Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[wbrocks67]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Because the general election is tomorrow and not months from now.

Also, polling an active Republican primary is much different than polling a general.

[Dwarven Dragon]

Trump allocated 16 Delegates, DeSantis 4, Haley 4, 16 still to be decided

Donald J. Trump
23,705 +52.8%52.8%
16
Ron DeSantis
8,982 +20.0%20.0
4
Nikki Haley
8,396 +18.7%18.7
4
Vivek Ramaswamy
3,445 +7.7%7.7
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
281 +0.6%0.6
No delegates—
Asa Hutchinson
67 +0.1%0.1
No delegates—
Chris Christie
17 +0.0%<0.1
No delegates—
Other
36 +0.1%0.1
No delegates—

[South Dakota Democrat]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

[Alben Barkley]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

DDNN PROJECTION: Hutchinson will finish in SIXTH

Donald J. Trump
21,357    +51.9%51.9%  
No delegates—
Ron DeSantis
8,249    +20.1%20.1
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
7,978    +19.4%19.4
No delegates—
Vivek Ramaswamy
3,185    +7.7%7.7
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
247    +0.6%0.6
No delegates—
Asa Hutchinson
61    +0.1%0.1    
No delegates—
Chris Christie
18    +0.0%<0.1
No delegates—
Other
36    +0.1%0.1

Binkleymentum!

[wbrocks67]

This turnout is looking horrific, too.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

Are they actually arguing that Biden is in a good position though?  Or just that Biden can still win/it's not as bad as it seems?

[wbrocks67]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

You still haven't responded to the PA poll

[Alben Barkley]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

Are they actually arguing that Biden is in a good position though?  Or just that Biden can still win/it's not as bad as it seems?

He constantly spins every bad poll for Biden as not actually bad and every decent poll for Biden as proof that he will win. It's hackery.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This turnout is looking horrific, too.

It’s not surprising given the weather and lack of suspense.

[Stockdale for Veep]

Dems have confirmed that Iowa won't be anywhere near the front of the line in '28, right?

[Ferguson97]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

[DrScholl]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current numbers are fiction.

Yes, it is obvious at least that Trump would win if the election were held today, and the people you're referring to need to wake up to that reality. We can argue about how bad a sign it is for Biden in November, but it's not GOOD at the least.

That's a strawman argument though.  Most would readily concede Biden would lose if the election were held today.  The argument is just that it is not held today, and Biden has months to turn it around.  He may or may not actually do so.

Even that is a weak assumption. This race is totally based on turnout and there are a number of softer Biden supporters who won't plug in until it's time to vote. There is polling that suggests that a lot of people don't even think Trump will be the nominee which is contrary to what the reality of the primary is so there are plenty of people not tuned in.

[Fancyarcher]

DeSantis doing poorly was expected, but Haley ending up in third would be an epic failure for her.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

This turnout is looking horrific, too.

It’s not surprising given the weather and lack of suspense.

Indeed.

[Horus]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

This is true, everyone, myself included thought he was too optimistic but he was pretty much dead on.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

Reminder that I was just one or two seats off in my congressional prediction in 2022.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Haley in third place right now in Dallas County. Not good.

[wbrocks67]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current numbers are fiction.

Yes, it is obvious at least that Trump would win if the election were held today, and the people you're referring to need to wake up to that reality. We can argue about how bad a sign it is for Biden in November, but it's not GOOD at the least.

That's a strawman argument though.  Most would readily concede Biden would lose if the election were held today.  The argument is just that it is not held today, and Biden has months to turn it around.  He may or may not actually do so.

Even that is a weak assumption. This race is totally based on turnout and there are a number of softer Biden supporters who won't plug in until it's time to vote. There is polling that suggests that a lot of people don't even think Trump will be the nominee which is contrary to what the reality of the primary is so there are plenty of people not tuned in.

Exactly. The whole "if the election was today" argument makes no sense because it takes away everything about an actual campaign.

[Horus]

Haley in third place right now in Dallas County. Not good.

Haha, what the hell did she expect?

Eternal war is not popular with anyone under 70.

[wbrocks67]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

Thanks haha. Regardless, Alben has been extremely obsessed with being anti-Biden lately, so I'm not surprised by his comments. It's been a bit overboard.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Turnout is just 110.000, of more than 3 million, or 3-4%.

That is really low.

For example, Iowa's general election had 1.7 million votes in 2020.

[Mexican Wolf]

Haley in third place right now in Dallas County. Not good.

She's leading DeSantis by 2 votes in the CNN count. Still not great, but slightly better.

[DrScholl]

Dems have confirmed that Iowa won't be anywhere near the front of the line in '28, right?

Iowa is on Super Tuesday this year so I have to assume it will vote then in 2028.

[NOVA Green]

Dallas County (Upper income educated 'burb of Des Moines) is not really looking like is going the way Haley would like.

Per NYT--- 

Trump=   42%
DeSantis- 26%
Haley-      24%

(24% in and est 3.8k remaining).

Looks like Haley and DeSantis are cannibilizing chunks of the '16 PUB caucus voters...