Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[Roll Roons]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

How is Casey qualified to be Governor?

What state are you from and who's the frontrunner to be its next Senator?

Andy Kim...?

Who has the state Democratic party unanimously coalesced around?

That's a different question than frontrunner, lol. Kim is leading Tammy in polling by 20 point margins so far (albeit most of them internals).

Yeah, primary internals are often unreliable, especially with very few people paying attention. I'm not betting against the Line until I see a concrete reason to.

[Helsinkian]

Not to be too 'woke' here and I'm sure you're not the first one to start this, but could we please refer to her as Casey DeSantis? I'm sure nobody here is on a first name basis with her.  Also, I didn't know who 'Casey' was at first.

I mean, Hillary Clinton was commonly called just Hillary, and Trump is sometimes referred to as "The Donald".

[NOVA Green]

Wow!!!

These must be Absantee ballots!!!!

It's all rigged!!!

Just kidding but yeah pretty big dump there and got to have a cig before parsing....

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

"There's definitely a path to the nomination for me, if Trump drops out ..."

- Asa Hutchinson (0.1% of the vote)

[Whale Psychiatrist]

I'm hardly an Iowaoligst but I presume there's a lot more vote to come in from Des Moines and surrounding suburbs, which I imagine will be good for Haley? CNN currently showing the count in Clive moving slow as molasses (or whatever they eat in the midwest, jello and cottage cheese maybe).

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Man, how could CNN cutaway from that absolutely captivating scene of a guy tallying up votes for DeSantis and counting? I'm shocked they spent several minutes on just hearing him basically count from 1 to 40.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not to be too 'woke' here and I'm sure you're not the first one to start this, but could we please refer to her as Casey DeSantis? I'm sure nobody here is on a first name basis with her.  Also, I didn't know who 'Casey' was at first.

I mean, Hillary Clinton was commonly called just Hillary, and Trump is sometimes referred to as "The Donald".

They were both hugely well known public figures.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'm hardly an Iowaoligst but I presume there's a lot more vote to come in from Des Moines and surrounding suburbs, which I imagine will be good for Haley? CNN currently showing the count in Clive moving slow as molasses (or whatever they eat in the midwest, jello and cottage cheese maybe).

Have you tried cottage cheese with tabasco?  Life changing.

[NOVA Green]

Trump down to 41% in Polk with the latest dump...

[Alben Barkley]

NYT now projecting DeSantis over Haley.

RIP her momentum going into NH.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm hardly an Iowaoligst but I presume there's a lot more vote to come in from Des Moines and surrounding suburbs, which I imagine will be good for Haley? CNN currently showing the count in Clive moving slow as molasses (or whatever they eat in the midwest, jello and cottage cheese maybe).

Have you tried cottage cheese with tabasco?  Life changing.

Eww.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

How is Casey qualified to be Governor?

You think being qualified matters in a Republican primary in the era of Trump?

Of course candidate qualifications matter to Republican voters! It's just that those qualifications are: "says terrible things about out-groups in a way that makes Republican voters feel good about themselves" and "attacks America's values and institutions in ways that make Republican voters feel good about themselves". (With a side helping of "convinces enough of the wealthy that they'll support private interests over public interests".)

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

[DrScholl]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

How is Casey qualified to be Governor?

I mean Casey has been Ron's defacto Chief of Staff(some even say they are basically Co Governors) and also if she has political ambitions its not hard to see her try to become governor in 2026.

Not to be too 'woke' here and I'm sure you're not the first one to start this, but could we please refer to her as Casey DeSantis? I'm sure nobody here is on a first name basis with her.  Also, I didn't know who 'Casey' was at first.

It doesn't matter.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

[Ferguson97]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

How is Casey qualified to be Governor?

What state are you from and who's the frontrunner to be its next Senator?

Andy Kim is the frontrunner. I know what you are insinuating, and I am not voting for Tammy Murphy.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sums it up nicely:

https://twitter.com/BrendanBuck/status/1747070602089832479

[Alben Barkley]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current numbers are fiction.

Yes, it is obvious at least that Trump would win if the election were held today, and the people you're referring to need to wake up to that reality. We can argue about how bad a sign it is for Biden in November, but it's not GOOD at the least.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

[DrScholl]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Because the general election is tomorrow and not months from now.

[wbrocks67]

If this holds the way it's been going, a bit of a disaster for both DeSantis and Haley. DeSantis gets to say he got 2nd, but no one will care bc they'll be close, and he'll have to stay in through an embarrassing showing in NH. For Haley it's terrible b/c it kills any "momentum" she was supposed to have going into NH.

Honestly more of a disastrous showing for Haley. This was supposed to be her leap pad into NH and getting 3rd would kill most of that. Not just that, but the exits show she is not doing as well as she should even with suburban voters and college educated voters.

[Tekken_Guy]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

How is Casey qualified to be Governor?

What state are you from and who's the frontrunner to be its next Senator?

Andy Kim is the frontrunner. I know what you are insinuating, and I am not voting for Tammy Murphy.

Yeah and for similar reasons Matt Gaetz would obliterate Casey in a primary were she to run.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current numbers are fiction.

Yes, it is obvious at least that Trump would win if the election were held today, and the people you're referring to need to wake up to that reality. We can argue about how bad a sign it is for Biden in November, but it's not GOOD at the least.

That's a strawman argument though.  Most would readily concede Biden would lose if the election were held today.  The argument is just that it is not held today, and Biden has months to turn it around.  He may or may not actually do so.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligent for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.