Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[Harlow]

RIP Haley, huge underperformance.

Literally less than 1% of the vote has been tallied, and almost none of it from the major cities.

[Matty]

Haley appears to easily get 2nd place per updated entrance poll

Desantis likely to drop out

[LabourJersey]

Chuck Todd at NBC remarked that this caucus may be the oldest (in terms of 45+ and 65+ voters) in Iowa history - did I hear that right?

Would be a surprise given the weather.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Des Moines county does not hold the city of Des Moines. Interesting.

Another random tidbit that's tangentially related to what you said at best:  the Las Vegas Strip is not located within the Las Vegas city limits.  Most of it is technically in Paradise, Nevada.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This reminds me of a story about a football blowout that said "the game was in doubt all the way up to the opening kickoff".

[Pollster]

Huge blow for the media and their desperate attempt to create a race.

[oldtimer]

Trump is slaughtering the other two by way more than I thought possible. Is this the reverse GA Gov primary?

Trump winning Des Moines with 77%.

Very little voting, but it's over.

13 whole votes.

It's over.

And the results from County to County look very uniform right now.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

There's results on the NYTimes now and they've already called it for Trump.

No surprises but a bit surreal that voting for 2024 has already started.

[NyIndy]

Haley appears to easily get 2nd place per updated entrance poll

Desantis likely to drop out

What’re the numbers?

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

It's extremely disturbing to me how many Americans can fall for a cult of personality. This isn't supposed to happen in the United States. We're supposed to be above this.

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump is slaughtering the other two by way more than I thought possible. Is this the reverse GA Gov primary?

Trump winning Des Moines with 77%.

Very little voting, but it's over.

13 whole votes.

It's over.

And the results from County to County look very uniform right now.

I want to see how Trump’s doing in metro counties first.

[Fancyarcher]

Huge blow for the media and their desperate attempt to create a race.

The media overestimated the average intelligence of the Republican primary voter.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Trump is apparently in third in a precinct in Iowa City that's reported yet, and the ones from Polk County aren't necessarily Des Moines, so it's possible he has an urban underperformance that leads to one overall...but we need more numbers.

[Dwarven Dragon]

Trump falling back to earth in Polk county.

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1747070995549008119

[Harlow]

So over/under on Trump winning every county tonight?

Already have a county going for DeSantis and Haley over Trump lol

That's one precinct from Johnson County, where the University of Iowa is.

Case in point, Haley is now leading in Johnson county (with 61 votes to Trump's 41).

[Dwarven Dragon]

Donald J. Trump
632 +62.5%62.5%
No delegates—
Ron DeSantis
158 +15.6%15.6
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
142 +14.0%14.0
No delegates—
Vivek Ramaswamy
68 +6.7%6.7
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
8 +0.8%0.8
No delegates—
Chris Christie
2 +0.2%0.2
No delegates—
Asa Hutchinson
2 +0.2%0.2

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Hayley now ahead in Johnson County with 3% reporting.

[Birdish]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1747070995549008119

Oh god, not the needle. My therapy bill is high enough.  

[Ferguson97]

The fact that the NYT needle is for 2nd place and not the winner kind of says it all, huh?

[PoliticsWatcher1]

Looks like DeSantis is about to fall into third.

[Redban]

 Could be a good night for the pollsters

[Matty]

The fact that the NYT needle is for 2nd place and not the winner kind of says it all, huh?

I mean, it’s the only real thing to follow at this point

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's weird that the more urban counties tend to be stronger for Trump like Polk which has Des Moines.

[Flo 2.0]

It's weird that the more urban counties tend to be stronger for Trump like Polk which has Des Moines.

Polk is like Trump's 2nd worst county at the moment...