Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Trump is poised to vastly outperform the polls here which is ominous for Biden and the Democrats this fall

The NY Times is projecting Trump at 53%. The RCP polling average puts him at...52.5. Which correctly rounded is basically the same.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Trump is poised to vastly outperform the polls here which is ominous for Biden and the Democrats this fall

He looks to be getting 50-53%, which is actually exactly the RCP average.

[Flats the Flounder]

I know it's early right now, but how does Trump appear to be doing in the more urban areas?

[oldtimer]

Haley now leads in a second county, Story just north of Polk.

1/3rd of the Haley raw vote comes just from Johnson county.

[Kamala-Tim 2024]

Trump is poised to vastly outperform the polls here which is ominous for Biden and the Democrats this fall

No it’s not, man.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Trump is poised to vastly outperform the polls here which is ominous for Biden and the Democrats this fall

Not even a little bit.  Primary polling is not the same as general election polling.

Trump might overperform his polling in November, but this won't be an indication of that.

[Slick Willie]

Are they gonna make a call/projection for second place when they're ready? lol

[Alben Barkley]

Trump is poised to vastly outperform the polls here which is ominous for Biden and the Democrats this fall

Not really. NYT forecast has him doing 4 points better in the margin than the last Selzer poll, with everything else more or less matching her numbers.

Also you can't really extrapolate a primary/caucus to a general election. It's pretty common for the leaders in these races to outperform polls and pick up undecided voters who jump on the bandwagon.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump is poised to vastly outperform the polls here which is ominous for Biden and the Democrats this fall

The NY Times is projecting Trump at 53%. The RCP polling average puts him at...52.5. Which correctly rounded is basically the same.

And 538's average has him at 52.7.  Yeah, looking like a pretty good night for the pollsters.

[Mr. Smith]

Binkley is doing way better than I expected.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

Trump is poised to vastly outperform the polls here which is ominous for Biden and the Democrats this fall

No this is looking pretty well in line with the polls, all things considered.

[emailking]

Hutch has votes now btw. Tied with Christie.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Trump is poised to vastly outperform the polls here which is ominous for Biden and the Democrats this fall

Not even a little bit.  Primary polling is not the same as general election polling.

Trump might overperform his polling in November, but this won't be an indication of that.

Trump isn't even outperforming the polling anyway.

[Dwarven Dragon]

But hasn't effectively everyone already caucused and they're just collating and tallying? This is not like the Dems where they can be debating things for a while.

The length of speeches vary from site to site. A small rural caucus site might only have surrogates for 2 of the candidates, a larger caucus site may have a surrogate for everyone including Hutchinson/Binkley. Also, these are all counted by paper - no machines. The more slips of paper you have to count, the longer it takes. Then it gets reported to the state party who reports it to the networks. It's a process.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Are they gonna make a call/projection for second place when they're ready? lol

Yup.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Trump is poised to vastly outperform the polls here which is ominous for Biden and the Democrats this fall

Not even a little bit.  Primary polling is not the same as general election polling.

Trump might overperform his polling in November, but this won't be an indication of that.

Trump isn't even outperforming the polling anyway.

Right, I saw that after I posted/checking the NYT forecast/RCP average.

Still applies as an even if statement though.

[Another Middling Leftist]

This really came to people being more interested in who will be 2nd.

[Dwarven Dragon]

In the official count so far, Haley is in 2nd, but in the caucus sites CNN is featuring, DeSantis is 2nd. Could easily end either way.

[Mexican Wolf]

CNN has DeSantis in the lead in Sioux County in the northwest.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In the official count so far, Haley is in 2nd, but in the caucus sites CNN is featuring, DeSantis is 2nd. Could easily end either way.

Prediction (not a difficult one): if they do finish close together, each will call for the other to drop out.

[Harlow]

Binkley, a guy I have barely heard of, beating out Asa! would be hilarious.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

In the official count so far, Haley is in 2nd, but in the caucus sites CNN is featuring, DeSantis is 2nd. Could easily end either way.

There are a *lot* of rural counties with no votes reported yet, and I would assume DeSantis will do better than Haley in those. The question is by how much, and can it offset her doing better in places like Des Moines and its suburbs.

[Ferguson97]

Seeing a lot of tweets that it was very unethical for networks to call race while people are still actively caucusing

Well, caucuses are an unethical way to hold an election, so I'd say it cancels out.

No they aren't.

Caucuses are a form of voter disenfranchisement. Why should voting be a circus? Just fill in the bubble/press the button, and be done with it.

[Alben Barkley]

Steve Kornacki is trying his hardest to make this interesting but it just isn't lol. Think I might go back to watching the Eagles lose.

[kwabbit]

It seems like a lot of people think the GOP caucus is like the Democratic one. It’s much closer to a primary. There’s a secret ballot; voters aren’t gathering in groups and then reallocating.