How would the election have gone had Covid never happened?

[Samof94]

It is obvious the Pandemic became the main issue of the election for obvious reasons.  What if the disease simply never existed?

[mileslunn]

Hard to say.  Probably would have given Trump slight edge as economy was doing well, but hubris might have defeated him as he tends to overplay his hand.  Biggest difference is regardless of outcome, would have known winner much sooner and you wouldn't have had red and blue mirages you saw on election night or at least would have disappeared within a few hours and made more sense (i.e. which counties reporting not totally weird results like you saw). 

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Trump wins

[SnowLabrador]

Trump would have won, and it wouldn't have been close. It's clear now that Biden only won (and even then barely) because of Trump's criminal negligence at best, genocide at worst.

[wnwnwn]

Nobody knows. Maybe an economic crisis could have still happened, and nobody could blame ir to a virus nor China.

[Zenobiyl]

Trump almost certainly would have won.

[One Term Floridian]

I don't think we should underestimate the better Democratic ground game that would have happened without COVID. I think states like Florida, North Carolina and Texas would have been closer without COVID lockdowns and better Democratic canvassing.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't think we should underestimate the better Democratic ground game that would have happened without COVID. I think states like Florida, North Carolina and Texas would have been closer without COVID lockdowns and better Democratic canvassing.

That's actually a fair point. In hindsight, that should have been a red flag that Trump was more competitive than polls suggested.

[oldtimer]

Hard to say.  Probably would have given Trump slight edge as economy was doing well, but hubris might have defeated him as he tends to overplay his hand.  Biggest difference is regardless of outcome, would have known winner much sooner and you wouldn't have had red and blue mirages you saw on election night or at least would have disappeared within a few hours and made more sense (i.e. which counties reporting not totally weird results like you saw). 

We do know that pollsters in 2020 predicted Biden's share correctly on average, so we can make a guess.

Biden pre-corona: 48-50%

So Trump ought to have done at least 1.5% better than his actual 2020 result.

I guess Biden 49.5 Trump 48.5 , and no change from 2016 apart from Trump winning Nevada.

[dw93]

Give or take PA.

[Redban]

The polling remained stable the whole election cycle, pre-Covid and post-Covid. The polls, of course, were wrong, as they predicted Biden would win by Obama-2008 or Clinton-1992 levels. But that polling didn't change might suggest the result would have been the same?

I think that, without Covid, the race riots would have been an even bigger issue, dominating the public.  And the Ukraine phone-call impeachment wouldn't have fallen out of public eye, as it did. So Trump would've had his vulnerabilities without Covid

One wildcard for Trump's favor is that Biden wouldn't have been able to hide away for long stretches. People would've seen him, he would've made more gaffes, and he might not have been able to keep the aura of a moderate generic (D).

I would say that, without Covid, Biden would've still won

[Vice President Christian Man]

We'd be likely to face a recession which I think would hurt Trump nearly as badly as Covid did. WI would be a coin toss but for the sake of this scenario I'll give it to Biden. NV would go to Biden by FL Bush 2000 margins leading to a court challenge where they'd side with Trump. We'd see a more popular 1/6 as his "stolen election" valor would have more credence, although like OTL it wouldn't be successful. "Stack the courts" would no longer be a fringe movement and if they campaign on that and Dobbs still happens, I think it'll hurt the Dems about as much as Dobbs hurt the GOP leading to the anticipated red wave. Biden might take the midterm results as a wake-up call but maybe not which could lead to more funding in swing states although that's not clear. Other than that things largely remain the same.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The polling remained stable the whole election cycle, pre-Covid and post-Covid. The polls, of course, were wrong, as they predicted Biden would win by Obama-2008 or Clinton-1992 levels. But that polling didn't change might suggest the result would have been the same?

I think that, without Covid, the race riots would have been an even bigger issue, dominating the public.  And the Ukraine phone-call impeachment wouldn't have fallen out of public eye, as it did. So Trump would've had his vulnerabilities without Covid

One wildcard for Trump's favor is that Biden wouldn't have been able to hide away for long stretches. People would've seen him, he would've made more gaffes, and he might not have been able to keep the aura of a moderate generic (D).

I would say that, without Covid, Biden would've still won

I don't think the racial unrest happens at all without covid.  I think people often overestimate the butterfly effect, but this seems like a classic case of it.  George Floyd may never have died at all, but, even if he did, I don't think the protests are as big in a non-covid world where people weren't already frustrated and on edge.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Assuming no pandemic, race riots, or recession?

Trump probably wins with the same map as 2016 minus Michigan and NE-02. He does better in Florida and Wisconsin, around the same in Pennsylvania, and worse in Arizona and Georgia.