Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[Dwarven Dragon]

NYT seems really behind, only showing Trump with 23k vs. CNN with 26k

Haley now ahead in Polk while Trump also clears 53%.

NYT randomly removed a bunch of the Polk County returns it had.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current numbers are fiction.

Yes, it is obvious at least that Trump would win if the election were held today, and the people you're referring to need to wake up to that reality. We can argue about how bad a sign it is for Biden in November, but it's not GOOD at the least.

That's a strawman argument though.  Most would readily concede Biden would lose if the election were held today.  The argument is just that it is not held today, and Biden has months to turn it around.  He may or may not actually do so.

If today were November 5th, Biden would be an underdog in deep trouble... but it isn't November 5th. Donald Trump hasn't shoved his hate-filled orange-painted face in every American's TV and pulled a mix of whining and pretending to be Hitler for three straight months. Biden has barely started to taxi his national campaign for takeoff.  There are nine months of time still waiting to unfold, for good and for ill.

Right.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

Sums it up nicely:

https://twitter.com/BrendanBuck/status/1747070602089832479

It is worth wondering if going in on Trump over the indictments would have actually made this race more competitive. 52% is a fairly tepid number that could have been driven down had some of these candidates made a case against him.

But if they did that, their voters would threaten to kill them.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Ted Cruz is still the only person who beat Trump in Iowa.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

So Bob Dole's 13 point Iowa caucus win has finally been beaten.

[Crumpets]

NYT vote % counted just dropped from 39% to 38%. VERY FAKE RIGGED ELECTION ALERT

[NOVA Green]

Trump's numbers in Woodbury County really stand out compared to relatively populated counties in IA.

Is there something about Sioux City which makes this county such a Trump stronghold?

I get it that 18% of the workforce is in the MFG sector but what's up there?

Sure there's a large Tyson's Food plant but???

Maybe it's just a small rural precinct way outside of town?

Trump- 68%
Desantis- 14%
Haley- 5%

(57) TV with an est. ~3k to go per NYT.

[NOVA Green]

Haley now ahead in Polk while Trump also clears 53%.

Should be noted per NYT only 602 PUB votes counted in Polk.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

DeSantis campaign guy was very frustrated and very rude with Dasha Burns at NBC. Dodged every question and had a very accusatory tone about how the media shouldn't have called it when the caucus was still underway. Mocked the fact that entrance poll data and early returns were used to call it (and ignored that it was a blowout). Really shows how the DeSantis campaign is feeling right now.

[Crumpets]

Trump's numbers in Woodbury County really stand out compared to relatively populated counties in IA.

Is there something about Sioux City which makes this county such a Trump stronghold?

I get it that 18% of the workforce is in the MFG sector but what's up there?

Sure there's a large Tyson's Food plant but???

Maybe it's just a small rural precinct way outside of town?

Trump- 68%
Desantis- 14%
Haley- 5%

(57) TV with an est. ~3k to go per NYT.

Having visited Sioux City for the first time last year, I can say that the whole place smelled like meat rendering. I assume this makes smelling Trump's BS slightly more difficult. (Apologies to anyone from Sioux City on here, but it's true.)

[Banana Republican]

I have followed special elections that have been more exciting than this.

Actually, come to think of it, quite a lot of special elections that have been more exciting than this.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

It's kind of funny to me that the results seem to be coming in pretty consistently from east to west across the state, despite the fact that there is no time zone border within the state that would be a logical cause for a trend in returns being announced.

[DrScholl]

Sums it up nicely:

https://twitter.com/BrendanBuck/status/1747070602089832479

It is worth wondering if going in on Trump over the indictments would have actually made this race more competitive. 52% is a fairly tepid number that could have been driven down had some of these candidates made a case against him.

But if they did that, their voters would threaten to kill them.

Fortune favors the brave. If you don't try you don't win. Of course since a lot of those crazy people are serious the concern was well warranted.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Haley now a favorite again for 2nd place per the NYT needle

[Crumpets]

Looks like the Polk County issue was fixed.

[Coconut Decider]

Haley now a favorite again for 2nd place per the NYT needle

NYT down to 28% reporting.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

NYT Needle has Haley more likely to take 2nd than DeSantis again now.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Haley now a favorite again for 2nd place per the NYT needle

NYT down to 28% reporting.

And DeSantis shot up to an 88% favorite for 2nd now.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Now it just went to 88% likely DeSantis takes 2nd, 12% Haley. Not sure what just changed in the reporting.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's crazy that this state voted Barack Obama by nearly double digits not too long ago.

[Crumpets]

Hey Dinesh D'Souza, here's one for you:

[NOVA Green]

Trump's numbers in Woodbury County really stand out compared to relatively populated counties in IA.

Is there something about Sioux City which makes this county such a Trump stronghold?

I get it that 18% of the workforce is in the MFG sector but what's up there?

Sure there's a large Tyson's Food plant but???

Maybe it's just a small rural precinct way outside of town?

Trump- 68%
Desantis- 14%
Haley- 5%

(57) TV with an est. ~3k to go per NYT.

Having visited Sioux City for the first time last year, I can say that the whole place smelled like meat rendering. I assume this makes smelling Trump's BS slightly more difficult. (Apologies to anyone from Sioux City on here, but it's true.)

Could also have something do with being one of the top (5) most Latino counties in IA and a lot of RVs have better things to do like work on MLK Day rather than showing up with a bunch of grumpy old White fundies to do some weird caucus ritual.

[South Dakota Democrat]

It's crazy that this state voted Barack Obama by nearly double digits not too long ago.

It's been an odd state for years.  It was Dukakis's best state in the nation in 1988, and then four years later it was the only state in the nation to swing towards Republicans.

[Matty]

It's crazy that this state voted Barack Obama by nearly double digits not too long ago.

It's been an odd state for years.  It was Dukakis's best state in the nation in 1988, and then four years later it was the only state in the nation to swing towards Republicans.

It wasn’t his best state

Rhode Island was

[Fancyarcher]

It's crazy that this state voted Barack Obama by nearly double digits not too long ago.

Brain Drain is hell of a thing.