United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Even with Montgomeryshire's own LD history?  Or did Lembit Opik stink up the joint *that* much?

He genuinely did do a massive number on the party brand there, which is why the old Montgomery looked like an actually safe Conservative seat afterwards. This new strange abomination of a constituency crosses the Berwyns to pick up about a third of its new electorate from the abolished Clwyd South. The area in question is very working class and usually very Labour.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Talking of Lib Dems in rural wales, are they actually trying in the expanded Ceredigion, or is Mark Williams on a solo mission to reclaim his seat? Funnily enough he survived the Cleggcoylpse in 2015, but lost in 17 and was devastated in 19 (a collapse which carried on to the Senedd*). I imagine the coalition he envisions is cannibalising the Tory vote? Not that the incumbent Plaid MP seems controversial enough to inspire such tactical votes, unless there is a language issue.

* The Lib Dem candidate barely got double the votes of the Green candidate, one "Harry Hayfield"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On the other subject discussed in this thread recently, it is worth considering an issue that has been subject to remarkably little interest or analysis in the media elsewhere: who exactly are all these people who have been switching their votes to Labour? We know that it is not a continuation of the pro-European vote that was such a feature of the last election, while we have fairly strong indicators from local elections that Labour does not presently have the mysterious extra appeal to Middle England that the Party did under (Sir) Mr Tony. We know that it is not a continuation of the special 'positive' factors under Corbyn: there are very sound reasons to believe that the Party will poll rather worse with BoBo electors, and that not only will the unusual consolidation of Muslim voters not be repeated but that there will be a substantial drop in support there. Casting the net a little wider, the general feeling is that amongst minority voters in general it will be a bit of a wash: great improvements from some, treading water with others, continued or new troubles with others still. So, who does this leave, exactly? Because it certainly isn't the actual hard core of the Conservative Party's electorate that has been moving over: it may truly be crumbling, but if it crumbles at the polling station for real, those votes will not move directly to Labour. So, again, who does this leave, exactly?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Talking of Lib Dems in rural wales, are they actually trying in the expanded Ceredigion, or is Mark Williams on a solo mission to reclaim his seat? Funnily enough he survived the Cleggcoylpse in 2015, but lost in 17 and was devastated in 19 (a collapse which carried on to the Senedd*). I imagine the coalition he envisions is cannibalising the Tory vote? Not that the incumbent Plaid MP seems controversial enough to inspire such tactical votes, unless there is a language issue.

* The Lib Dem candidate barely got double the votes of the Green candidate, one "Harry Hayfield"

I have no idea, but the thing about Ceredigion (whether it is on its own or paired with, as it was from 1983 until 1997 and is so again, North Pembrokeshire) is that it often does its own thing, with remarkably little reference to developments elsewhere.

[LabourJersey]

On the other subject discussed in this thread recently, it is worth considering an issue that has been subject to remarkably little interest or analysis in the media elsewhere: who exactly are all these people who have been switching their votes to Labour? We know that it is not a continuation of the pro-European vote that was such a feature of the last election, while we have fairly strong indicators from local elections that Labour does not presently have the mysterious extra appeal to Middle England that the Party did under (Sir) Mr Tony. We know that it is not a continuation of the special 'positive' factors under Corbyn: there are very sound reasons to believe that the Party will poll rather worse with BoBo electors, and that not only will the unusual consolidation of Muslim voters not be repeated but that there will be a substantial drop in support there. Casting the net a little wider, the general feeling is that amongst minority voters in general it will be a bit of a wash: great improvements from some, treading water with others, continued or new troubles with others still. So, who does this leave, exactly? Because it certainly isn't the actual hard core of the Conservative Party's electorate that has been moving over: it may truly be crumbling, but if it crumbles at the polling station for real, those votes will not move directly to Labour. So, again, who does this leave, exactly?

My understanding is that the number of people actually switching may not be that many?

Labour in 2017 got 40% of the vote. This year they'll probably get 43-44%, so 3-4% of the electorate moving in their direction.

Admittedly that's still a decent amount of voters, but I think the biggest element of this election is the Tories completely cratering rather than Labour sweeping up the electorate.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Question is, will Keir Starmer win the most amount of raw votes for the party ever in an election? You'll never guess what election the record is for (it's not 1945, 1966 or either Blairslide).

 

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

It's 13,948,385, the vote won by Clement Attlee in 1951. Yes, the election that Labour lost is the second highest total votes for a party ever, only beaten by that charismatic titan John Major.

[Blair]

On the other subject discussed in this thread recently, it is worth considering an issue that has been subject to remarkably little interest or analysis in the media elsewhere: who exactly are all these people who have been switching their votes to Labour? We know that it is not a continuation of the pro-European vote that was such a feature of the last election, while we have fairly strong indicators from local elections that Labour does not presently have the mysterious extra appeal to Middle England that the Party did under (Sir) Mr Tony. We know that it is not a continuation of the special 'positive' factors under Corbyn: there are very sound reasons to believe that the Party will poll rather worse with BoBo electors, and that not only will the unusual consolidation of Muslim voters not be repeated but that there will be a substantial drop in support there. Casting the net a little wider, the general feeling is that amongst minority voters in general it will be a bit of a wash: great improvements from some, treading water with others, continued or new troubles with others still. So, who does this leave, exactly? Because it certainly isn't the actual hard core of the Conservative Party's electorate that has been moving over: it may truly be crumbling, but if it crumbles at the polling station for real, those votes will not move directly to Labour. So, again, who does this leave, exactly?

It is a complete hunch but I would love to see the vote totals among the new build estates in part of Bedfordshire where you can now easily commute into London- especially if you work only 2-3 days in the city.

These people weren't exactly tribal tories (likely to be couples in their 30s/40s with children) but I'm partly convinced Labour is going to clean up with them; the generation is slightly older than me but I know a few couples who would have been voting Conservative in 2010/2015 if they were at this stage of their life but would now recoil at the idea.

[Blair]

Ironically Bill Cash is old enough to have actually campaigned the election this slogan was last used

https://twitter.com/SirBillCash/status/1802266075536486830

[TheTide]

Question is, will Keir Starmer win the most amount of raw votes for the party ever in an election? You'll never guess what election the record is for (it's not 1945, 1966 or either Blairslide).

 

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

It's 13,948,385, the vote won by Clement Attlee in 1951. Yes, the election that Labour lost is the second highest total votes for a party ever, only beaten by that charismatic titan John Major.

It greatly depends upon turnout, of course. This isn't something that I've seen much polling on. The 10/10 (on a 'certainty to vote' scale) figure on the latest YouGov poll in which internals are available is 60%. Usually it's a fair bit lower than the 10/10 figure.

[CumbrianLefty]

Applications to register to vote seem to be picking up after a slow start - which may or may not tell us something. Whilst historically turnout estimates in polls have tended to overstate how many show up on the day, I wonder if that is as true in such an "anti-political" climate as now.

[MaxQue]

On the subject of Great Grimsby & vote share it's worth remembering Labour actually won a fair few council seats in the area (I'm 99% sure- it's part of North East Lincolnshire council but my map reading suggests grimsby had gains)

I can't see them doing worse than 2019 on vote share- we had a BXP candidate in 2019 and they got 7% of the vote.

Wards in Great Grimsby and Cleesthorpe, 2021 locals: 8 Con, 1 LD
Wards in Great Grimsby and Cleesthorpe, 2024 locals: 5 Lab, 2 Ind, 1 LD, 1 Con

[TheTide]

Applications to register to vote seem to be picking up after a slow start - which may or may not tell us something. Whilst historically turnout estimates in polls have tended to overstate how many show up on the day, I wonder if that is as true in such an "anti-political" climate as now.

Here are the 10/10 figures in Ipsos-Mori's final poll of each campaign going back to 1979.

1979 - 74% (76% actual)
1983 - 78% (73% actual)
1987 - 85% (75% actual)
1992 - 82% (78% actual)
1997 - 71% (71% actual)
2001 - 63% (59% actual)
2005 - 70% (61% actual)
2010 - 76% (65% actual)
2015 - 82% (66% actual)
2017 - 80% (69% actual)
2019 - 80% (67% actual)

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/likelihood-voting

Obviously the campaign still has some way to go and I suspect the 10/10 figure will rise at least somewhat.

I remember being, if anything, more shocked by the lack of a rise in turnout in 2015 than the outcome itself. It just felt like the competitiveness of it would drive people to the polls. The gap between the 10/10 figure and the actual turnout has become wider - I wonder why that might be.

[YL]

On the other subject discussed in this thread recently, it is worth considering an issue that has been subject to remarkably little interest or analysis in the media elsewhere: who exactly are all these people who have been switching their votes to Labour? We know that it is not a continuation of the pro-European vote that was such a feature of the last election, while we have fairly strong indicators from local elections that Labour does not presently have the mysterious extra appeal to Middle England that the Party did under (Sir) Mr Tony. We know that it is not a continuation of the special 'positive' factors under Corbyn: there are very sound reasons to believe that the Party will poll rather worse with BoBo electors, and that not only will the unusual consolidation of Muslim voters not be repeated but that there will be a substantial drop in support there. Casting the net a little wider, the general feeling is that amongst minority voters in general it will be a bit of a wash: great improvements from some, treading water with others, continued or new troubles with others still. So, who does this leave, exactly? Because it certainly isn't the actual hard core of the Conservative Party's electorate that has been moving over: it may truly be crumbling, but if it crumbles at the polling station for real, those votes will not move directly to Labour. So, again, who does this leave, exactly?

It is a complete hunch but I would love to see the vote totals among the new build estates in part of Bedfordshire where you can now easily commute into London- especially if you work only 2-3 days in the city.

These people weren't exactly tribal tories (likely to be couples in their 30s/40s with children) but I'm partly convinced Labour is going to clean up with them; the generation is slightly older than me but I know a few couples who would have been voting Conservative in 2010/2015 if they were at this stage of their life but would now recoil at the idea.

Ipsos figures from May 2024 by tenure (thanks to "hullenedge" of VoteUK for posting this):
https://twitter.com/BenIpsosUK/status/1801547327942930530

People with mortgages: Lab 52 Con 17
(not that much less Labour/more Tory than social or private renters)

[oldtimer]

On the other subject discussed in this thread recently, it is worth considering an issue that has been subject to remarkably little interest or analysis in the media elsewhere: who exactly are all these people who have been switching their votes to Labour? We know that it is not a continuation of the pro-European vote that was such a feature of the last election, while we have fairly strong indicators from local elections that Labour does not presently have the mysterious extra appeal to Middle England that the Party did under (Sir) Mr Tony. We know that it is not a continuation of the special 'positive' factors under Corbyn: there are very sound reasons to believe that the Party will poll rather worse with BoBo electors, and that not only will the unusual consolidation of Muslim voters not be repeated but that there will be a substantial drop in support there. Casting the net a little wider, the general feeling is that amongst minority voters in general it will be a bit of a wash: great improvements from some, treading water with others, continued or new troubles with others still. So, who does this leave, exactly? Because it certainly isn't the actual hard core of the Conservative Party's electorate that has been moving over: it may truly be crumbling, but if it crumbles at the polling station for real, those votes will not move directly to Labour. So, again, who does this leave, exactly?

The moving parts for Labour appear to be:

In the North
2010 LAB ->'15 UKIP -> '16 Leave -> '17 LAB ->'19 CON -> '24 LAB

In the South
2010 LD -> '15 CON -> '16 Remain -> '17 CON -> '19CON -> '24 LAB-LD tactical vote

It's simplistic, so some parts like 2010 Conservative Remainers might be missing, but I expect those to be defecting to the LD way more than Labour.

[Skye]

I just noticed Reform UK didn't field a candidate in Doncaster North, Ed Miliband's seat and one of the constituencies with the highest Leave %. His majority collapsed in 2019 (Brexit party candidate got 20% of the vote back then 💀) so curious to see how he performs this year given the Tory collapse. I don't think anyone expects him to be in danger, but still.

[Alcibiades]

I just noticed Reform UK didn't field a candidate in Doncaster North, Ed Miliband's seat and one of the constituencies with the highest Leave %. His majority collapsed in 2019 (Brexit party candidate got 20% of the vote back then 💀) so curious to see how he performs this year given the Tory collapse. I don't think anyone expects him to be in danger, but still.

There is an SDP candidate running, so it seems like this could be one of the seats subject to the Reform-SDP pact. Even so, pretty odd for the reasons you mention that Reform were happy to relinquish the seat to the SDP.

[brucejoel99]

I just noticed Reform UK didn't field a candidate in Doncaster North, Ed Miliband's seat and one of the constituencies with the highest Leave %. His majority collapsed in 2019 (Brexit party candidate got 20% of the vote back then 💀) so curious to see how he performs this year given the Tory collapse. I don't think anyone expects him to be in danger, but still.

There is an SDP candidate running, so it seems like this could be one of the seats subject to the Reform-SDP pact. Even so, pretty odd for the reasons you mention that Reform were happy to relinquish the seat to the SDP.

"Chaos with Ed Milliband" is sadly now limited exclusively to the boundaries of Doncaster North 😩

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

What sort of early benchmark seats should we be looking at in a few weeks? E.g., to see how well Labour, the Lib Dems, and RefUK are doing and how poorly the Tories are doing?

[brucejoel99]

What sort of early benchmark seats should we be looking at in a few weeks? E.g., to see how well Labour, the Lib Dems, and RefUK are doing and how poorly the Tories are doing?

Sunderland always goes Labour but may forecast national swing, Reform gained ~15% in May's locals.

[Germany1994]

Sorry for being a bit OT but I have a question: Why are almost all major newspapers in the UK conservative?? The only expections are Daily Mirror and Guardian iirc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, again, who does this leave, exactly?

More later, but I'll just note quickly that this is a rhetorical question: in broad terms at least (and at this stage of a campaign broad terms are all anyone every has) we know the answer, and my point is that you can deduce it quite quickly simply by a process of elimination. But we've also all seen the general patterns in parliamentary by-elections and (as much as these must always be heavily caveated) local elections. The lack of interest in the media is curious, but I think can be explained by the fact that we have a whole generation of political journalists at present who (with certain honourable exceptions) have no interest in how material factors shape politics, and so find all of this... dull.

[oldtimer]

What sort of early benchmark seats should we be looking at in a few weeks? E.g., to see how well Labour, the Lib Dems, and RefUK are doing and how poorly the Tories are doing?

Swinging Swindon has been quite good with a relatively quick count.

[oldtimer]

Sorry for being a bit OT but I have a question: Why are almost all major newspapers in the UK conservative?? The only expections are Daily Mirror and Guardian iirc.

It's the British market .

British TV and Radio is highly censored and mostly publicly owned or controlled, so it caters to a mostly center-left intellectual audience with some exceptions.

So anyone not intellectual or center-left is mostly left with newspapers and the internet, creating a large market for cutthroad populism in the press.

[JimJamUK]

Sorry for being a bit OT but I have a question: Why are almost all major newspapers in the UK conservative?? The only expections are Daily Mirror and Guardian iirc.

The obvious is that Murdoch owns a good proportion of the market and his papers have all moved right in recent decades as his media has elsewhere. More generally, most papers appeal to a much older and middle class audience which is therefore Conservative leaning. If this election was a dead-heat, then a number of papers that backed Blair would be backing the Conservatives as they and their readership are to the right of the country as a whole.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1802446113124778345