In a Trumpless Field, How would a Hawley 2024 be doing?

[Huey Long is a Republican]

As we have seen, there have been numerous problems with the DeSantis Campaign in the last year, from being too online to his lack of Charisma to hiring people like Jeff Roe to run his campaign. Another big problem, however, is the Trump factor and how much Donald Trump being in the race severely hurt him.

If Trump had died, that would open the Republican field up quite a bit though some of the people who ran in 2016 would probably opt out of 2024 for one reason or another. I also doubt that DeSantis wouldn't make the same mistakes he made OTL, which hurt him. He has been building a campaign since 2021 and the team he built was unlikely to change.

However, there is a pick that is kinda left behind in the talk of Trump's successor and that's Class I Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri. True, he had some involvement with the Jan 6th, but he wasn't THE Guy at the head of it like Trump is, so the attack wouldn't stick as much. However, the question isn't how would Hawley 24 in a General, it's how would Hawley 24 do in a Primary against DeSantis, Haley, Hutchinson, Christie, Scott, Pence + others, including Rand Paul, Rick Scott, Brian Kemp, Glenn Youngkin, Tom Cotton, Joni Ernst, Chris Sununu, Eric Holcomb, Kristi Noem, Doug Burgum, Pete Ricketts, Greg Abbott, etc, etc if died before announcing?

[Banana Republican]

He would be hurt by the footage of him fleeing from January 6 and as a result would have about as much support as Chris Christie got.

On the other hand, if instead of fleeing he had instead JOINED the crowd and stormed the capitol along with them, and if perhaps there was footage of him beating up a (black) Capitol police officer with a cane on the floor of the Senate (like Preston Brooks of old), and if he were facing 97 felony indictments and about 10 separate criminal and civil trials across multiple jurisdictions for his participation in January 6 and for his other various crimes, then he would be winning by at least 30 points or so against the rest of the field.

But alas, brave Sir Hawley bravely ran away.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, he certainly has experience in running hard.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I think he would have decent support from the MAGA crowd and be one of the frontrunners.

[Pericles]

I imagine he'd have even more of DeSantis's problem where he just doesn't have the personality for it.

[AltWorlder]

Both Hawley and Tom Cotton have gone from the big bad young clean articulate populist bogeymen of the post-Trump future, to total has-beens who fizzled out before they even started burning. Totally unremarkable. No rizz, as the kids say.

JD Vance has eaten their lunches.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Both Hawley and Tom Cotton have gone from the big bad young clean articulate populist bogeymen of the post-Trump future, to total has-beens who fizzled out before they even started burning. Totally unremarkable. No rizz, as the kids say.

JD Vance has eaten their lunches.

I do think Vance might have ended Hawley's career lol, because even if you dislike both, any appeal Hawley has Vance has more.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Both Hawley and Tom Cotton have gone from the big bad young clean articulate populist bogeymen of the post-Trump future, to total has-beens who fizzled out before they even started burning. Totally unremarkable. No rizz, as the kids say.

JD Vance has eaten their lunches.

I do think Vance might have ended Hawley's career lol, because even if you dislike both, any appeal Hawley has Vance has more.

Agreed in the sense of 2028 or 2032. In 2024, however, Vance would be a fresh Senator at the very start of his first term, unlike Hawley, who would have a full Senate Term under his belt, and Cotton, who would have two and I don't think Vance would immediately run for President after just being elected.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

He decided not to run because he was doing poorly in a Trumpless field Cruz undoubtedly would have ran for Prez

[Burke Bro]

I'm kind of inclined to think that only another political outsider could handle the outrage of Trump's base in the event where Trump dies or is disqualified and build their own cult of personality around it. Someone like Tucker Carlson or Vivek Ramaswamy. Hawley is too professional and not as well known among the base.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Both Hawley and Tom Cotton have gone from the big bad young clean articulate populist bogeymen of the post-Trump future, to total has-beens who fizzled out before they even started burning. Totally unremarkable. No rizz, as the kids say.

JD Vance has eaten their lunches.

I do think Vance might have ended Hawley's career lol, because even if you dislike both, any appeal Hawley has Vance has more.

Agreed in the sense of 2028 or 2032. In 2024, however, Vance would be a fresh Senator at the very start of his first term, unlike Hawley, who would have a full Senate Term under his belt, and Cotton, who would have two and I don't think Vance would immediately run for President after just being elected.

I agree with that. I'm talking in terms of the future.

[Steve from Lambeth]

However, the question isn't how would Hawley 24 in a General, it's how would
[1] Hawley 24 do in a Primary against
[2] DeSantis,
[3] Haley,
[4] Hutchinson,
[5] Christie,
[6] Scott,
[7] Pence + others, including
[8] Rand Paul,
(9] Rick Scott,
[10] Brian Kemp,
[11] Glenn Youngkin,
[12] Tom Cotton,
[13] Joni Ernst,
[14] Chris Sununu,
[15] Eric Holcomb,
[16] Kristi Noem,
[17] Doug Burgum,
[18] Pete Ricketts,
[19] Greg Abbott,
[20] etc, etc if died before announcing?

Imagine watching Mrs Doubtfire. It is a movie about a comedian in 1990s San Francisco who goes to court to fight his impendent divorce, loses, and voluntarily decides to start posing as the eponymous nanny so he can spend a few hours every day with his three children. That is what a normal primary looks like.

Now imagine watching a movie about a comedian in 1990s San Francisco who goes to court to fight his boss, loses, and is sentenced to go to back in time to 1920s West Virginia and teach woodworking to a class of twenty pupils he's never dealt with before - half of whom have only a superficial interest in woodworking and would much rather be down the coal mines - for a couple of hours a week over an entire semester. That is what your primary will look like.

Would you rather watch Mrs Doubtfire or my West Virginia movie?

No candidate in a Republican primary where there are nineteen other serious candidates will carry more than 600 delegates or so, unless there is an immense wave of dropouts before Super Tuesday.

[Whale Psychiatrist]

However, the question isn't how would Hawley 24 in a General, it's how would
[1] Hawley 24 do in a Primary against
[2] DeSantis,
[3] Haley,
[4] Hutchinson,
[5] Christie,
[6] Scott,
[7] Pence + others, including
[8] Rand Paul,
(9] Rick Scott,
[10] Brian Kemp,
[11] Glenn Youngkin,
[12] Tom Cotton,
[13] Joni Ernst,
[14] Chris Sununu,
[15] Eric Holcomb,
[16] Kristi Noem,
[17] Doug Burgum,
[18] Pete Ricketts,
[19] Greg Abbott,
[20] etc, etc if died before announcing?

Imagine watching Mrs Doubtfire. It is a movie about a comedian in 1990s San Francisco who goes to court to fight his impendent divorce, loses, and voluntarily decides to start posing as the eponymous nanny so he can spend a few hours every day with his three children. That is what a normal primary looks like.

Now imagine watching a movie about a comedian in 1990s San Francisco who goes to court to fight his boss, loses, and is sentenced to go to back in time to 1920s West Virginia and teach woodworking to a class of twenty pupils he's never dealt with before - half of whom have only a superficial interest in woodworking and would much rather be down the coal mines - for a couple of hours a week over an entire semester. That is what your primary will look like.

Would you rather watch Mrs Doubtfire or my West Virginia movie?

No candidate in a Republican primary where there are nineteen other serious candidates will carry more than 600 delegates or so, unless there is an immense wave of dropouts before Super Tuesday.

I'd rather watch your bizarro West Virginia movie, for what it's worth, but I see your point that it's entirely apples to oranges. But keep in mind there were at least 19 mostly-serious candidates in the 2020 Dem primary, and there in fact was a massive wave of dropouts right before Super Tuesday, and also, if Trump dies in the midst of his stolen election conspiracy, the GOP would probably devolve into such infighting to make all of this meaningless in a completely different way. I wouldn't be surprised if that's the universe where they actually nominate Q-Anon.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

I'm kind of inclined to think that only another political outsider could handle the outrage of Trump's base in the event where Trump dies or is disqualified and build their own cult of personality around it. Someone like Tucker Carlson or Vivek Ramaswamy. Hawley is too professional and not as well known among the base.

I agree on some level here, but consider that by 2024, there were three prominent heir apparents to Trump : Ron DeSantis, Tom Cotton & Josh Hawley. Tucker Carlson likely would lead the movement until a new President was elected, so I could see Tucker being very influential with the grassroots and whatever he says goes for the party base, though I don't see him running. He probably just wouldn't be interested in being President (He's made it clear he prefers to be the voice of the movement, but not the President), meanwhile, Vivek Ramaswammy can probably go a lot further here, but his lack of name recognition, Youth, Inexperience, and lack of true political knowhow of how the system works, but I can see him reaching at least Super Tuesday ittl before dropping out, likely endorsing Hawley. He probably carries at least one state, maybe two or three, but it wouldn't be enough. However, who he endorses would probably win the Primaries.

Both Hawley and Tom Cotton have gone from the big bad young clean articulate populist bogeymen of the post-Trump future, to total has-beens who fizzled out before they even started burning. Totally unremarkable. No rizz, as the kids say.

JD Vance has eaten their lunches.

I do think Vance might have ended Hawley's career lol, because even if you dislike both, any appeal Hawley has Vance has more.

Agreed in the sense of 2028 or 2032. In 2024, however, Vance would be a fresh Senator at the very start of his first term, unlike Hawley, who would have a full Senate Term under his belt, and Cotton, who would have two and I don't think Vance would immediately run for President after just being elected.

I agree with that. I'm talking in terms of the future.

Yeah. I do think Vance is the future of the party while Cotton and Hawley either get Senate Leadership upgrades or Cabinet positions in a Vance Cabinet. I'd be happy with either in the spot of Attorney General, just keep Cotton away from State or Defense.

However, the question isn't how would Hawley 24 in a General, it's how would
[1] Hawley 24 do in a Primary against
[2] DeSantis,
[3] Haley,
[4] Hutchinson,
[5] Christie,
[6] Scott,
[7] Pence + others, including
[8] Rand Paul,
(9] Rick Scott,
[10] Brian Kemp,
[11] Glenn Youngkin,
[12] Tom Cotton,
[13] Joni Ernst,
[14] Chris Sununu,
[15] Eric Holcomb,
[16] Kristi Noem,
[17] Doug Burgum,
[18] Pete Ricketts,
[19] Greg Abbott,
[20] etc, etc if died before announcing?

Imagine watching Mrs Doubtfire. It is a movie about a comedian in 1990s San Francisco who goes to court to fight his impendent divorce, loses, and voluntarily decides to start posing as the eponymous nanny so he can spend a few hours every day with his three children. That is what a normal primary looks like.

Now imagine watching a movie about a comedian in 1990s San Francisco who goes to court to fight his boss, loses, and is sentenced to go to back in time to 1920s West Virginia and teach woodworking to a class of twenty pupils he's never dealt with before - half of whom have only a superficial interest in woodworking and would much rather be down the coal mines - for a couple of hours a week over an entire semester. That is what your primary will look like.

Would you rather watch Mrs Doubtfire or my West Virginia movie?

No candidate in a Republican primary where there are nineteen other serious candidates will carry more than 600 delegates or so, unless there is an immense wave of dropouts before Super Tuesday.

Interesting Arguement, but may I remind you

1) 2016 GOP Primaries, where we had 16-17 Candidates at one point before it was whittled down to Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich with it really ending up as a Trump v Cruz race. Several Candidates stayed to Iowa and New Hampshire before dropping out (Huckabee, Santorum, Paul, Christie for example)

2) 2020 Dem Primaries, where there were, as IfH said, at least 19 or more candidates at once time until South Carolina basically decided the race thanks to Clyburn's endorsement that saved Biden's campaign.

[AltWorlder]

Has Hawley or Cotton even done anything legislatively remarkable. I’m aware that Hawley tries, between ginning up his economic populism by occasionally reaching across the aisle with on antitrust stuff to attack woke Silicon Valley, or grandstand about other culture war nonsense. But it doesn’t seem to garner him any sort of darling attention. He seems to be yet another pet of punditry.

Here’s hoping Kunce scares the living daylights out of him.

[Coldstream]

Hawley has always been overrated, Haley would beat him.

Republicans aren’t ideological enough to follow someone just because they agree with Trump on a philosophical level, they need something to follow. Hawley isn’t that. Maybe Cotton or Vance is, but I feel like they’d both fall down from being too clever & overthinking it.

[Medal506]

He decided not to run because he was doing poorly in a Trumpless field Cruz undoubtedly would have ran for Prez

I remember in 2022 he was considering running for president even if Trump was in the race. I guess it was smart for him to just run for re election since he has a decent chance at getting another 6 year term. I do wish DeSantis or Pence would have won the primary this year though.

[Stranger in a strange land]

He would have crashed and burned, probably worse than DeSantis: in addition to everything that's already been mentioned, the damage that the security camera footage of him running away on January 6 did to his career can't be overstated because it's a highly memeable clip that makes him look cowardly and hypocritical.

[ShadowRocket]

Both Hawley and Tom Cotton have gone from the big bad young clean articulate populist bogeymen of the post-Trump future, to total has-beens who fizzled out before they even started burning. Totally unremarkable. No rizz, as the kids say.

JD Vance has eaten their lunches.

Maybe not so bold of a prediction, but I can see JD Vance becoming President one day.  Possibly as soon as 2028 in the event of a Biden reelection.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

He would have crashed and burned, probably worse than DeSantis: in addition to everything that's already been mentioned, the damage that the security camera footage of him running away on January 6 did to his career can't be overstated because it's a highly memeable clip that makes him look cowardly and hypocritical.

Literally nobody would care, especially in a GOP primary lmao

[Huey Long is a Republican]

He would have crashed and burned, probably worse than DeSantis: in addition to everything that's already been mentioned, the damage that the security camera footage of him running away on January 6 did to his career can't be overstated because it's a highly memeable clip that makes him look cowardly and hypocritical.

Literally nobody would care, especially in a GOP primary lmao

Also, for anyone who says Haley would beat everyone, Her Foreign Policy is the same as Cotton's and a lot of Trumpians will like his economically populist rhetoric while neocons will like his McCainite Foreign Policy, sucking up a lot of Haley's support and likely making her the Scott Walker/Kamala Harris of the cycle, someone overhyped by the media and seen as someone who will do well in the primaries with ease only to crash and burn hard due to a bad debate performance or someone else stealing the spotlight. Her campaign would go from "I'm a woman but I'm also harsh against Putin and Palestine while having nothing to economically offer outside of Austerity and ideas from twenty years ago!" to "I'm a woman who has the same foreign policy views as my opponent but none of the economic rhetoric!"

I could actually see Haley dropping out early if Cotton in the race simply because his presence along with Christie's makes the race much, much harder on the both of them.

[The Mamdani Virus]

In a Trumpless field, Ron DeSantis would be at 60% and wouldn't have crashed and burned because he'd do way fewer media appearances.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

He may after all win his race v Kunce I had him more vulnerable than Cruz but he will never be Prez they will need someone in 28 aside from Youngkin but if it's Harris and Moore v R Field it's still a 3o3 map the S map is the same as 22

MO IS JUST TOO RED TO ELECT A SOCIALIST D KUNCE BUT TX ISNT

[Huey Long is a Republican]

In a Trumpless field, Ron DeSantis would be at 60% and wouldn't have crashed and burned because he'd do way fewer media appearances.

DeSantis' entire campaign is Florida and Culture War,with creates Drama and ruined him. Plus, his campaign is filled with Cruz 2016 people. He might be a leading frontrunner into late 2024, but as he flounders in the debates, he'd likely hit third or fourth in polling behind people like Ramaswammy, Hawley, and Cotton. I personally think that the problems with DeSantis' 2024 Campaign is integral to DeSantis himself and wouldn't change regardless if Trump ran or not. If he had better political sense, he would have done a complete cabinet reshuffle by late 2024 and do a hard campaign reboot and refocus on new issues like economics. But he didn't, which is a major failure on his end and shows that his 2024 campaign was doomed from the start.

[Meclazine for Israel]

He's very smart and very articulate.

Just needs to pick his battles better. As an attorney general, he has an in depth approach to arguing a point. It's just some of the topics he fights about (A.I. and Vaccines) are dead ends before you start.

In the right environment, he would make a great leader.