Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, the worst number tonight may be for Trump, with nearly 1/3 of GOP caucus voters saying that he's not fit for office if he's convicted.

If it's that high among a very conservative group like today, that's awful foreshadowing for a general electorate.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

NYTimes is still putting DeSantis at just 57% chance of second. Where's the call for that?

[heatcharger]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

This is true, everyone, myself included thought he was too optimistic but he was pretty much dead on.

How’d he do in 2020?

[wbrocks67]

Haley in third place right now in Dallas County. Not good.

She's leading DeSantis by 2 votes in the CNN count. Still not great, but slightly better.

I'm seeing DeSantis 20.3%, Haley 18.9% right now on CNN's site

[South Dakota Democrat]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

Thanks haha. Regardless, Alben has been extremely obsessed with being anti-Biden lately, so I'm not surprised by his comments. It's been a bit overboard.

Most posts of Alben's have annoyed me for years.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

This is true, everyone, myself included thought he was too optimistic but he was pretty much dead on.

I guess his horrific 2020 predictions and good 2022 predictions cancel each other out.

[heatcharger]

It looks like TRUMP is dominating the presidential election so far. Thank you!

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

Ignore Alben at your own peril. He has a better pulse of the electorate than anybody on either side.

[wbrocks67]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

This is true, everyone, myself included thought he was too optimistic but he was pretty much dead on.

How’d he do in 2020?

LOL I'm not a truth sayer. I'm just like the rest of y'all. I'm not right every time, I obviously know that. But there's been numerous things about elections in 2022 and 2023 that many on this forum have ignored, and have made them *much* different than 2020. My point is that some on this forum don't seem to want to want to see it. It's almost like 1/6 and Roe changes things!

[Andrew Cuomo is a No Go]

Honestly, the worst number tonight may be for Trump, with nearly 1/3 of GOP caucus voters saying that he's not fit for office if he's convicted.

If it's that high among a very conservative group like today, that's awful foreshadowing for a general electorate.

Are any of his criminal trials expected before the election? It seems unlikely to make a difference.

If he got nailed on the classified documents or January 6, that might actually move something. Otherwise I doubt it.

[Whale Psychiatrist]

Haley in third place right now in Dallas County. Not good.

Haha, what the hell did she expect?

Eternal war is not popular with anyone under 70.

Seriously though this idea of Haley (and democrats for that matter) as warmongers beholden entirely to Raytheon is baffling to me. There are more alternatives to "splendid isolation" than WW3.

[Mexican Wolf]

Haley in third place right now in Dallas County. Not good.

She's leading DeSantis by 2 votes in the CNN count. Still not great, but slightly better.

I'm seeing DeSantis 20.3%, Haley 18.9% right now on CNN's site

They're tied at 25.8%, from what I see on there. Maybe it hasn't updated for me yet.

[DrScholl]

Sums it up nicely:

https://twitter.com/BrendanBuck/status/1747070602089832479

It is worth wondering if going in on Trump over the indictments would have actually made this race more competitive. 52% is a fairly tepid number that could have been driven down had some of these candidates made a case against him.

[heatcharger]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

This is true, everyone, myself included thought he was too optimistic but he was pretty much dead on.

How’d he do in 2020?

LOL I'm not a truth sayer. I'm just like the rest of y'all. I'm not right every time, I obviously know that.

That’s true.

But midterms are not presidential elections. Presidential elections are fundamentally a personality contest and TRUMP has consistently been a strong performer.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, the worst number tonight may be for Trump, with nearly 1/3 of GOP caucus voters saying that he's not fit for office if he's convicted.

If it's that high among a very conservative group like today, that's awful foreshadowing for a general electorate.

Are any of his criminal trials expected before the election? It seems unlikely to make a difference.

If he got nailed on the documents or January 6, that might move something. Otherwise I doubt it.

The DC trial is the only one at this point that seems likely before the election, but who knows really

[OSR stands with Israel]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

This is true, everyone, myself included thought he was too optimistic but he was pretty much dead on.

How’d he do in 2020?

He predicted Biden would win FL :


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=410005.msg7721501#msg7721501

He also said Biden had a better chance of winning a landslide than Trump had of winning

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409640.msg7718459#msg7718459

[wbrocks67]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

This is true, everyone, myself included thought he was too optimistic but he was pretty much dead on.

How’d he do in 2020?

LOL I'm not a truth sayer. I'm just like the rest of y'all. I'm not right every time, I obviously know that.

That’s true.

But midterms are not presidential elections. Presidential elections are fundamentally a personality contest and TRUMP has consistently been a strong performer.

He hasn't though? He got 46-47% in both of his elections, both losing the popular vote, and Trump-ism itself has now been defeated in numerous elections as well. Trump has not been a winner for elections since 2016.

[wbrocks67]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

This is true, everyone, myself included thought he was too optimistic but he was pretty much dead on.

How’d he do in 2020?

He predicted Biden would win FL :


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=410005.msg7721501#msg7721501

He also said Biden had a better chance of winning a landslide than Trump had of winning

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409640.msg7718459#msg7718459

You all are really obsessed with me lmao. Didn't realize that predicting one election wrong means you can't be right ever again! I guess all of you are constantly correct all the time. Must be nice!

[wbrocks67]

Sums it up nicely:

https://twitter.com/BrendanBuck/status/1747070602089832479

It is worth wondering if going in on Trump over the indictments would have actually made this race more competitive. 52% is a fairly tepid number that could have been driven down had some of these candidates made a case against him.

Yep, it would've been extremely interesting to see if both DeSantis and Haley had hit Trump on the indictments and 1/6.

[Roll Roons]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

This is true, everyone, myself included thought he was too optimistic but he was pretty much dead on.

How’d he do in 2020?

He predicted Biden would win FL :


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=410005.msg7721501#msg7721501

He also said Biden had a better chance of winning a landslide than Trump had of winning

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409640.msg7718459#msg7718459

He was also very insistent that Brian Fitzpatrick was extremely vulnerable, although he seems to have some kind of personal hatred for Fitzpatrick.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current numbers are fiction.

Yes, it is obvious at least that Trump would win if the election were held today, and the people you're referring to need to wake up to that reality. We can argue about how bad a sign it is for Biden in November, but it's not GOOD at the least.

That's a strawman argument though.  Most would readily concede Biden would lose if the election were held today.  The argument is just that it is not held today, and Biden has months to turn it around.  He may or may not actually do so.

If today were November 5th, Biden would be an underdog in deep trouble... but it isn't November 5th. Donald Trump hasn't shoved his hate-filled orange-painted face in every American's TV and pulled a mix of whining and pretending to be Hitler for three straight months. Biden has barely started to taxi his national campaign for takeoff.  There are nine months of time still waiting to unfold, for good and for ill.

[Crumpets]

Haley now ahead in Polk while Trump also clears 53%.

[Dwarven Dragon]

Among those who decided in the last two weeks, Haley won, followed by DeSantis, with Trump in 3rd.

However, 64% of the electorate decided before that, and Trump won that vote by 64%-17% with DeSantis in 2nd and Haley in 3rd.

[wbrocks67]

NYT seems really behind, only showing Trump with 23k vs. CNN with 26k

[Andrew Cuomo is a No Go]

Honestly, the worst number tonight may be for Trump, with nearly 1/3 of GOP caucus voters saying that he's not fit for office if he's convicted.

If it's that high among a very conservative group like today, that's awful foreshadowing for a general electorate.

Are any of his criminal trials expected before the election? It seems unlikely to make a difference.

If he got nailed on the documents or January 6, that might move something. Otherwise I doubt it.

The DC trial is the only one at this point that seems likely before the election, but who knows really

That one could do some damage. It’s not as salient an issue as dems might hope, but the January 6 sh**t is a definite detriment to Trump. An actual conviction relating to it would hurt him with those who think the election wasn’t rigged (~65% of the population).