New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread

[wbrocks67]

I think we'll get 250.000 votes on the Republican side and 50.000 on the Democratic side.

I think not less than 200k and no more than 300k for Republicans.

For Democrats, it could be as low as 30k, but as high as 100k, with many write-in votes for Biden.

I am not sure if write-in-Biden manages to win NH next week, but it's possible. There's a possibility that we'll get a total number of write-in votes cast on election night, without any names being counted first. But 99% of the total number will be Biden write-ins.

If the results are 42% Phillips, 36% "write-ins", 16% Williamson and 6% other candidates - we'll know that Biden received about 35% in NH.

Nah, should be considerably lower than that.

Btw, who do you people think will get the most write-ins other than Biden? I would guess Sanders or possibly even Trump.

I mean, maybe not 99%, but at least like 95%. If someone really wants to write-in Sanders or someone else, I doubt they're even going to bother to vote when they already have two other protest vote candidates on the ballot anyway.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I think we'll get 250.000 votes on the Republican side and 50.000 on the Democratic side.

I think not less than 200k and no more than 300k for Republicans.

For Democrats, it could be as low as 30k, but as high as 100k, with many write-in votes for Biden.

I am not sure if write-in-Biden manages to win NH next week, but it's possible. There's a possibility that we'll get a total number of write-in votes cast on election night, without any names being counted first. But 99% of the total number will be Biden write-ins.

If the results are 42% Phillips, 36% "write-ins", 16% Williamson and 6% other candidates - we'll know that Biden received about 35% in NH.

Why do you believe Biden will do poorly on New Hampshire?

36% would be a worst-case for Biden ... I don't think this is going to happen.

But Biden around 60 is possible.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I think we'll get 250.000 votes on the Republican side and 50.000 on the Democratic side.

I think not less than 200k and no more than 300k for Republicans.

For Democrats, it could be as low as 30k, but as high as 100k, with many write-in votes for Biden.

I am not sure if write-in-Biden manages to win NH next week, but it's possible. There's a possibility that we'll get a total number of write-in votes cast on election night, without any names being counted first. But 99% of the total number will be Biden write-ins.

If the results are 42% Phillips, 36% "write-ins", 16% Williamson and 6% other candidates - we'll know that Biden received about 35% in NH.

Nah, should be considerably lower than that.

Btw, who do you people think will get the most write-ins other than Biden? I would guess Sanders or possibly even Trump.

I was looking up 2020 write-ins in the NH Democratic primary.

It was only 0.5 percent of the total vote.

Assuming 60.000 votes are cast in the D primary next Tuesday and there are 60% write-in votes, that's 36.000 write-in votes.

0.5 percent other write-in votes than Biden would be 300 out of 60.000

36.000 write-in votes divided by 300 other write-in votes results in 0.8 percent other write-in votes and 99.2% of total write-in votes are for Biden.

In other words: Biden will win almost all write-in votes.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

If the initial vote count on Tuesday - hypothetically - shows:

56% "total write-ins"
27% Phillips
15% Williamson
  2% Others

... just divide the 56% by 1.01 or by 1.02 - and you get the Biden results.

[Eraserhead]

I think we'll get 250.000 votes on the Republican side and 50.000 on the Democratic side.

I think not less than 200k and no more than 300k for Republicans.

For Democrats, it could be as low as 30k, but as high as 100k, with many write-in votes for Biden.

I am not sure if write-in-Biden manages to win NH next week, but it's possible. There's a possibility that we'll get a total number of write-in votes cast on election night, without any names being counted first. But 99% of the total number will be Biden write-ins.

If the results are 42% Phillips, 36% "write-ins", 16% Williamson and 6% other candidates - we'll know that Biden received about 35% in NH.

Nah, should be considerably lower than that.

Btw, who do you people think will get the most write-ins other than Biden? I would guess Sanders or possibly even Trump.

I was looking up 2020 write-ins in the NH Democratic primary.

It was only 0.5 percent of the total vote.

Assuming 60.000 votes are cast in the D primary next Tuesday and there are 60% write-in votes, that's 36.000 write-in votes.

0.5 percent other write-in votes than Biden would be 300 out of 60.000

36.000 write-in votes divided by 300 other write-in votes results in 0.8 percent other write-in votes and 99.2% of total write-in votes are for Biden.

In other words: Biden will win almost all write-in votes.

Should we really look at the number of write-ins in a competitive year where there were numerous serious candidates to choose from? I would look more at a year like 2012.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/1748164882422202457?t=b3lh_APRqt2X2Hog3c...

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/1748164882422202457?t=b3lh_APRqt2X2Hog3c...

That's one pathetic goal post.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/1748164882422202457?t=b3lh_APRqt2X2Hog3c...

LOL talking about lowering expectations!

[wbrocks67]

Marist has a NH poll out today; oddly they didn't poll the actual primary, but they did do favorability among Republicans/Republican-leaning Independents:

Trump fav: 75/23 (+52)
DeSantis fav: 53/26 (+27)
Haley fav: 45/38 (+7)

Shows the uphill battle Haley faces; she has a ceiling.

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Marist-Poll_NH-NOS-and-Tables_202401181559.pdf

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/1748164882422202457?t=b3lh_APRqt2X2Hog3c...

That's one pathetic goal post.

When Haley inevitably drops out, I imagine No Labels will get a bump in support.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/1748164882422202457?t=b3lh_APRqt2X2Hog3c...

That's one pathetic goal post.

When Haley inevitably drops out, I imagine No Labels will get a bump in support.

It's probably already too late launch a serious 3rd party bid that this point.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AFJacobs/status/1748375825999651041?s=20

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1748407007445479494

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/1748164882422202457?t=b3lh_APRqt2X2Hog3c...

That's one pathetic goal post.

And a fast moving one at that.

[Mopsus]

Honestly more interested in the results from the bizarre Democratic Primary.

This. The results from the Democratic side have the potential to be more interesting than “Trump wins by 15 or so”.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

Donald Trump already laying the groundwork for future whining if he loses New Hampshire:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-misinformation-new-hampshire-voters-democrats-infiltrate-gop-primary/

Former President Donald Trump's closing message to New Hampshire voters contains falsehoods about the upcoming primary election, including a baseless claim that Democrats are planning to "infiltrate" the primary to support former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

"Nikki Haley is counting on Democrats and liberals to infiltrate your Republican primary," Trump said to a small ballroom filled with supporters in Portsmouth Wednesday evening, before blaming New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu for the state's primary system, which allows undeclared voters — which make up 40% of the state's registered voters — to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary on Jan. 23.

Trump repeated the same unfounded claims to a crowd of over 1,000 in Atkinson, New Hampshire, Tuesday night, and inaccurately stated that Democrats want to "cancel out" votes for him.

Of the state's more than 873,000 registered voters, just 3,542 voters changed their registration from Democrat to undeclared before the state's Oct. 6 deadline, and just 408 Democrats changed their registration to Republican.

One of the few things worse than Donald Trump are the people who vote for him.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1748407007445479494

My guess is:

Republican primary: 264.000
Democratic primary: 101.000

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

I’m guessing Trump by 20 in NH, which could still make it the “closest” contest on the Republican side.

[wbrocks67]

If Dem turnout actually reaches 100,000, I'd call that a success. Curious what it will look like - the grassroots Write-in Biden campaign seems surprisingly robust all things considered.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1748407007445479494

My guess is:

Republican primary: 264.000
Democratic primary: 101.000

I think that's massively high on the Dem side. 70-80k seems more realistic to me.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/lisakashinsky/status/1748762660437401853

[Mr. Smith]

Honestly more interested in the results from the bizarre Democratic Primary.

This. The results from the Democratic side have the potential to be more interesting than “Trump wins by 15 or so”.

Idk, this could just be Michigan '08 all over again.

[Harlow]

Not important enough for its own thread, but Asa! has endorsed Nikki Haley.

https://twitter.com/AsaHutchinson/status/1748810875777978750?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

[Yelnoc]

Not important enough for its own thread, but Asa! has endorsed Nikki Haley.

https://twitter.com/AsaHutchinson/status/1748810875777978750?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Woah, he dropped out??? I thought Hutch was gonna go all the way.

[Eraserhead]

Marist has a NH poll out today; oddly they didn't poll the actual primary, but they did do favorability among Republicans/Republican-leaning Independents:

Trump fav: 75/23 (+52)
DeSantis fav: 53/26 (+27)
Haley fav: 45/38 (+7)

Shows the uphill battle Haley faces; she has a ceiling.

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Marist-Poll_NH-NOS-and-Tables_202401181559.pdf

Uphill battle? If that's accurate it's beyond over. If anything I'm surprised she's ahead of DeSantis with those numbers.