eastern black belt rurals.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC is already a state Democrats have invested in for over a decade and have gotten solid turnout amongst their core support groups like black voters. Despite getting base turnout up, Democrats have repeatedly lost statewide due to Republican gains elsewhere, especially in rural NC. While there def are potential Dems to gain, there are places Rs have to gain the marginal benefit of spending additional money is pretty low because so many voters have already been activated; the state had nearly 80% turnout in 2020. Really the only way for Dems to win NC in 2024 is to have a solid win nationally - getting a lopsided turnout dynamic and favorable persuasion.

AK is a state that is relatively small where Dems have not invested much in the recent past, but Peltola has shown a path for a statewide win. There are quite a few pocket of low turnout Dem-leaning communities like Native Preservations and core parts of Anchorage where a little investment could go a long way for Biden. Trump only won by about 35k votes - Biden could find those 35k votes if he really wanted to.

TX is a state with a similar situation to AK except it's gigantic. Still, because it's seen minimal Dem investment in the recent past, the marginal benefit of spending money there is much higher than NC. In 2020 for instance, Rs outspent Ds in TX by nearly 10x, yet the state still swung and trended left. I also made a thread discussing reasons why TX has some underrated good signs for Dems under the surface.

I think both AK and TX are easier wins for Biden than NC.

A reminder that easier doesn't necessary mean more likely - for a variety of reasons I expect Biden and national Dems to spend more on NC than TX or AK, but I think it'd take less resources to flip TX or AK than NC. I also think AK on a per-capita basis is still a worse investment for Dems than NC, even if in absolute terms it technically is an "easier" flip.

I agree, NC probably won't flip even with a strong Biden victory. Its a very stubborn state. Pretty unusual, rural areas already vote Democrat at higher levels compared to other southern states. Its the only reason NC was competeive these last few election cycles to begin with. Yes, the cities are growing. But Republicans can still grow at the rural area.

I really think Alaska can be one with more investment. It would require Peltola to win a strong victory to help Biden buts she is really popular

A win in Alaska means Peltola could win the 2026 Alaskan senate race

Democrats have high floors in these rural areas because of the black population being fairly high in Eastern NC.

Agree, but still think Dems can fall further from Biden 2020 as 2022 Senate showed. Some of 2022 Senate was because of low black turnout, but doesn't explain all of it.

I also think Dems have further ground to lose in many western NC rurals (though GOP is slowly approaching their floor in a few places). Some rurals in the far west of NC will be interesting to watch; Beasley 2022 outran Biden; it seems the influence of some colleges and generally decent college attainment in the region may be helping to push these left.

I can’t see Biden doing as poorly as Beasley in those eastern black belt rurals.

I could but I don't think it's inevitable.

[Devils30]

NC is already a state Democrats have invested in for over a decade and have gotten solid turnout amongst their core support groups like black voters. Despite getting base turnout up, Democrats have repeatedly lost statewide due to Republican gains elsewhere, especially in rural NC. While there def are potential Dems to gain, there are places Rs have to gain the marginal benefit of spending additional money is pretty low because so many voters have already been activated; the state had nearly 80% turnout in 2020. Really the only way for Dems to win NC in 2024 is to have a solid win nationally - getting a lopsided turnout dynamic and favorable persuasion.

AK is a state that is relatively small where Dems have not invested much in the recent past, but Peltola has shown a path for a statewide win. There are quite a few pocket of low turnout Dem-leaning communities like Native Preservations and core parts of Anchorage where a little investment could go a long way for Biden. Trump only won by about 35k votes - Biden could find those 35k votes if he really wanted to.

TX is a state with a similar situation to AK except it's gigantic. Still, because it's seen minimal Dem investment in the recent past, the marginal benefit of spending money there is much higher than NC. In 2020 for instance, Rs outspent Ds in TX by nearly 10x, yet the state still swung and trended left. I also made a thread discussing reasons why TX has some underrated good signs for Dems under the surface.

I think both AK and TX are easier wins for Biden than NC.

A reminder that easier doesn't necessary mean more likely - for a variety of reasons I expect Biden and national Dems to spend more on NC than TX or AK, but I think it'd take less resources to flip TX or AK than NC. I also think AK on a per-capita basis is still a worse investment for Dems than NC, even if in absolute terms it technically is an "easier" flip.

I agree, NC probably won't flip even with a strong Biden victory. Its a very stubborn state. Pretty unusual, rural areas already vote Democrat at higher levels compared to other southern states. Its the only reason NC was competeive these last few election cycles to begin with. Yes, the cities are growing. But Republicans can still grow at the rural area.

I really think Alaska can be one with more investment. It would require Peltola to win a strong victory to help Biden buts she is really popular

A win in Alaska means Peltola could win the 2026 Alaskan senate race

Democrats have high floors in these rural areas because of the black population being fairly high in Eastern NC.

A Biden win in NC likely means something between 2020-2022 in the rural eastern counties and Cooper like margins in Wake, Guilford, Mecklenberg.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

TX isn't flipping. Maybe maybe some campaign on rural health access to abortion could flip AK.

[emailking]

Could be a difference between what is the "easiest" flip if he tried, and which comes the closest to flipping or flips by the most.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

TX isn't flipping. Maybe maybe some campaign on rural health access to abortion could flip AK.

AK already has the most liberal abortion laws in the country under decades of GOP control. I don’t know that this is such a compelling issue there.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Alaska is incredibly overrated for Biden. The state has had pretty much close to net zero population changes in the last few years. (I think it netted like 130 people from 2022-2023). Trump carried the state outright with 51% in 2016 and around 53% in 2020 means RCV wouldn't be an issue for him. The only way Biden can win the state is find a way to win over 2x Trump voters which seems pretty unlikely. Yes, Peltola will probably win but she is not comparable to Biden as she is more pro-Alaska on issues like guns and oil, where as Biden is touting the generic Dem line. Alaska is a Republican leaning state which could vote for the right Dem(Begich, Pelola) against the wrong Republican (Stevens, Palin) but it isn't going to vote for a DNC stock Dem.

If ME-02 can split their votes for Trump and Golden, I don't think its that out of the ordinary for Alaska to split ballots for Trump and Peltola.


I just don't know how Biden is going to carry Texas right now. If he couldn't take it in 2020 when everything was going his way, how is he going to carry it now when he is more unpopular than ever? He might improve in the margins but its still very unlikely he wins it. But let's just say for sake of example he does succeed and Texas flips blue. I'm pretty confident that the suburban areas in NC also shifted left enough for that state to still be bluer than Texas.

TX isn't flipping. Maybe maybe some campaign on rural health access to abortion could flip AK.

AK already has the most liberal abortion laws in the country under decades of GOP control. I don’t know that this is such a compelling issue there.

Yeah this puzzles me. ME-02 is probably just as pro-choice as Alaska, but no one suggests that the abortion issue will cost Trump that electoral vote.

[Alben Barkley]

FL is the easiest flip for him, but at this point Biden is unlikely to expand the map.

Like clockwork lol. When I read the thread title, I thought "I bet riverwalk is claiming it's Florida" and lo and behold!