United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[YL]

These are all winnable and most of them are notionally Labour in 2019. Some of them are due to late retirements (e.g. Makerfield) or previously selected candidates pulling out (Altrincham & Sale West).

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1793771348608610553

Dewsbury & Batley could be complicated; the Labour group on Kirklees council is currently undergoing a slow moving car crash and it is centred in the wards in that constituency, which is one of the areas where a lot of seats were lost to Independents earlier this month.

[Hnv1]

Given the Tories will be reduced to some figure under 200 seats, with most being shire\rural seats, are there any thoughts on the next leader? The future MPs will likely favour the right wing of the party in that composition of the safest Tory seats with hardly any urban seats.

If the selection group is too slim and uninspiring will we see something surprising such as a tory from the lords or outside parliament try and win before getting elected to the commons?

[YL]

Corbyn has just announced that he is standing as an Independent in Islington North

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1793899852624953398

[TheTide]

And John Redwood (the Tory equivalent to Corbyn in some ways) has announced he's standing down in his Wokingham seat. There won't be many MPs who were first elected before the 1990s left in the next Parliament.

[afleitch]

Corbyn himself was elected in 1983 with his 'colourful' predecessor Michael O'Halloran standing as an independent (having jumped to and then not being selected by the SDP.)

Different sides of the political spectrum of course.

[Torrain]

And John Redwood (the Tory equivalent to Corbyn in some ways) has announced he's standing down in his Wokingham seat. There won't be many MPs who were first elected before the 1990s left in the next Parliament.

A shame. I was looking forward to seeing his once unassailable majority (whittled down to 7k in 2019) taken down in a wave started by his own brand of Thatcherism-turned-Trussism.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1793921571154690327?t=2kvTqE-pvkOkVRPmJ2Y...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just came across this on YouTube.
Evidently Labour does seem to know very well what it's doing.

[Torrain]

Claudia Webbe is running again!?!

Can she get less votes than Chris Williamson in 2019?

My initial instinct is that having the opportunity to vote *against Webbe* will make voters less likely to vote *against Labour*, but I’d be interested to hear from those with a better sense of the area - given how unpredictable Leicester East feels right now.

[TheTide]

Just came across this on YouTube.
Evidently Labour does seem to know very well what it's doing.

I've seen about three different Labour ads on YouTube videos that aren't related to politics (the videos that is, not the ads). Don't recall any party going this hard on YouTube in 2019. Obviously YouTube has become more MSM since then.

[YL]

Claudia Webbe is running again!?!

Can she get less votes than Chris Williamson in 2019?

My initial instinct is that having the opportunity to vote *against Webbe* will make voters less likely to vote *against Labour*, but I’d be interested to hear from those with a better sense of the area - given how unpredictable Leicester East feels right now.

There have been reports that a certain other former Labour MP for that constituency may also stand as an Independent, though I don’t think they’ve been confirmed yet.

In spite of the speculation that it could be a Tory gain against the trend, they don’t actually have a candidate in place yet.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Corbyn has just announced that he is standing as an Independent in Islington North

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1793899852624953398

Does he have a shot of winning here?

[morgieb]

Corbyn has just announced that he is standing as an Independent in Islington North

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1793899852624953398

Does he have a shot of winning here?

Definitely. It still sounds like he has a lot of popularity in his electorate and he'll no doubt be able to get lots of volunteers. The big question is who Labour pick as the replacement and whether the transient nature of the seat works against him.

If I had to call I think he'd probably be the favourite but I could easily see him winning in a blowout or losing quite comfortably.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Corbyn has just announced that he is standing as an Independent in Islington North

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1793899852624953398

Does he have a shot of winning here?

Definitely. It still sounds like he has a lot of popularity in his electorate and he'll no doubt be able to get lots of volunteers. The big question is who Labour pick as the replacement and whether the transient nature of the seat works against him.

If I had to call I think he'd probably be the favourite but I could easily see him winning in a blowout or losing quite comfortably.

Thanks for the explanation.

How is the district demographically. Does it have many voters of Arab descent since I think that would probably favour his chances quite a bit?

[Cassius]

Corbyn has just announced that he is standing as an Independent in Islington North

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1793899852624953398

Does he have a shot of winning here?

Definitely. It still sounds like he has a lot of popularity in his electorate and he'll no doubt be able to get lots of volunteers. The big question is who Labour pick as the replacement and whether the transient nature of the seat works against him.

If I had to call I think he'd probably be the favourite but I could easily see him winning in a blowout or losing quite comfortably.

Thanks for the explanation.

How is the district demographically. Does it have many voters of Arab descent since I think that would probably favour his chances quite a bit?

There are (to my knowledge) no constituencies in the UK where there is a concentrated ‘Arab vote’ that would be enough to swing an election (there are a lot of Arabs living in Central and West London, but these tend not to be the type of people who will be voting in British elections) and certainly not in Islington North. It’s difficult to find stats on the Muslim percentage of the population by seat, but in Islington North I think it was about 10% in 2011 (on the old boundaries), which is a lot smaller than the other constituencies where the ‘Muslim vote’ has been a significant factor.

The seat is obviously fairly well suited to him demographically, with a very significant ethnic minority population (although lower than the London average) and generally speaking younger, more graduate-y and with much less home-ownership than the London (let alone national) average. By all accounts he’s a popular local MP, but I don’t think this and the above will be enough for him to retain the seat - I envision he’ll get something akin to a Frank Field in Birkenhead 2019 performance as an independent.

[EastAnglianLefty]

You can find census data by ward mapped here: https://boundaryassistant.org/census/index.html?v=2.0

In terms of religion, most wards in the constituency are about 10% Muslim, rising to 20% in Finsbury Park. So it's not a big factor.

[Torrain]

I see Lord Frost has been blocked from standing by CCHQ. Lol

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/PARLYapp/status/1793944400151925024?t=Pz5RqK0rLuU49mThELUqMA...

Lmao

[Torrain]

Bookmarking this seat, in case the electorate have a Literal Democrats moment.

[TheTide]

Craig Mackinlay (Conservative, Thanet South, about to become Thanet East) won't be seeking re-election. Went out on a high note, of course.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13455921/Manchester-bombing-Martyns-law-Figen-Murrey-election-Sunak.html

I understand the unfortunate timing that this woman arrived on her trek literally the day the election was announced, but not a great look for sunak to lie to her face.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/londonlabour/status/1793978754236400076?s=46&t=i-UD2LZov...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1793969911871791599?t=IZROjWLrsRRrvi3...

A pretty prominent recruit in an area that's not immediately expected to be Lib-Dem.

Also on the orange side of things, Greg Clark in Tunbridge Wells is standing down,  making it seem more likely the seat finally flips Lib-Dem.

[TheTide]

Clark is pretty much the wettest of the wets and Redwood the driest of the dries so it's pretty funny that they announce their retirements within a few hours of each other

[TheTide]

Beware of this atrocious account (which mischievously uses the name of a fairly well-regarded but now-defunct polling website) that might pop up on your Twitter feeds. This post in particular is a good example of its atrociousness.

https://twitter.com/PollingReportUK/status/1793907158284652565