Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[Mexican Wolf]

Haley now leads in a second county, Story just north of Polk.

[Roll Roons]

Haley now leads in a second county, Story just north of Polk.

Another college county.

[Dwarven Dragon]

Donald J. Trump
726 +57.1%57.1%
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
218 +17.2%17.2
No delegates—
Ron DeSantis
217 +17.1%17.1
No delegates—
Vivek Ramaswamy
91 +7.2%7.2
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
11 +0.9%0.9
No delegates—
Chris Christie
4 +0.3%0.3
No delegates—
Asa Hutchinson
4 +0.3%0.3
No delegates—

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's weird that the more urban counties tend to be stronger for Trump like Polk which has Des Moines.

Polk is like Trump's 2nd worst county at the moment...

Yeah DDHQ hasn't updated yet for some reason

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

The fact that the NYT needle is for 2nd place and not the winner kind of says it all, huh?

Yeah.

[Alben Barkley]

Looks like Selzer nailed it again based on NYT forecast.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The fact that the NYT needle is for 2nd place and not the winner kind of says it all, huh?

I mean, it’s the only real thing to follow at this point

Yes, a Trump win has never been in doubt.  The only questions are the margin and the order of the other candidates.

[emailking]

Trump will win Iowa Republican caucuses, CNN projects

Former President Donald Trump will win the Iowa caucuses, CNN projects, solidifying his place as the front-runner for the 2024 Republican nomination as he attempts a historic political comeback nearly three years after leaving the White House in disgrace.

Trump’s victory in this, his first election since losing to Joe Biden in 2020, put to bed any lingering questions about his hold over the GOP and the potency of his right-wing message.

The result also puts added pressure on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley ahead of next week’s contest in New Hampshire, where Haley is hoping to impress among a more ideologically diverse primary electorate. The Iowa outcome is a deeper cut for DeSantis, who along with aligned outside groups spent heavily in the state hoping to overtake Trump and signal a changing of the guard in national Republican politics.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/15/politics/trump-republican-iowa-caucuses/index.html

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

It's extremely disturbing to me how many Americans can fall for a cult of personality. This isn't supposed to happen in the United States. We're supposed to be above this.

Forty-plus years of Republicans spewing lies non-stop while everyone pretends they're acting in good faith would have destroyed any country.

[Mike88]

Turnout at around 130,000. Not bad, considering the weather.

[Matty]

Seeing a lot of tweets that it was very unethical for networks to call race while people are still actively caucusing

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Based on what's in Trump is definitely underperforming in urban areas but what's in isn't a lot.

[Ferguson97]

Seeing a lot of tweets that it was very unethical for networks to call race while people are still actively caucusing

Well, caucuses are an unethical way to hold an election, so I'd say it cancels out.

[emailking]

Seeing a lot of tweets that it was very unethical for networks to call race while people are still actively caucusing

Maybe, but they rule they've adopted since the 2000 debacle is they can call the race when all polls in the state have closed, not necessarily after everyone has finished voting.

[Compuzled_One]

Seeing a lot of tweets that it was very unethical for networks to call race while people are still actively caucusing

I agree.

[Slick Willie]

Seeing a lot of tweets that it was very unethical for networks to call race while people are still actively caucusing

In the age of social media where voters can access those calls almost instantaneously; Yeah, I'd agree that there's an argument for that being unethical.

[PoliticsWatcher1]

Seeing a lot of tweets that it was very unethical for networks to call race while people are still actively caucusing

I mean, it’s clear at this point, Trump about to run away with it.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Seeing a lot of tweets that it was very unethical for networks to call race while people are still actively caucusing

Well, caucuses are an unethical way to hold an election, so I'd say it cancels out.

No they aren't.

[Coconut Decider]

Seeing a lot of tweets that it was very unethical for networks to call race while people are still actively caucusing

Maybe, but they rule they've adopted since the 2000 debacle is they can call the race when all polls in the state have closed, not necessarily after everyone has finished voting.

This kind of only really applies when the vast majority of people have voted, like in a primary.

[LostInOhio]

Trump is poised to vastly outperform the polls here which is ominous for Biden and the Democrats this fall

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

If it's unethical to call the race before all caucuses have concluded, then it's also unethical to post early results before then.

[Alben Barkley]

What a ridiculously stupid, antiquated way of voting.

Also it's funny how the CNN reporters are whispering like it's a golf match as they count.

[Birdish]

Trump is poised to vastly outperform the polls here which is ominous for Biden and the Democrats this fall

I really don't think he is.

[emailking]

But hasn't effectively everyone already caucused and they're just collating and tallying? This is not like the Dems where they can be debating things for a while.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Seeing a lot of tweets that it was very unethical for networks to call race while people are still actively caucusing

Maybe, but they rule they've adopted since the 2000 debacle is they can call the race when all polls in the state have closed, not necessarily after everyone has finished voting.

Yes, the rule is they won't call until polls are closed in all timezones of a state. The Iowa caucus has more of a "poll opening" situation.