India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[jaichind]

Assuming the turnout will be a few % points higher than prelim numbers we area headed for a few-point turnout drop in the Hindi heartland and Maharastra and a few-point turnout increase in in TN.

The split of the AIADMK-BJP alliance seems to have created kinetic energy with both fronts bringing in new supporters to their cause.  DMK+ will lose vote share but as long as the AIADMK+ and BJP+ front split the anti-DMK vote "correctly" the DMK+ should still mostly repeat their 2019 performance. 

[jaichind]

It seems overall TN turnout also fell.  The places where turnout went up (or fell very little) are where BJP+ are fairly strong so one can say that BJP's third front is pulling in new voters.  Most likely not enough the counter the anti-DMK split effect to help dent DMK+ seat count

I think what took place was ECI estimates for TN turnout were inflated election day (this is different from the standard situation where ECI usually underestimates turnout and then had to adjust it upward versus downwards)

[jaichind]

At this time it seems phase 1 turnout fell across the board and is now a reality.  The issue is more about "why" and the possible impact

Politicalbabba speculates:
1. heat / high temperature
2. overconfidence amongst BJP voters / cadre : election done deal, Aaayega to Modi hi
3. less less enthusiasm amongst opposition voters : election done deal, Aaayega to Modi hi
4. some caste groups unhappy like in Raj, UP (Jat / Rajput)
5. trust on ECI (a point highlighted by CSDS survey)
https://twitter.com/politicalbaaba/status/1781562182112514528

Turnout also depends upon constituency dynamics, candidates etc. One also needs to see seat wise Turnout or Voting Percentage.

In 2019 vs 2014, on 79 seats of #Phase1 turnout witnessed an increase. On 43 seats the winner party of 2014 lost elections, on balance 36, the winner party was able to retain the seat.

In 2019 vs 2014, on 23 seats of #Phase1 turnout witnessed a decline. On 18 seats the winner party of 2014 lost elections, on balance 5, the winner party was able to retain the seat.


https://twitter.com/politicalbaaba/status/1781584425978896429

[jaichind]

Also fundamentally quality of life is much much higher than it was in 2004. In 2004 much of India didn’t have basic plumbing(even in urban areas!), places were far less electrified , and in general things were far less developed.

I saw this first hand as when I visited India in 2005 it felt like going decades back in time , while when I visited India in 2022 it felt like a modern place . Technology has also made a huge difference as in 2022 it seemed like every street vendor used UPI which is huge . Now the street vendor no longer has to take time of the day to deposit money into their bank accounts , can watch tv/make phone calls on one device which is much cheaper for them .

While they might not be getting the income to be considered middle class , technological advancements have made living like the middle class easier than before .

The issue for the BJP is that the lower-income half of the Indian population experienced income loss in the last 4 years.


There were clear underemployment issues back in 2019 as well but it was overcome by the perception that
a) Modi is the solution and not the problem (targeted BJP welfare programs which they give credit to Modi for helps)
b) INC is not the solution
c) My current economic situation has to do with me and does not reflect the overall national situation
d) I am voting for something bigger (national greatness under Modi)

This time around I think the power of a) is getting weaker (Modi has been in power for 10 years now).  b) is still true.  c) is mostly true but only because the MSM is mostly pushing a pro-BJP message. d) is most likely true (Ram Mandir, India becoming superpower after "1000 years of darkness" (as per Modi)) but in suspect

So the question mostly becomes how much has a) c) and d) degraded since 2019.  I would say a bit, or enough for NDA not to get to 380-400 seats but nowhere close to enough for NDA to come anyway close to losing power.

[jaichind]

It seems the turnout fell and they fell in pro-BJP and pro-opposition areas.   I suspect this means it is a combination of complacent BJP voters and demoralized anti-BJP voters.   Still, the areas of the greatest turnout drop are in the 2019 Modi wave areas so the first factor most likely is a bit bigger than the second which produces a net small bad news for the BJP.  Many more phases to go.

[jaichind]

BJP candidate and former MP for the UP seat Moradabad passed away a day after voting took place for the seat.  This seat is 50/50 between Hindus and Muslims and in theory, the SP should win after winning in 2019.  SP dropped the sitting MP which could lead to a split in the SP and defeat by the former BJP MP.  If the BJP wins then there will be a by-election.

[jaichind]

Former TDP CN Naidu's net worth is $100 million (mostly in his wife's name) as per documents filed with ECI.  I guess he shares the same investment adviser as Nancy Pelosi.  

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtvprofit.com/amp/elections/lok-sabha-elections-2024-congress-surat-candidate-in-trouble-as-proposers-deny-signing-nomination

"Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Congress' Surat Candidate In Trouble As Proposers Deny Signing Nomination"

In Gujarat, it seems the INC candidate for Surat might have his nomination rejected because some of the people who said they signed his nomination document saying they proposed him as a candidate did not sign those papers.  Pro-INC sources claim foul play by the BJP but the BJP will win by a large majority no matter what.  Either way, it seems the INC does have a backup candidate and most likely will have to run him instead.

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/jammu-and-kashmir-bjp-defends-its-decision-not-to-field-candidates-from-3-ls-seats-in-kashmir/articleshow/109462426.cms?from=mdr

"Jammu and Kashmir BJP defends its decision not to field candidates from 3 LS seats in Kashmir"

It seems the BJP will not nominate any candidates in the 3 Muslim majority Kashmir seats in J&K.  I suspect they will end up supporting JKPC and JKAP in those seats.  JKPC had been in NDA before and it is well known that JKAP was set up with BJP funding.  I guess BJP's goal is to try to support non-JKNC   non-JKPDP parties hoping that JKNC and JKPDP split the vote to allow the parties BJP supports to win while there is zero chance BJP can get a vote share greater than 5% here anyway.
 

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/ndas-400-paar-dream-faces-reality-check-bernstein-report-suggests/articleshow/109459898.cms?from=mdr

"NDA's '400 paar' dream faces reality check, Bernstein report suggests"

Bernstein Societe General Group report says that NDA is much more likely end up with around 350 seats than the 400 seats many pre-election surveys are suggesting.  The report says that the market is already pricing in a mega NDA landslide of 400 seats and if it ends up being 350 seats there will be a market correction.

[jaichind]

AP's Tirupati seat will see the battle of 3 MP.  The sitting YSRCP MP Maddila Gurumoorthy who won a 2021 by-election after the death of the YSRCP MP elected in 2019 (due to COVID-19) will face off against BJP's Varaprasad Rao Velagapalli who was the YSRCP MP in 2014-2019 and INC's Chinta Mohan who was the INC MP here in 2004-2014.

[jaichind]

Phase 1 turnout changed from the same seats in 2019.  Turnout is down in a lot of the 2019 Modi wave states.  Turnout up in Assam which is fairly positive for BJP on likely Hindu-Muslim polarization.  Chhattisgarh turnout is also up which also most likely means BJP will make some gains there.

[xelas81]

Phase 1 turnout changed from the same seats in 2019.  Turnout is down in a lot of the 2019 Modi wave states.  Turnout up in Assam which is fairly positive for BJP on likely Hindu-Muslim polarization.  Chhattisgarh turnout is also up which also most likely means BJP will make some gains there.

Does the turnout numbers take population changes into account?

[jaichind]

Phase 1 turnout changed from the same seats in 2019.  Turnout is down in a lot of the 2019 Modi wave states.  Turnout up in Assam which is fairly positive for BJP on likely Hindu-Muslim polarization.  Chhattisgarh turnout is also up which also most likely means BJP will make some gains there.

Does the turnout numbers take population changes into account?

Well. It is % of registered voters that voted.  The underlying number clearly increased.  Given the fall in overall turnout it would not surprise me if the absolute number of votes were flat or even fell a bit. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Phase 1 turnout changed from the same seats in 2019.  Turnout is down in a lot of the 2019 Modi wave states.  Turnout up in Assam which is fairly positive for BJP on likely Hindu-Muslim polarization.  Chhattisgarh turnout is also up which also most likely means BJP will make some gains there.

Does the turnout numbers take population changes into account?

Well. It is % of registered voters that voted.  The underlying number clearly increased.  Given the fall in overall turnout it would not surprise me if the absolute number of votes were flat or even fell a bit. 

Is there precinct data in India so we can figure out where the turnout drops are mostly happening

[jaichind]

Is there precinct data in India so we can figure out where the turnout drops are mostly happening

There is level data but they are usually provided after the results come out and even then they are not often provided on a consistent basis.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ranchi/their-chairs-empty-on-stage-jailed-kejriwal-hemants-voices-echo-at-india-rally/articleshow/109488455.cms

"Their chairs empty on stage, jailed Kejriwal & Hemant's voices echo at INDIA rally"

INDIA rally in Ranchi had two empty chairs for the Delhi AAP CM Kejriwal and Jharkhand JMM CM Soren both of whom are behind bars under investigation for corruption to highlight their claim that the BJP locks up their political opponents.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtvprofit.com/amp/elections/lok-sabha-elections-2024-congress-surat-candidate-in-trouble-as-proposers-deny-signing-nomination

"Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Congress' Surat Candidate In Trouble As Proposers Deny Signing Nomination"

In Gujarat, it seems the INC candidate for Surat might have his nomination rejected because some of the people who said they signed his nomination document saying they proposed him as a candidate did not sign those papers.  Pro-INC sources claim foul play by the BJP but the BJP will win by a large majority no matter what.  Either way, it seems the INC does have a backup candidate and most likely will have to run him instead.

https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections-2024-bjp-candidate-mukesh-dalal-wins-surat-lok-sabha-seat-unopposed-11713778975544.html

"Lok Sabha elections 2024: BJP candidate Mukesh Dalal wins Surat Lok Sabha seat unopposed"

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has received a solid boost before the second phase of Lok Sabha elections 2024 as their candidate from Surat, Mukesh Dalal was declared elected unopposed after Congress candidate Nilesh Kumbhani’s nomination was rejected and all other candidates in the fray withdrew their bid to the seat, party's Gujarat chief C R Paatil informed on Monday.

The fact that all other candidates also withdrew from the race does imply the INC claim that the BJP candidate bribed his way to victory.  Of course, he is wasting his money as he was going to win anyway.  Perhaps all the other candidates, including the INC candidate, took a powder for a cash payment from the BJP candidate knowing they will lose and avoid spending money on a lost race and get some small amount of cash out of it.

[jaichind]

https://theprint.in/elections/why-samajwadi-party-is-swinging-focus-from-muslims-yadavs-to-dalit-obc-vote-in-up/2051224/

"Why Samajwadi Party is swinging focus from Muslims & Yadavs to Dalit & OBC vote in UP"

SP is gambling that with the SP-INC alliance means that is it unlikely the Muslim vote will be split in UP and that the SP core Yadav vote will vote SP no matter what.  SP instead is targeting OBC and Dalit votes in a desperate attempt to counter the much larger BJP social base Upper Caste, non-Yadav OBC, and non-Jatav Dalits.  This could backfire as BSP is fielding a lot of Muslim candidates to try to capture the SP Muslim votes but SP might have no choice to avoid a wipeout.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/photos/news/heatwave-grips-india-maximum-temperatures-rise-above-normal-levels-101713760504212.html

"Heatwave grips India, maximum temperatures rise above normal levels"

Part of the reason why turnout fell is likely due to a heatwave in India right now.  If so it seems turnout might fall in other phases as the heatwave does not look like its going to go away.

[jaichind]

https://www.business-standard.com/elections/lok-sabha-election/guarantee-cards-congress-path-to-lok-sabha-elections-redemption-124042100572_1.html

"Guarantee cards: Congress' path to 2024 Lok Sabha poll redemption"

. The Congress, assisted by election strategist Sunil Kanugolu’s Inclusive Minds, has engaged coordinators for each of the 75 seats it believes it could win in addition to the 52 it won in 2019. Sasikanth Senthil, a former Karnataka cadre Indian Administrative Services officer who quit in 2019, is in charge of the Congress war room.

It seems INC's strategy concedes that it is viable in only around 120-130 seats or so and that is where they will focus their effort.

[jaichind]

https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/congress-will-distribute-wealth-to-infiltrators-those-who-have-more-children-pm-modi-in-rajasthan/3464250/

"‘Congress will distribute wealth to infiltrators, those who have more children’: PM Modi in Rajasthan"

Prime Minister Narendra Modi suggested on Sunday that if the Congress were to come to power, it would redistribute the wealth of the people to Muslims. He cited former PM Manmohan Singh’s statement that the minority community had the primary claim on the country’s resources.

Speaking at a rally in Rajasthan’s Banswara, Modi accused the Congress of intending to allocate the hard-earned money and assets of the people to “infiltrators” and “those who have more children”.

Modi claims that the INC manifesto of redistributing income  means resources will be shifted toward  “infiltrators” (read: Muslims from Bangladesh)

INC Prez Mallikarjun Kharge says he wants to meet Modi to review the INC manifesto to show Modi that his claim is not true.

[jaichind]

After phase 1 betting odds moved toward my predictions with BJP numbers falling and INC numbers rising.

BJP: 303 - 307  -> I have it at 306
INC: 51 - 53 -> I have it at 65

BJP in different states
Rajasthan: 18 -> I have it at 19
Haryana: 7 -> I have it at 8
UP: 66 - 68 -> I have it at 67
WB: 20 - 22 -> I have it at 19
Telangana: 5 - 7 [INC: 7 - 9] -> I have it at 6 and I have INC at 9
Karnataka: 19 - 22 -> I have it at 18
Odisha: 11 - 12 -> I have it at 11

YSRCP: 10 - 12 -> I have it at 12

My INC numbers being off relative to betting markets even while my BJP numbers match exactly the betting markets  seems to indicate that the betting markets expect a better performance out of LDF in Kerala and AAP in Punjab than my expectations

[jaichind]

At least two royals are contesting this election.

In the Karnataka seat of Mysore, Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar, the scion of the Wadiyar dynasty of Mysore will contest on a BJP ticket.   Meanwhile in the Maharastra seat of Kolhapur, Shahu II of Kolhapur, the descendent of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj of the Maratha Empire, will contest on INC ticket.  He is related to the NCP Pawar family by marriage.

[jaichind]

At least two royals are contesting this election.

In the Karnataka seat of Mysore, Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar, the scion of the Wadiyar dynasty of Mysore will contest on a BJP ticket.   Meanwhile in the Maharastra seat of Kolhapur, Shahu II of Kolhapur, the descendent of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj of the Maratha Empire, will contest on INC ticket.  He is related to the NCP Pawar family by marriage.

It seems Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar's father already has been a MP in Mysore several times in the past.  He won here in 1984 as INC, won in 1989 as INC, lost here in 1991 as BJP, won in 1996 as INC, won here in 1999 as INC, and lost here in 2004 as INC.

His father's defeat in Mysore in 2004 was a very close 3 way race

BJP         33.1
JD(S)      32.0
INC         31.3  (Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar's father and incumbent INC MP)