Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747078440010809647

Yeah that makes sense

Yeah Haley trying to do a bit of a "Rubio" here... still nothing out of Dallas County, which one might expect she could nab a decent bag of votes.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump under 50%

[Lief 🗽]

It's OVER for GOP enthusiasm

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747079618878730535

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

Trump under 50%

Seller was accurate it seems hope he stays under 50

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Seeing a lot of tweets that it was very unethical for networks to call race while people are still actively caucusing

Well, caucuses are an unethical way to hold an election, so I'd say it cancels out.

No they aren't.

Caucuses are a form of voter disenfranchisement. Why should voting be a circus? Just fill in the bubble/press the button, and be done with it.

Caucuses reflect a distinct and different organizational ability and are an entirely legitimate way to organize this sort of thing. Calling them "voter suppression" is laughably hyperbolic. It detracts and devalues the word. Not that you have zero experience in that endeavor...

[walleye26]

The thing though, the metros don’t have enough people to really dent Trump’s North Korea margins in the rurals. Polk+Linn+Scott+Johnson are only like 1/3 of the population.

[Horus]

It's OVER for GOP enthusiasm

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747079618878730535

Isn't the weather awful up there right now?

[DrScholl]

It would be so hilarious if Fatty came in under 50%.

[Ferguson97]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

[Mexican Wolf]

It's OVER for GOP enthusiasm

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747079618878730535

Isn't the weather awful up there right now?

It's indeed bitterly cold in Iowa. I heard/saw there were wind chills down to -40 degrees F there today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's OVER for GOP enthusiasm

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747079618878730535

Isn't the weather awful up there right now?

Yes, it’s below zero. I wouldn’t read much into the turnout numbers.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Holy s--t. My mom came into my room to bring me a plate of chicken nuggets and I literally screamed at her and hit the plate of chicken nuggets out of her hand. She started yelling and swearing at me and I slammed the door on her. I'm so distressed right now I don't know what to do. I didn't mean to do that to my mom but I'm literally in shock from the results tonight. I feel like I'm going to explode. Why the f--king f--k is he losing? This can't be happening. I'm having a f--king breakdown. I don't want to believe the world is so corrupt. I want a future to believe in. I want DeSantis to be president and fix this broken country. I cannot f--king deal with this right now. It wasn't supposed to be like this, I thought he was polling well in Iowa? This is so f--ked.

Is this supposed to be a joke? Did you seriously expect DeSantis to be competitive in Iowa?

...it's a joke

[Compuzled_One]

Hutch got the clutch-he passed Binkley and Christie!

[Harlow]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Holy s--t. My mom came into my room to bring me a plate of chicken nuggets and I literally screamed at her and hit the plate of chicken nuggets out of her hand. She started yelling and swearing at me and I slammed the door on her. I'm so distressed right now I don't know what to do. I didn't mean to do that to my mom but I'm literally in shock from the results tonight. I feel like I'm going to explode. Why the f--king f--k is he losing? This can't be happening. I'm having a f--king breakdown. I don't want to believe the world is so corrupt. I want a future to believe in. I want DeSantis to be president and fix this broken country. I cannot f--king deal with this right now. It wasn't supposed to be like this, I thought he was polling well in Iowa? This is so f--ked.

Is this supposed to be a joke? Did you seriously expect DeSantis to be competitive in Iowa?

It's a meme.

It's an older meme, sir, but it checks out.

I was just about to clear them.

[Eraserhead]

It would be so hilarious if Fatty came in under 50%.

Why? He won in a landslide. What difference does it really make?

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

It's OVER for GOP enthusiasm

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747079618878730535

Isn't the weather awful up there right now?

It's indeed bitterly cold in Iowa. I heard/saw there were wind chills down to -40 degrees F there today.

When Fox cut to Haley speaking in Clive, Iowa, I googled Clive iowa and the weather, Google said, was at -4.
Just ouch...not that people have let the weather stop them from turning out.

[NOVA Green]

The thing though, the metros don’t have enough people to really dent Trump’s North Korea margins in the rurals. Polk+Linn+Scott+Johnson are only like 1/3 of the population.

However the cities are where the snow plows are working on the main drags.

If IA overall TO ends up at only something like 100-120k?

Desantis supposedly had a whole "99 County" org thing to deliver voters to polls.

Haley appears to do well mainly in the cities..

Trump???

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's OVER for GOP enthusiasm

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747079618878730535

Isn't the weather awful up there right now?

It's indeed bitterly cold in Iowa. I heard/saw there were wind chills down to -40 degrees F there today.

When Fox cut to Haley speaking in Clive, Iowa, I googled Clive iowa and the weather, Google said, was at -4.
Just ouch...not that people have let the weather stop them from turning out.

I wonder what turnout for Biden would be like had they voted today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It would be so hilarious if Fatty came in under 50%.

Why? He won in a landslide. What difference does it really make?

Well, Trump was claiming that he’d win by 60. If his winning total is relatively low, he may claim fraud, rigging, etc. Remember this is the guy who had said he won all 50 states previously.

[Alben Barkley]

It's OVER for GOP enthusiasm

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747079618878730535

I'm guessing the weather had something to do with that.

[Alben Barkley]

Haley took the lead, barely, in Polk County.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

It's OVER for GOP enthusiasm

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747079618878730535

Isn't the weather awful up there right now?

It's indeed bitterly cold in Iowa. I heard/saw there were wind chills down to -40 degrees F there today.

When Fox cut to Haley speaking in Clive, Iowa, I googled Clive iowa and the weather, Google said, was at -4.
Just ouch...not that people have let the weather stop them from turning out.

I wonder what turnout for Biden would be like had they voted today.

Probably relatively low. IA being stripped of its status by proxy, combined with the race being non-competitive, would definitely impact turnout.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

[DrScholl]

It would be so hilarious if Fatty came in under 50%.

Why? He won in a landslide. What difference does it really make?

Because he wanted to win by more than that and anything that upsets him is hilarious.