India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is a good video of why 2004 hopes are little far fetched. These are the reasons he gives:

1. There is no reasonable study that has shown that lower turnout hurts the BJP. Some studies have shown that sometimes lower turnout could benefit the BJP as well

2. NDA is far stronger in UP/Bihar than it was in 2004. In 2004 the NDA only won 22 seats in both states while in 2019 that number was 101 and they got over a 50% vote share as well

3. Ram Mandir helps among Northern voters where the BJP has a lot of seats

4. There is no equivalent to Sonia Gandhi in 2004 for the opposition and the lack of one major leader gives the BJP the advantage on the issue of "strong stable leadership"

5. The BJP has far more momentum in the south today than it did back in 2004 and far more seats are winnable for them there then there was back then.

[CumbrianLefty]

Were even the most wildly optimistic anti-BJP types saying it could be "another 2004", though?

[randomusername]

I'm honestly kind of surprised that there's belief that the BJP/NDA will lose a significant portion of seats. Given Modi-Shah's tenacity, what we saw in Surat, public fervor over the Ram temple, my expectation is that at worst they match 2019 or even gain some seats. I might be completely off the mark here but that's my feeling.

I could see them losing some ground in Bihar but making it up in West Bengal.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'm honestly kind of surprised that there's belief that the BJP/NDA will lose a significant portion of seats. Given Modi-Shah's tenacity, what we saw in Surat, public fervor over the Ram temple, my expectation is that at worst they match 2019 or even gain some seats. I might be completely off the mark here but that's my feeling.

I could see them losing some ground in Bihar but making it up in West Bengal.

I do think the BJP will lose some seats overall as keep in mind in 2019 the NDA swept Rajasthan, won 26/28 in Karnataka, won 28/29 in MP, won 39/40 in Bihar so I do think its very possible you could see losses here which cant be made up in West Bengal.

Now the question whether the BJP makes gains or not comes down to whether they can make gains in UP or not as the NDA did lose 9 seats of their 2014 totals there(down from 73 to 64) so if they can get back into the 70s in UP then I think its likely for them to make gains.

At this time though I think we will see the NDA finish somewhere in the low 340s as the total which is higher than 2014 but less than 2019

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is what the opposition is most hoping for:

https://www.ft.com/content/c832e0cf-9fbd-43b5-a8b7-2685634f1454

Then I hit the campaign trail, alongside a group of 20 media colleagues with whom I have covered 32 Indian national and state elections over the past 25 years. This time we tracked the campaign from the east coast to the west, traversing the states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra. And as is often the case, the conventional wisdom did not survive the road reality test. Nowhere on this 2,000km, eight-day route did we hear the sounds of a wave.

We heard no backlash against the prime minister either. Just a return to an India before Modi mania, focused on local issues and leaders — with events in New Delhi an afterthought. The urban middle-class stir with pride at Modi’s base case for a third term — that a roaring economy is raising India’s global stature. But many rural voters do not.

[Logical]

Phase 5 turnout. Don't ask me to interpret this. I'm not jaichind.

[pikachu]

Were even the most wildly optimistic anti-BJP types saying it could be "another 2004", though?

Outside the politicians who kind of have to say it, no. Tbh there hasn’t even been much hype about the BJP losing its majority compared to 2019.

This is what the opposition is most hoping for:

https://www.ft.com/content/c832e0cf-9fbd-43b5-a8b7-2685634f1454

Then I hit the campaign trail, alongside a group of 20 media colleagues with whom I have covered 32 Indian national and state elections over the past 25 years. This time we tracked the campaign from the east coast to the west, traversing the states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra. And as is often the case, the conventional wisdom did not survive the road reality test. Nowhere on this 2,000km, eight-day route did we hear the sounds of a wave.

We heard no backlash against the prime minister either. Just a return to an India before Modi mania, focused on local issues and leaders — with events in New Delhi an afterthought. The urban middle-class stir with pride at Modi’s base case for a third term — that a roaring economy is raising India’s global stature. But many rural voters do not.

Yeah, this is a sidebar, but the vibes and general optimism among the urban Indian middle class is stunning. From friends and family I’ve talked to who’ve visited in the last year and generally have a very low opinion of the BJP, it sounds like people there believe in the future in a way that I haven’t sensed in the English-speaking world since I became politically conscious. I’m a skeptic of how much the vibes match reality – I’m much more bearish on India’s future than most – but it’s an interesting contrast.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I narrowly missed my chance to vote in this election and the Singapore election(in the awkward period of being stateless which should end by next month). It's just kind of awful how normalised far-right attitudes are among even more cosmopolitan Indians. I have a close friend who despite knowing that my own other is muslim and father is Jain just started ranting about love Jihad.There's a way people are able to compartmentalise their far-right view points that just really discomforting.

It's just well elections are won and lost in the part of India I have no real contact with so I can't really make any psephological or societal claims based on this. Regarding the actual election, I only hope that the BJP's thuggish antics will backfire; there are a lot of week points regarding their economic and developmental performance that a well-structured opposition could take advantage of but Rahul Ghadi just isn't it and there are no real alternatives.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I narrowly missed my chance to vote in this election and the Singapore election(in the awkward period of being stateless which should end by next month). It's just kind of awful how normalised far-right attitudes are among even more cosmopolitan Indians. I have a close friend who despite knowing that my own other is muslim and father is Jain just started ranting about love Jihad.There's a way people are able to compartmentalise their far-right view points that just really discomforting.

It's just well elections are won and lost in the part of India I have no real contact with so I can't really make any psephological or societal claims based on this. Regarding the actual election, I only hope that the BJP's thuggish antics will backfire; there are a lot of week points regarding their economic and developmental performance that a well-structured opposition could take advantage of but Rahul Ghadi just isn't it and there are no real alternatives.

The problem is the opposition just thought pre 2014 Indian politics would just come back and they would sweep to victory based on that. In reality post 2019 they should have planned to :

- Reduce the NDA to somewhere in the 265-300 seat range. The NDA would still govern with these numbers but it would resemble 1998-2004 far more than 2014-present

- Building up a bench . Over the past 10 years the INC bench has been decimated and that makes coming back harder. Really they should have focused on keeping their gains from 2018 in the Hindi Belt and doing better in places like UP .

If they did that I think they could have actually reduced the NDA to somewhere between 265-280 seats and then come to power by 2027/28.

[pikachu]

- The opposition has been doubting the turnout figures. (Not entirely connected to the election, but there been a lot controversy about India's statistical output over the past few years.)

- An analysis of the candidates who ran in Phase 3. Many of them are criminals.

- Nitesh Kumar's existential crisis. (For those who don't remember, he made a late flip from INDIA to the NDA.

- The Election Commission is telling Modi and Rahul to stop being mean to each other.

- Preview of Phase Six, which is due to happen on May 24. A lot of areas of Congress weakness.

[Logical]

Phase 6 turnout. Down in every state. Somewhat worrying for NDA as the seats that voted in this phase heavily favor them.


Turnout change so far. Down in many core Hindi belt areas, the far South and WB. Up in Karnataka, Telangana, and tribal heavy areas like Chhattisgarh. Beyond that I can't say much.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Phase 6 turnout. Down in every state. Somewhat worrying for NDA as the seats that voted in this phase heavily favor them.


Turnout change so far. Down in many core Hindi belt areas, the far South and WB. Up in Karnataka, Telangana, and tribal heavy areas like Chhattisgarh. Beyond that I can't say much.

Yeah I think the NDA is gonna probably end up between 330-350 seats overall which would be a net loss for them since 2019. It also would mean the INC picks up enough seats to get official opposition status(they would need to end up with at least 55 seats for this)

[eos]

https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/general-elections-2024-traders-turn-to-illegal-betting-for-cues-election-betting-lok-sabha-polls-modi-bjp-nda/amp-11716356985677.html

Illegal betting markets based on ground reports have revised BJP projected seats from 334-338 to 294-298. NDA could presumably end up around 330-350 depending on how the regional allies perform.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/general-elections-2024-traders-turn-to-illegal-betting-for-cues-election-betting-lok-sabha-polls-modi-bjp-nda/amp-11716356985677.html

Illegal betting markets based on ground reports have revised BJP projected seats from 334-338 to 294-298. NDA could presumably end up around 330-350 depending on how the regional allies perform.

What is your prediction . Mine is NDA around 340 and BJP around 295

[eos]

https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/general-elections-2024-traders-turn-to-illegal-betting-for-cues-election-betting-lok-sabha-polls-modi-bjp-nda/amp-11716356985677.html

Illegal betting markets based on ground reports have revised BJP projected seats from 334-338 to 294-298. NDA could presumably end up around 330-350 depending on how the regional allies perform.

What is your prediction . Mine is NDA around 340 and BJP around 295

I would say around 300 for BJP and 350 for NDA. I could see BJP/NDA getting less due to underperforming in Karnataka, Andhra and Maharashtra. However, I have learned not to underestimate BJP in Modi era so they could just as well end up doing 320-370. Exit polls coming out tomorrow so not long to wait for more details!

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/general-elections-2024-traders-turn-to-illegal-betting-for-cues-election-betting-lok-sabha-polls-modi-bjp-nda/amp-11716356985677.html

Illegal betting markets based on ground reports have revised BJP projected seats from 334-338 to 294-298. NDA could presumably end up around 330-350 depending on how the regional allies perform.

What is your prediction . Mine is NDA around 340 and BJP around 295

I would say around 300 for BJP and 350 for NDA. I could see BJP/NDA getting less due to underperforming in Karnataka, Andhra and Maharashtra. However, I have learned not to underestimate BJP in Modi era so they could just as well end up doing 320-370. Exit polls coming out tomorrow so not long to wait for more details!

Here were the exits in 2019 if anyone wants to know



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Indian_general_election

[Sestak]

Very possible that the Indian people’s adoration for President Trump leads to an increased solidarity vote for his new kindred brother Arvind Kejriwal tomorrow in Punjab.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Very possible that the Indian people’s adoration for President Trump leads to an increased solidarity vote for his new kindred brother Arvind Kejriwal tomorrow in Punjab.

Lol that’s actually pretty funny .

Anyway I will say that it will be interesting to see that the same international media who yelled Kejri’s arrest was bad for democracy cheer this verdict showing that they do indeed have double standards. Of course the opposite is true as well as Indian Right wingers who do support the GOP likely are yelling that this verdict is unfair but support Kejri’s arrest .

Btw I support neither

[OSR stands with Israel]

This doenst show much confidence by the INC

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/exclusive-congress-chief-mallikarjun-kharge-prediction-for-party-in-2024-lok-sabha-polls-5786969/amp/1

Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge today said that the party was confident that along with other INDIA bloc partners, will stop the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from winning a third consecutive term. In an exclusive interview with NDTV, Mr Kharge said that the Congress is hoping to win 128 seats in the Lok Sabha elections.

"From the reports we have received, we are sure that we will stop BJP from coming back to power. We believe that Congress has already crossed the 100-seat mark and are hoping to win 128 seats," Mr Kharge told NDTV.

This would mean the vast majority of seats in a coalition government would be from state parties which uh isn’t really good for governance