Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/07d3f1ec0398ca042e07f44bce7b5f4a4880cc89

It seems Renho is running out of steam in the final stages of the campaign and might fall to 3rd place behind Ishimaru       

The implied polling seems to have it at
                       
                  Nikkei        Nippon TV          NHK
Koike            36              43                   45
Renho           26              19                   20
Ishimaru                         16                   25

with NHK showing a last-minute surge for Ishimaru                       

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/2cd42b35ff4ecbe7ac2381d75ed26ae678cc27c1

East vs West or Osaka vs non-Osaka conflict is emerging again within JRP. 

JRP expanded rapidly in 2012-2013 from Osaka to the rest of Japan.  But that led to conflict between the Osaka vs the non-Osaka faction leading to a split in 2015 where the Osaka faction continued JRP and the non-Osaka faction merged with DPJ (most of them were DPJ and YP defectors anyway) to form DP.

After 2021 the JRP again expanded rapidly outside Osaka, especially in local politics.  Now that seems to be leading to the same East vs West or Osaka vs non-Osaka conflict.   The party seems split on deciding if they should back Ishimaru in the Tokyo gubernatorial election is one of many examples of this.

[jaichind]

In addition to the Tokyo governor election, there will be 10 by-elections in the Tokyo prefecture assembly.

The 10 seats were held by (7 LDP, 3 TPFA, or pro-TPFA.)  The recent ground report seems to indicate trouble for LDP.   I expect the result to be 3 LDP 6 TPFA or pro-TPFA and 1 CDP in a blow for LDP.

[jaichind]

Tokyo governor election voting in progress



Turnout is a bit higher than in 2016 and for sure higher than in 2020 since this election is more competitive than in 2020.  Higher turnout helps Renho but helps Ishimaru more.

My final guess

Koike            41
Renho           25         
Ishimaru       21
Tamogami       7 

[jaichind]

There are rumors that say early exit polls has it very close between Ishimaru and Renho in a battle foe second place. 

[jaichind]

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/

is now live

[jaichind]

Exit polls

Koike wins, Renho third

Koike            ~42    
Ishimaru       ~23
Renho           ~22    



Looks like Tamogami got marginalized and his vote went to Koike    

[jaichind]

Looks like the youth vote leaned Ishimaru getting him ahead of Renho

[jaichind]

LDP-KP strategy recommending Koike but not openly backing Koike worked.  Koike got the LDP-KP vote while not allowing Renho to pin LDP on Koike which led the anti-LDP vote to be split between Renho and Ishimaru 

[jaichind]

Exit poll party support

LDP          25 (some of these voters are really KP voters hiding out as LDP voters)
KP             2
TPFA          2
JRP            3
DPP           2
CDP         10
RS             1
JCP            4
Ind          48   (tend to lean opposition)

[jaichind]

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor exit poll has the pro-LDP incumbent winning against two opposition candidates.  The current incumbent won in 2020 as a LDP rebel beating the LDP backed candidate in a 3 way race.

[jaichind]

NHK polling the last 2 weeks of the election with Koike well ahead and Renho and Ishimaru fighting each other for second place

[jaichind]

Ishimaru edges out Koike among independent voters

[jaichind]

Yomiuri exit poll seems to have Koike more in the high 30s and NHK's 42 while they have Ishimaru more like the low 30s vs NHK's 23

[jaichind]

MX exit poll Ishimaru gets some LDP votes and edges out Koike for JRP and independent voters

[jaichind]

These results show that Koike was beatable if the opposition had someone that could appeal beyond the old CDP-JCP base and reach JRP and youth voters.  Renho clearly was not that opposition candidate.  Her failed stint in 2016-2017 as DP leader clearly have hurt her brand

[jaichind]

TBS exit poll by party ID.  Mostly the same picture as others.  Tamogami won the DIY vote and it seems has some RS support (most be the RS anti-system vote).  But he failed to cut into LDP and JRP vote which dragged him down to below 5% overall.   

[jaichind]

At least compared to exit polls I was not far off.  I got Renho and Ishimaru flipped and underestimated how much Tamogami  will get squeezed by Koike

My final guess

Koike            41
Renho           25         
Ishimaru       21
Tamogami       7 

[jaichind]

Exit poll by age.

Koike and Renho are the old voter candidates while Ishimaru is the youth candidate

[jaichind]

Exit poll party support

LDP          25 (some of these voters are really KP voters hiding out as LDP voters)
KP             2
TPFA          2
JRP            3
DPP           2
CDP         10
RS             1
JCP            4
Ind          48   (tend to lean opposition)

Back in 2020 exit polls, it was

LDP         33
KP            4
JRP           4
DPP          2
CDP          7
RS            1
JCP           4

LDP-KP has clearly lost ground since 2020

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll breakdown by party support

[jaichind]

Given this strong performance, Ishimaru might now run in the next Lower House election (for JRP?) in his home prefecture of Hiroshima. 

[jaichind]

2% of the vote in

The vote so far has a rural lean so Koike will be higher here.

Koike            50.3
Ishimaru       25.2
Renho           22.1         
Tamogami       1.9

[jaichind]

8% of the vote in

Converging toward exit polls

Koike            45.5
Ishimaru       26.2
Renho           24.4         
Tamogami       2.5

[jaichind]

20% of the vote in
 
Koike            45.2
Ishimaru       26.1
Renho           23.9         
Tamogami       2.4

Since the reporting is based on thresholds at this stage there is an underestimate of the minor candidates.