New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread

[wbrocks67]

NY Times seems to have stopped updating and we've got the nominal results so I'm closing those tabs.

Looks like they're slowly updating again, Biden now at 58.4% with unprocessed write-ins down to 6.3%. I guess they're still doing it their way town by town vs just ingesting the NH SOS overall results

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1750490158917464121

[wbrocks67]

Interested to see where NYT's total ends up. They've now hit 124K votes (Biden up to 60.9% so still counting write-ins), but that seems to be higher than NH SOS's total of 122k? Unless they're not finished yet either.

If we get 124K+, we'll officially hit 50%+ of 2016 Dem primary turnout.

[wbrocks67]

Interested to see where NYT's total ends up. They've now hit 124K votes (Biden up to 60.9% so still counting write-ins), but that seems to be higher than NH SOS's total of 122k? Unless they're not finished yet either.

If we get 124K+, we'll officially hit 50%+ of 2016 Dem primary turnout.

CNN tally:
Biden — 65.5% (79,470)
Phillips — 20.0% (24,315)
Williamson — 4.1% (4,933)

CNN now has 2K+ votes more for Biden that NH SOS has, so I guess that was not an official count

[jaichind]

Interested to see where NYT's total ends up. They've now hit 124K votes (Biden up to 60.9% so still counting write-ins), but that seems to be higher than NH SOS's total of 122k? Unless they're not finished yet either.

If we get 124K+, we'll officially hit 50%+ of 2016 Dem primary turnout.

CNN tally:
Biden — 65.5% (79,470)
Phillips — 20.0% (24,315)
Williamson — 4.1% (4,933)

CNN now has 2K+ votes more for Biden that NH SOS has, so I guess that was not an official count

I guess some of NYT Other Write-Ins are really Biden votes not officially counted as Biden yet

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Interested to see where NYT's total ends up. They've now hit 124K votes (Biden up to 60.9% so still counting write-ins), but that seems to be higher than NH SOS's total of 122k? Unless they're not finished yet either.

If we get 124K+, we'll officially hit 50%+ of 2016 Dem primary turnout.

CNN tally:
Biden — 65.5% (79,470)
Phillips — 20.0% (24,315)
Williamson — 4.1% (4,933)

CNN now has 2K+ votes more for Biden that NH SOS has, so I guess that was not an official count

The NH SOS count is official, but not final:

The 2024 Presidential Primary results posted are subject to change due to corrections issued from cities or towns.

[wbrocks67]

NYT:
Biden — 64.0% (79,456)
Phillips — 19.6% (24,326)
Williamson — 4.0% (5,006)
Other write-ins - 8.3% (10,267)

CNN:
Biden — 65.5% (79,470)
Phillips — 20.0% (24,315)
Williamson — 4.1% (4,933)
Other write-ins -

Totals have now pretty much converged, though it looks like the % are a bit different I guess depending on how each counted all the separate write-ins? CNN's doesn't have totals besides the top 3 candidates

[oldtimer]

Why is it treated as a surprise ?

From all the exit polls I guess Democrat voters made something just above 1/3rd in the GOP primary.

That doesn't make it a classic primary.

What makes them "Democrat voters"?   Registered Democrats can't vote in the Republican primary, only independents and Republicans can.  

There are self-id Democrats who aren't registed Democrats but say they are Indies, just like self-id Republicans, R's and D's arent just the 25-30% of voters who are nationally registered to them.

So here are the questions that betray the partisan self-ID, since it's unlikely a partisan Republican would answer the other way, so we can make a rough estimate:

Economy Good/Excellent =25%
Moderate/Liberal = 33%
Dislike Opponent = 19%
Don't wont Trump to win = 38%
Satisfied/Ethusiastic = 19%
Same as now =24%
Abortion/Foreign policy =28%
Right temperament =21%

So it can be anything between 19-38%

[Democrats Hate Leftists More Than Predators]

Bernie tries hard to win the primary and ekes out a margin against some small-town mayor, burning his cash. Biden wins without even being on the ballot.

Checkmate, Bros.

lol. How well did Biden do in that 2020 primary, again?

I'm a fan of both Bernie and Biden

And NH just isn't remotely representive of the nation as a whole. Like at all

I'm just saying if someone wants to compare NH primary performance, maybe don't do it to diminish the accomplishments of a candidate who ended up in 1st place while touting the candidate who ended up in 5th, when they ran against each other.

My brother in Christ do you know who I am

[jaichind]

How many of the "Other write-ins" are "ceasefire"?

[Eraserhead]

The amount of pointless write-ins for Nikki Haley in the Democratic Primary is really something. She nearly tied Williamson. 

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Results on the NH SOS website are being updated, they are now more in line with NYT, but not exactly the same.

https://www.sos.nh.gov/2024-democratic-presidential-primary-election-results

https://www.sos.nh.gov/2024-republican-presidential-primary-election-results

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

How many of the "Other write-ins" are "ceasefire"?

1497 in the D primary and 34 in the R primary.

See the links I posted above for results.

[Joe Biden 2028]

"Ceasefire" only got 1.2 %

Remember on election night, folks in this very thread thought half the write ins were for "ceasefire"

[Joe Biden 2028]

Results on the NH SOS website are being updated, they are now more in line with NYT, but not exactly the same.

https://www.sos.nh.gov/2024-democratic-presidential-primary-election-results

https://www.sos.nh.gov/2024-republican-presidential-primary-election-results

Do you still feel NH was a disaster for President Biden?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Results on the NH SOS website are being updated, they are now more in line with NYT, but not exactly the same.

https://www.sos.nh.gov/2024-democratic-presidential-primary-election-results

https://www.sos.nh.gov/2024-republican-presidential-primary-election-results

Do you still feel NH was a disaster for President Biden?

The thread you are referring to was from more than half a year ago and even the news media journalists at the time thought Biden would do badly in NH. He did slightly better than expected, but 64% isn't something to brag.

[Joe Biden 2028]

Results on the NH SOS website are being updated, they are now more in line with NYT, but not exactly the same.

https://www.sos.nh.gov/2024-democratic-presidential-primary-election-results

https://www.sos.nh.gov/2024-republican-presidential-primary-election-results

Do you still feel NH was a disaster for President Biden?

The thread you are referring to was from more than half a year ago and even the news media journalists at the time thought Biden would do badly in NH. He did slightly better than expected, but 64% isn't something to brag.

Actually, he should brag. 64% from write ins probably means he beats Obama's 81% if Biden was actually on the ballot and campaigned (yes, Obama campaigned in the 2012 NH primary and had an office)

That means President Biden is on track for re-election. Because he is the greatest president of my lifetime

So, here is my next question. 3 days after the results why are you just now acknowledging the thread you made?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

And in this primary, one of the things I've noticed about the town by town results on the Republican side is that Nikki Haley did very well in the town of Hanover and surrounding areas.
But Donald Trump won the state overall by around 11 points, and did well in the rural northern areas of the state including Colebrook and Berlin.

So I wonder what makes the Hanover area different than most of the rest of New Hampshire.

Highly educated but not very high income often translates to less Republican.

   

[Harlow]

Bernie tries hard to win the primary and ekes out a margin against some small-town mayor, burning his cash. Biden wins without even being on the ballot.

Checkmate, Bros.

lol. How well did Biden do in that 2020 primary, again?

I'm a fan of both Bernie and Biden

And NH just isn't remotely representive of the nation as a whole. Like at all

I'm just saying if someone wants to compare NH primary performance, maybe don't do it to diminish the accomplishments of a candidate who ended up in 1st place while touting the candidate who ended up in 5th, when they ran against each other.

My brother in Christ do you know who I am

No, lol. Should I?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

If Haley and Trump's write-in votes from the Dem. Primary were added to the Rep. Primary, Trump's winning margin would decrease to 10%, from 11%.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

If Haley and Trump's write-in votes from the Dem. Primary were added to the Rep. Primary, Trump's winning margin would decrease to 10%, from 11%.

If it had been a delegate allocating primary, would Haley have gotten a delegate in the Dem primary?

[The Mikado]

If Haley and Trump's write-in votes from the Dem. Primary were added to the Rep. Primary, Trump's winning margin would decrease to 10%, from 11%.

If it had been a delegate allocating primary, would Haley have gotten a delegate in the Dem primary?

No, because Dems have a 15% threshold for any delegates. Haley's 3.something % is way below 15.

Biden and Phillips would be the only people to get delegates.

Delegate math is weird due to districts vs state delegates but my rough and dirty math suggests that if NH had the 32 delegates it would've had with no penalties, the delegates would go 24 Biden 8 Phillips and 0 for anyone else.

[JohnAMacdonald]

If Haley and Trump's write-in votes from the Dem. Primary were added to the Rep. Primary, Trump's winning margin would decrease to 10%, from 11%.

If it had been a delegate allocating primary, would Haley have gotten a delegate in the Dem primary?

No, because Dems have a 15% threshold for any delegates. Haley's 3.something % is way below 15.

Biden and Phillips would be the only people to get delegates.

Delegate math is weird due to districts vs state delegates but my rough and dirty math suggests that if NH had the 32 delegates it would've had with no penalties, the delegates would go 24 Biden 8 Phillips and 0 for anyone else.

NH gives 24 delegates proportionally, the rest are unbound ''PLEO'' delegates (superdelegates

[The Mikado]

Good point, I didn't disaggregate the superdelegates. So 18-6. Could be 19-5 or 17-7 depending on the splits in the various Congressional districts, but 18-6 Biden-Phillips is a good estimate of what NH's delegates would've done if NH still had delegates.

[JohnAMacdonald]

Good point, I didn't disaggregate the superdelegates. So 18-6. Could be 19-5 or 17-7 depending on the splits in the various Congressional districts, but 18-6 Biden-Phillips is a good estimate of what NH's delegates would've done if NH still had delegates.

Doesn't it still have 10 delegates? According to the green papers it had 23 delegates pre-penalty (7 CD1, 8 CD2, 3 pledged PLEO and 5 At-Large delegates), assuming Biden won 77% of the 2 candidate vote everywhere (which seems reasonable), we get the following breakdown :
Biden     5   6  2  4 : 17
Phillips   2   2  1  1 : 6