United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You have to be so derangedly poll-brained to think that just because this gimmick has a plurality of support in the abstract that a single voter is going to actually change their vote over it.

And it doesn't even have that: the suggestion is very unpopular.

[afleitch]

You have to be so derangedly poll-brained to think that just because this gimmick has a plurality of support in the abstract that a single voter is going to actually change their vote over it.

And it doesn't even have that: the suggestion is very unpopular.

And polling is nebulous if it doesn't define what it is and who it applies to. Now that is been narrowed down, it's bombed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And polling is nebulous if it doesn't define what it is and who it applies to. Now that is been narrowed down, it's bombed.

Yes: as soon as you make it clear that you mean 'conscription', then it's like watching a soufflé collapse.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As it happens a particularly stupid Conservative backbencher asked a written question about this very subject recently, and it was answered in the Commons just three days ago:

<sub>Mark Pritchard: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, whether he has made an assessment of the potential impact of the reintroduction of national service on national security.

Andrew Murrison - parly sec -: The Government has no current plans to reintroduce National Service. Since 1963, when the last national servicemen were discharged, it has been the policy of successive Governments that the best way of providing for the defence of our country is by maintaining professional Armed Forces staffed by volunteers. The demanding, increasingly technical, nature of defence today is such that we require highly trained, professional men and women in our Regular and Reserve Armed Forces, fully committed to giving their best in defending our country and its allies.

If potentially unwilling National Service recruits were to be obliged to serve alongside the professional men and women of our Armed Forces, it could damage morale, recruitment and retention and would consume professional military and naval resources. If, on the other hand, National Service recruits were kept in separate units, it would be difficult to find a proper and meaningful role for them, potentially harming motivation and discipline. For all these reasons, there are no current plans for the restoration of any form of National Service.</sub>

[TheTide]

You have to be so derangedly poll-brained to think that just because this gimmick has a plurality of support in the abstract that a single voter is going to actually change their vote over it.

And it doesn't even have that: the suggestion is very unpopular.

The minority which does support it almost certainly, overall, prioritises the economy, the NHS, housing, schools, taxation etc etc etc. The average view amongst these is probably something along the lines of "okay, fair enough, but aren't there more important things to worry about?". 

I assume there will be a (hypothetical) voting intention poll of 16 and 17 year-olds at some point. Should make for hilarious reading.      

[Blair]

There is also, from anecdotal experience, a lot more sympathy for people of that age group in terms of the lack of a social contract; especially for people with family members that age.

People are able to look at house prices, the cost of university, the cost of renting etc and work out that people of that age aren't exactly getting an easy ride.

I got particularly annoyed to see Cameron tweet some crap about young people needing to give back to their communities; love being told that by a PR man who decided to give back at that age by check notes studying PPE at Oxford and working as a PR man and CCHQ staffer

[TheTide]

There is also, from anecdotal experience, a lot more sympathy for people of that age group in terms of the lack of a social contract; especially for people with family members that age.

People are able to look at house prices, the cost of university, the cost of renting etc and work out that people of that age aren't exactly getting an easy ride.

I got particularly annoyed to see Cameron tweet some crap about young people needing to give back to their communities; love being told that by a PR man who decided to give back at that age by check notes studying PPE at Oxford and working as a PR man and CCHQ staffer

The Covid experience has probably increased sympathy for that age group too.

James O'Brien (not someone who I generally have a lot of time for) said that there might be some grandparents who think this is a good idea for the grandchildren of others, but not for their own grandchildren. It's a pretty good point IMO.

[afleitch]

I have noticed, and it's been reiterated a bit on the Sunday's, that Labour are tentatively 'vibing' a bit more centre-left than pre-campaign. No substance yet, but I think it demonstrates confidence going into the campaign.

[super6646]

Just read the national service plan the  tories want to institute, WTF are they thinking haha. Seriously, sunak absolutely wants to make sure he doesn’t have a job in gov asap. Don’t blame him, he’s got the money and connections to live it up.

[Zinneke]

Just read the national service plan the  tories want to institute, WTF are they thinking haha. Seriously, it’s like sunak absolutely wants to make sure he doesn’t have a job asap.

You write that last bit as if it's a surprise if he does want to just call it quits and get his kids in a nice Californian school before start of term. Like I said in a previous thread, it's patently obvious he has no respect for the status of the office. I doubt for example he'll even bother turning up for "Former PM events".

He sees it as another line on the CV. It's part of what makes him horrible at politics.

[MaxQue]

'Bring Back National Service' is essentially the Conservative equivalent of 'we could... er... nationalize... *rolls dice*... the [insert here] industry'. It is an indicator that they are panicking and have irrationally decided that half-baked ideas that the stupidest members of their local associations and backbench like to trot out as solutions to every problem will strike a chord with the electorate.

And on that one, Labour doesn't look desperate with their rail proposals, because the average person sees the problems in the rail industry.

[LabourJersey]

Even if the Tories were re-elected, there would never be conscription in Northern Ireland. It's just not happening.

There wasn't in either World War for all the reasons that come to mind (as much about increasing the risk of Loyalist militias as enraging nationalists forced to swear allegiance to the King). An attempt to impose it in 1918 was never implemented after the uproar.

The relevance of NI is whether Sunak has a one sentence answer that justifies it not applying there, while being a requirement everywhere else.

Also curious about Sunak's evantual answer about this.

Would hardly be the first time that the Tories came up with a policy without considering the impact on NI.

[ObserverIE]

As it happens a particularly stupid Conservative backbencher asked a written question about this very subject recently, and it was answered in the Commons just three days ago:

<sub>Mark Pritchard: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, whether he has made an assessment of the potential impact of the reintroduction of national service on national security.

Andrew Murrison - parly sec -: The Government has no current plans to reintroduce National Service. Since 1963, when the last national servicemen were discharged, it has been the policy of successive Governments that the best way of providing for the defence of our country is by maintaining professional Armed Forces staffed by volunteers. The demanding, increasingly technical, nature of defence today is such that we require highly trained, professional men and women in our Regular and Reserve Armed Forces, fully committed to giving their best in defending our country and its allies.

If potentially unwilling National Service recruits were to be obliged to serve alongside the professional men and women of our Armed Forces, it could damage morale, recruitment and retention and would consume professional military and naval resources. If, on the other hand, National Service recruits were kept in separate units, it would be difficult to find a proper and meaningful role for them, potentially harming motivation and discipline. For all these reasons, there are no current plans for the restoration of any form of National Service.</sub>

ShRoPsHiRe ToRiEs FoR tHe WiN.

[Torrain]

Even if the Tories were re-elected, there would never be conscription in Northern Ireland. It's just not happening.

There wasn't in either World War for all the reasons that come to mind (as much about increasing the risk of Loyalist militias as enraging nationalists forced to swear allegiance to the King). An attempt to impose it in 1918 was never implemented after the uproar.

The relevance of NI is whether Sunak has a one sentence answer that justifies it not applying there, while being a requirement everywhere else.

Also curious about Sunak's evantual answer about this.

Would hardly be the first time that the Tories came up with a policy without considering the impact on NI.

Missed this last night, but there is a answer, of sorts:
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1794496596123779342

[ObserverIE]

Even if the Tories were re-elected, there would never be conscription in Northern Ireland. It's just not happening.

There wasn't in either World War for all the reasons that come to mind (as much about increasing the risk of Loyalist militias as enraging nationalists forced to swear allegiance to the King). An attempt to impose it in 1918 was never implemented after the uproar.

The relevance of NI is whether Sunak has a one sentence answer that justifies it not applying there, while being a requirement everywhere else.

The Stormont Government was very keen on the idea in WW2. Coincidentally Protestants would at the time disproportionately have been in Reserved Occupations (shipbuilding, aircraft manufacturing, etc.) , so their reasoning was essentially "ship the Taigs off in the hope of their being cannon-fodder."

Westminster was not that stupid.

[TheTide]

Anyway, where is this avalanche of retirements that the briefings on Friday suggested was going to happen over this weekend? I suppose some people don't wish to add salt to the prevailing wound.

[CumbrianLefty]

I have noticed, and it's been reiterated a bit on the Sunday's, that Labour are tentatively 'vibing' a bit more centre-left than pre-campaign. No substance yet, but I think it demonstrates confidence going into the campaign.

Not a massive surprise really, it was always likely that the pre-election period would be largely about closing off Tory attack lines as much as possible in preparation for the main event.

And as some of us have long said, wait for the manifesto.....

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/IslingtonNorth/status/1794752928516841501?t=j8g2zC4D37JHGNJp...

Continuing tensions in Islington North between the party and the membership. Whether this will matter, Idk. The most politically engaged in the seat mat diverge from the average (Labour) voter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CLP officers are further distinct from members in general.

[Torrain]

From the man who brought you an entire local election campaign built around 'the letter', comes a bold new campaigning tactic:
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1794787580212391981

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If they're serious about replaying the old hits I can't wait for the dementia tax to be floated again. They've tried pissing off all the young people that won't vote for them, how about all the oldies who will.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/EoghanHeriot/status/1794804983541772556
This is a joke but it's telling the Tories can be effectively mocked like this isn't it?

[Torrain]

First Scottish poll of the campaign, from More In Common:

• Labour 35%
• SNP 30%
• Conservatives 17%
• Liberal Democrats at 10%
• Reform UK 4%
• Greens at 3%

If you plug that into a universal swing model, it puts us roughly on 28 Lab, 16 SNP, 8 Tory, 5 Lib Dem. Usual disclaimers about universal swing and tactical voting apply - we don't know how well anti-SNP unionist tactical voting will hold up compared to anti-Tory tactical voting.

[Coldstream]

Spent the day doorknocking, had 7 people raise to me the National service plan (all negative). Not since the dementia tax has there been such a poorly performing policy. It’s wonderful.

[Logical]

Up next, bringing back fox hunting and death penalty.