United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[TheTide]

Sunak is campaigning in a well-known marginal seat...his own.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1793975180143775920

Those numbers. Can't breach 10% amongst under 40's (they got 24% amongst that age group in 1997)

It's extinction level.

My god, 70+ Britons are some real sickos.

Funnily enough, of the eight living Prime Ministers, the two who are in their 70s are the two Labour ones.

[Flyersfan232]

The canada election comparison comes to my mind is the Liberal one where they accidentally assaulted a teenager, the PM lost his cool with literal preteens and a cabinet minister poked a farmer calling him fat.

irony is we
Might be comparing the next Canadian election to this one

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The canada election comparison comes to my mind is the Liberal one where they accidentally assaulted a teenager, the PM lost his cool with literal preteens and a cabinet minister poked a farmer calling him fat.

The Tories would kill for the position the Grits had in 1957. The Liberals very nearly won and would have still done so if not for that aforementioned rally. It would take a miracle to save the Tory government this time.

[oldtimer]

Already too late for that. Parliament was prorogued today (official Dissolution is next week).

Technically it can be done, because Parliament hasn't dissolved yet.

But it probably can't be done through letters, because I can't imagine Brady accepting them.

(I think a book should be written about how Brady destroyed the Conservatives through his role as Chairman of the 1922 for all this time)

[Mike88]

Under UK rules, can Sunak remain PM until 4 July but the Tories presenting another PM candidate for the election?

[MABA 2020]

The canada election comparison comes to my mind is the Liberal one where they accidentally assaulted a teenager, the PM lost his cool with literal preteens and a cabinet minister poked a farmer calling him fat.

Gosh which election was that?

[oldtimer]

Sunak is campaigning in a well-known marginal seat...his own.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1793975180143775920
Those numbers. Can't breach 10% amongst under 40's (they got 24% amongst that age group in 1997)

It's extinction level.

My god, 70+ Britons are some real sickos.

Funnily enough, of the eight living Prime Ministers, the two who are in their 70s are the two Labour ones.

I never high rated Sunak to win his own seat once he became a known figure:

A. He's the minority version of Bertie Wooster.
B. He's probably never visited his own seat before.
C. This is the 1st election that local voters know he's their representative.
D. He never campaigned before in his life.

[Torrain]

Under UK rules, can Sunak remain PM until 4 July but the Tories presenting another PM candidate for the election?

Nothing standing in the way, theoretically. The Liberal Party pulled this stunt a couple of times. Most notably, Gladstone resigned the leadership, leaving the party with a Commons and Lords leader, but no *party leader*, from 1875-1880, and then took the leadership back after the party won an election in that state.

Sunak is PM until he resigns, and advises Charles to appoint someone who can command the confidence of the Commons. The reason it won’t happen is that it hasn’t happened in the post-war era, is a bit of a fiddle with the party constitution (which assured members a vote on their leader) and will only cause the Tories more trouble.

[oldtimer]

Under UK rules, can Sunak remain PM until 4 July but the Tories presenting another PM candidate for the election?

Sunak can be sacked by the Cabinet or he can resign as PM before dissolution, which is I think this Thursday.

If that happens, the Cabinet selects a new PM which goes to the King and postpones the election.

After dissolution, Sunak or whoever the Cabinet designates, remains PM until July 5th, the Conservatives won't have a leader until after the election.

If the Conservatives fail to elect any MP ( given their dire straits why not ?) they won't have a leader, according to their rules it has to be an MP not a Lord.

[Mike88]

Hmm, right... So no chance of happening what is quite common in other European countries, where the incumbent PM remains as caretaker but the party in power presents another candidate. Plus, yeah, there is no time for this kind of process, 40 days until election day.

[oldtimer]

Hmm, right... So no chance of happening what is quite common in other European countries, where the incumbent PM remains as caretaker but the party in power presents another candidate.

Yeap.

The only way the Conservatives get a new leader for the upcoming election, is if Sunak gets booted out by this Wednesday night.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/ChamberVoice/status/1794321611035947338

[GenerationTerrorist]

So apparently Sunak is taking a “day off” from the campaign trail tomorrow.

Sunak supports Southampton, and they are playing Leeds United in the playoff final at Wembley. He'll probably be there watching that.

(Come on Leeds!)

[Torrain]

Sunak supports Southampton, and they are playing Leeds United in the playoff final at Wembley. He'll probably be there watching that.

(Come on Leeds!)

Oh good shout - presumably they’re setting up a photoshoot, but not telling in advance.

If Southampton win, they get to release photos of a celebrating Sunak doing the classic “I like football, I’m a man of the people” schtick. Whereas if they lose, they’ll scrap it so it doesn’t get added to the Titanic and EXIT sign photos.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Technically it can be done, because Parliament hasn't dissolved yet.

Not yet, but it has been prorogued for a dissolution, the date of which has been set. This is where the political nature of the British Constitution makes theoretical questions very tricky: if something is arguably theoretically possible but is certainly not politically possible, is it actually theoretically possible at all?

[Harlow]

It's insane that this discussion is even being had, but that's the state of British politics I guess.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Under UK rules, can Sunak remain PM until 4 July but the Tories presenting another PM candidate for the election?

There are actually no formal candidates for Prime Minister in Britain, it is just always presumed that the leader of a particular party is that party's candidate for Prime Minister as it is the convention for the monarch to ask the leader in the House of whichever party that can command the confidence of the House to form a government. Thus Herbert Morrison's unsuccessful attempt to coup out Attlee after the results of the 1945 election were declared.*

Sunak can be sacked by the Cabinet...

A Prime Minister cannot be sacked by the Cabinet as its members serve at his/her pleasure and not the other way around. Though, in practice, if the entire Cabinet turned on a Prime Minister that would likely lead to his/her fall all the same, though could lead to a constitutional crisis (as nearly happened with Johnson).

_{*Attlee got his revenge a decade later by staying on as Labour Leader until after the 1955 election even though he was too old for the post in order to ensure that Morrison, too, would be too old to win the leadership election after his retirement. A dish served deep frozen man, was Clem.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's insane that this discussion is even being had, but that's the state of British politics I guess.

Well, it's the state of the Conservative Party.

[Blair]

Sunak is campaigning in a well-known marginal seat...his own.

Tbf after the North Yorkshire Mayoral results it wouldn't be a terrible idea!

[Blair]

The obsession with Brand Rishi and the excitement a lot of centre-right commentators have over him (he can do an excel sheet!) has really ignored the fact he is a lousy campaigner; he was pretty terrible in the 2022 Leadership race; forgotten now but he made a big pious point of saying 'we can't afford tax cuts' and then pivoted to tax cuts when he realised he was losing. He also kept doing a weird thing about 'protecting our women'... and well we all see how he was during the locals.

The thing that would worry me if I was a Tory MP is that this was planned; they have know for a month or so they were going for July and they decided one of there last big announcements as a Government would be around gender guidance to schools!

 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Technically it can be done, because Parliament hasn't dissolved yet.

Not yet, but it has been prorogued for a dissolution, the date of which has been set. This is where the political nature of the British Constitution makes theoretical questions very tricky: if something is arguably theoretically possible but is certainly not politically possible, is it actually theoretically possible at all?

So in the absence of a controlling precedent, it would be incumbent on Charles to grant or deny Rishi's request to rescind the dissolution? I imagine he'd have public and expert opinion on his side if he told him to pound sand.

[Torrain]

So in the absence of a controlling precedent, it would be incumbent on Charles to grant or deny Rishi's request to rescind the dissolution? I imagine he'd have public and expert opinion on his side if he told him to pound sand.

The monarch's inner circle usually work to avoid them ever being put in that position in the first place. It was made clear to Johnson, when he had lost the party's confidence, that if he tried to call Buckingham Palace to arrange a dissolution, that the Queen would likely be unavoidably busy elsewhere, and unable to talk.

Graham Brady is known to have colluded with government whips and palace officials as part of a larger effort to ensure Brenda wasn't politically exposed by Johnson's desperate bid to cling on.

Al will have a clearer idea, but I imagine that if Sunak picked up the phone to the Palace tomorrow, he'd probably be told that Brian had just left for a brisk walk/departed for Sandringham/was feeling a bit under the weather etc, having been tipped off in advance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So in the absence of a controlling precedent, it would be incumbent on Charles to grant or deny Rishi's request to rescind the dissolution? I imagine he'd have public and expert opinion on his side if he told him to pound sand.

The monarch's inner circle usually work to avoid them ever being put in that position in the first place. It was made clear to Johnson, when he had lost the party's confidence, that if he tried to call Buckingham Palace to arrange a dissolution, that the Queen would likely be unavoidably busy elsewhere, and unable to talk.

Graham Brady is known to have colluded with government whips and palace officials as part of a larger effort to ensure Brenda wasn't politically exposed by Johnson's desperate bid to cling on.

Al will have a clearer idea, but I imagine that if Sunak picked up the phone to the Palace tomorrow, he'd probably be told that Brian had just left for a brisk walk/departed for Sandringham/was feeling a bit under the weather etc, having been tipped off in advance.

Amazing.

On a first-principles normative political theory basis I have nothing but contempt for these petty institutional shenanigans, but as an enjoyer of Drama I have to admit they're delightful.

[oldtimer]

Technically it can be done, because Parliament hasn't dissolved yet.

Not yet, but it has been prorogued for a dissolution, the date of which has been set. This is where the political nature of the British Constitution makes theoretical questions very tricky: if something is arguably theoretically possible but is certainly not politically possible, is it actually theoretically possible at all?

Lets look at this excersice:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/24/andrea-leadsom-asked-no-confidence-letter-pm/

"It came amid rumours that Tory rebels are preparing to launch one final bid to oust Mr Sunak and stop the snap election."

Say they succeed by Thursday, and they get a temporary PM to ask the King to postpone it so that the Conservatives can have a proper leadership election during the Summer.

"We need some extra time to elect a new leader" sounds a reasonable argument.

[MaxQue]

Technically it can be done, because Parliament hasn't dissolved yet.

Not yet, but it has been prorogued for a dissolution, the date of which has been set. This is where the political nature of the British Constitution makes theoretical questions very tricky: if something is arguably theoretically possible but is certainly not politically possible, is it actually theoretically possible at all?

Lets look at this excersice:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/24/andrea-leadsom-asked-no-confidence-letter-pm/

"It came amid rumours that Tory rebels are preparing to launch one final bid to oust Mr Sunak and stop the snap election."

Say they succeed by Thursday, and they get a temporary PM to ask the King to postpone it so that the Conservatives can have a proper leadership election during the Summer.

"We need some extra time to elect a new leader" sounds a reasonable argument.

The most likely result would be that the King is unwell and can't receive them.