Canadian provincial elections 2024

(1/1)

mileslunn:
Unless one goes early, we have three provincial elections.  Below are my thoughts.

British Columbia: Barring some major scandal, looks like NDP should easily sail to victory.  Real question is who will form opposition, BC United or BC Conservatives and that will be key as whomever does has good shot in 2028 and likewise if parties do merge (and I think they might) whomever wins more seats will have upper hand.  Also possible that party that comes in second in votes will be different than one in seats too.

New Brunswick: Of three provincial elections, this is probably the most competitive.  At this point it is truly a toss up.  NB Liberals have slight advantage in popular vote, but because PC vote more efficient they can lose popular vote and still win election.  Big problem they have is it is majority or bust as Greens have made clear they will back NB Liberals in minority.  Also PANB is largely gone so no more right wing votes to gain where by contrast some Green and NDP voters may swing over to Liberals to oust Higgs.  Higgs unlike Houston or King is more right wing so has little crossover appeal with centre-left whereas in Nova Scotia & PEI many NDP and Greens have PCs not Liberals as second choice, but in New Brunswick almost all have Liberals as second choice.

Saskatchewan:  Barring a split on the right, Moe should win another majority so more interesting whether NDP has a strong opposition or another weak one.  With Moe moving rightward to prevent split on right, I could see NDP dominating Regina and Saskatoon and getting over 20 seats, but also they have many times before polled well in between elections but flopped on e-day.  Still trend in two cities favours NDP so should pick up at least a few but whether modest or big gains is hard to say. 

S019:
British Columbia: Center right vote split will doom the opposition, but I do think the NDP vote will hover in the 43-44 range (vote percentage wise) in the end, which will probably lead to center-right consolidation once again.
Saskatchewan: SKP will win, but by less than they have in the past, NDP likely will break 20 seats and I could see them getting close to 25
New Brunswick: Liberal vote distribution seems horrendous, so it looks like the PCs could be first in seat count even on the current numbers. Seems like a tossup on whether or not they get a majority, though I agree a Liberal+Green coalition would happen if they fell short.

Benjamin Frank 2.0:
Regarding B.C, who knows by 2028?

More broadly though, and it's different in every riding, the Conservatives (and the B.C Reform Party in 1996) have historically taken support from the NDP and not just the other 'right of center' or 'free enterprise parties.'

Especially outside of Greater Vancouver and Southern Vancouver Island, the NDP receives a fair deal of support from populists who also are attracted to the Conservative Party.

There are exceptions though. For instance, in Vernon, the NDP has received between 30-35% or so of the vote in every election except for obviously 2001, no matter who else runs. So, when the vote splits enough, the NDP is competitive including finally winning the riding in 2020. The NDP was also very close in Vernon in 1991 and it was one of the few ridings they did not win in 1991 where they came very close in 1996. (I believe, Peace River South, of all ridings, was one of the few others.)

After the 1996 election with the B.C Reform Party falling apart, NDP Premier Glen Clark tried to get B.C Reform Party Peace River North MLA Richard Neufeld to cross the floor to the NDP arguing that the B.C NDP and the B.C Reform Party had a lot in common as they were both populist parties. Although Neufeld dismissed the idea, I believe he did acknowledge that they had some populist views in common.

mileslunn:
On Saskatchewan, looks like might be closer than thought.  While Saskatchewan Party still favorites, NDP winning is at least plausible probably their best showing since 2003 which is when they won last.  Biggest barrier to NDP winning is Saskatchewan Party lock on rural areas.  But something like 33 SKP to 28 NDP I think its quite realistic.

Navigation

[0] Message Index