Biggest unexplained WTF results you've seen?
EJ24:
What are some weird outlier results that you've seen in an election where the trend of the overall night was completely reversed in one particular race or area?
A couple of examples: I remember being really impressed that Maggie Hassan took down an incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte in 2016 while Hillary only beat Trump by about 3k votes.
Also 2018, I couldn't understand how during a blue wave, Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott both won their races over what I thought were much better opponents. Wouldn't look as strange now, but it seemed that way that year.
Some of the stuff with the overall hispanic vote swinging so hard to Trump in 2020, especially in south Texas shocked me.
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better:
Pennsylvania's 6th district. This was kind of a forum meme for a bit. The current PA-06 is much cleaner than the boundaries of this at the time and not really comparable but anyway:
2004:
Jim Gerlach (R-inc): 51%
Lois Murphy (D): 49%
(This is a seat that voted 52-48 for John Kerry that same election.)
2006:
Jim Gerlach (R-inc): 50.7%
Lois Murphy (D): 49.3%
...during a D wave election when the Democrats picked up four other seats in Pennsylvania, all of which were much lower priority targets than this one!
2008:
Jim Gerlach (R-inc): 52.1
Bob Roggio (D): 47.9%
Obama carried it 58-41 that same election.
Gerlach won easily the next few elections but retired in 2014. The Republicans held his seat (which was gerrymandered to be even more Republican and Romney carried it) but it flipped after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ordered redistricting. I'd imagine even the original district wouldn't be winnable for a Republican today...but still definitely an ingenious gerrymander at the time.
mileslunn:
Obama winning Indiana was one as unlike Colorado and Virginia which were trending Democrat or North Carolina which was and has still stayed close, they seemed like a one off fluke as wasn't close prior to 2008 and hasn't been since. Montana was also close to that as Obama came fairly close to winning it in 2008 but in all other elections this century, GOP has won it by double digits.
Fancyarcher:
Quote from: mileslunn on January 24, 2024, 02:13:14 PM
Obama winning Indiana was one as unlike Colorado and Virginia which were trending Democrat or North Carolina which was and has still stayed close, they seemed like a one off fluke as wasn't close prior to 2008 and hasn't been since. Montana was also close to that as Obama came fairly close to winning it in 2008 but in all other elections this century, GOP has won it by double digits.
Indiana 2008 has actually been discussed to death. That was a one time phenomenon caused largely by the financial crisis. People say that Obama being in the Chicago Market helped him too, but I always thought that was overstated.
ProgressiveModerate:
Quote from: Fancyarcher on January 24, 2024, 04:34:46 PM
Quote from: mileslunn on January 24, 2024, 02:13:14 PM
Obama winning Indiana was one as unlike Colorado and Virginia which were trending Democrat or North Carolina which was and has still stayed close, they seemed like a one off fluke as wasn't close prior to 2008 and hasn't been since. Montana was also close to that as Obama came fairly close to winning it in 2008 but in all other elections this century, GOP has won it by double digits.
Indiana 2008 has actually been discussed to death. That was a one time phenomenon caused largely by the financial crisis. People say that Obama being in the Chicago Market helped him too, but I always thought that was overstated.
Another part of the reason was Obama actually spent in the state while McCain bailed, which is why it swung harder left than states where both sides spent heavily like OH and PA.
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