United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

We should also note that there is, of course, also an election on in Northern Ireland and that an unusually high proportion of seats seem likely to be competitive this time around.

Wish that we’d get some polling. I’d be interested to see if Alliance can get a second seat. No idea what else to expect until we know if there’s any seats that parties stand down in.

[Zinneke]

Talking of cringeworthy moments (from Sunak and whoever else), what's it going to be like once the Euros actually get going? There isn't much precedent for this. The 1970 World Cup was of course before the 24/7 news cycle, let alone social media. There's already been plenty of stupid photos and posts on Twitter etc from politicians during Euros and World Cups but they weren't during general election campaigns.

Cringeworthy photo ops of politicians in England's home kit with a beer in hand and a barbecue sizzling in the background cheering on. That is all. (I seem to recall Gordon Brown being advised not to do anything about England 2010 because it would seem inauthentic because he's Scottish)

More relevant is if Sunak turns up to support Southampton at Wembley or if like Cameron he gets his team wrong and support Olympiakos in Athens instead.

[DL]

I wonder if there will come a point in the campaign where everyone knows Labour will win in a huge landslide and then the Tory "save the furniture" campaign boils down do "re-elect so and so in order to have a viable opposition at Westminster"...that might save a few Tories who might have some residual personal popularity

[Torrain]

Word clouds are silly, and unrepresentative. Funny though.
https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1793721638485184804

[Blair]

It’s fun noticing what the Tories are saying as they always obsess and focus group phrases- latest seems to be their ‘plan’ which is weird as it’s common knowledge they don’t have much of an idea for a manifesto.

Also bizarre they still want to make Rwanda the big issue; which many people keep telling them just reminds people of their unpopularity and failure

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

The Rwanda plan is so absurd and ridiculous that, even years after it was first suggested, I keep thinking it's some unoriginal anti-Tory piece of satire.

[EastAnglianLefty]

We should also note that there is, of course, also an election on in Northern Ireland and that an unusually high proportion of seats seem likely to be competitive this time around.

Wish that we’d get some polling. I’d be interested to see if Alliance can get a second seat. No idea what else to expect until we know if there’s any seats that parties stand down in.

Polling in NI isn't necessarily very useful for Westminster elections as a) constituency polling in general is bad; b) there's a lot more tactical voting than you get in Stormont contests; c) NI-wide voting shares don't tend to correlate particularly closely to seat counts.

Slightly easier this time, as the only SF seat that seems vulnerable this time is Fermanagh & South Tyrone (although perhaps less than usual), we'll have no idea what's happening in Foyle until they open the ballot boxes and the remaining seats viewed as somewhat competitive are all Alliance-DUP (or united Unionist) contests.

[YL]

We should also note that there is, of course, also an election on in Northern Ireland and that an unusually high proportion of seats seem likely to be competitive this time around.

Wish that we’d get some polling. I’d be interested to see if Alliance can get a second seat. No idea what else to expect until we know if there’s any seats that parties stand down in.

Belfast East: boundary changes probably marginally help Alliance and they must have a decent chance

Belfast South & Mid Down: if it weren't for tactical voting this would be very interesting, but as it is the SDLP will probably hold comfortably

Belfast West: zzzzz

Belfast North: boundary changes help SF a little and in the absence of anything splitting their vote they should hold on

North Down: I think Farry (Alliance) is favoured but there is this challenge from Independent Unionist Alex Easton.

Strangford: boundary changes help Alliance (by bringing in heavily Catholic areas where they will hope to get tactical votes) but probably not by enough unless the DUP are having a real meltdown

Lagan Valley: I would be sceptical of Alliance's chances here if it weren't for the DUP's troubles, which I think give them a genuine chance

South Down: if the SDLP couldn't win this back in 2019 I doubt they do now

Newry & Armagh: see Belfast West

Upper Bann: DUP should be safe enough here

Fermanagh & South Tyrone: well, it's Fermanagh & South Tyrone, so close between SF and the UUP with the former favoured

West Tyrone: see Belfast West

Mid Ulster: see Belfast West

Foyle: I think the SDLP's huge win in 2019 was a one-off and SF are in with a chance of taking this back

East Derry: still pretty safe DUP

North Antrim: if the TUV were going to win anywhere it would be here, but I would be a bit surprised

East Antrim: another Alliance long shot, but I think it's less likely than Lagan Valley or Strangford

South Antrim: the UUP's best chance of taking a seat back from the DUP, and the latter's troubles mean they must actually have a decent chance

[Pericles]

It's fascinating how Labour can run the 'are you better off than you were 14 years ago' line when 2010 was the middle of the GFC.

[Conservatopia]

Talking of cringeworthy moments (from Sunak and whoever else), what's it going to be like once the Euros actually get going? There isn't much precedent for this. The 1970 World Cup was of course before the 24/7 news cycle, let alone social media. There's already been plenty of stupid photos and posts on Twitter etc from politicians during Euros and World Cups but they weren't during general election campaigns.

Cringeworthy photo ops of politicians in England's home kit with a beer in hand and a barbecue sizzling in the background cheering on. That is all. (I seem to recall Gordon Brown being advised not to do anything about England 2010 because it would seem inauthentic because he's Scottish)

More relevant is if Sunak turns up to support Southampton at Wembley or if like Cameron he gets his team wrong and support Olympiakos in Athens instead.

The England team will be called the "hope of the nation" before the tournament, "a light in dark times for our country" when the dominate their group stage and then "emblematic of a broken Britain" when they lose 4-0 in the quarter finals.

[somerandomth]

It's fascinating how Labour can run the 'are you better off than you were 14 years ago' line when 2010 was the middle of the GFC.

I suspect a lot of the general populace don't even remember that much about 2010 and the GFC anymore and they instead remember a general nostalgic view of pre-Brexit politics lol. Voters certainly do have very short memories (especially considering some now-voters were only 4(!) at the time)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's fascinating how Labour can run the 'are you better off than you were 14 years ago' line when 2010 was the middle of the GFC.

I suspect a lot of the general populace don't even remember that much about 2010 and the GFC anymore and they instead remember a general nostalgic view of pre-Brexit politics lol. Voters certainly do have very short memories (especially considering some now-voters were only 4(!) at the time)

A more competent Tory party might have been able to nail Labour for this, right? Ofc, it's clear we aren't facing the most competent Tory party right now.

[LabourJersey]

We should also note that there is, of course, also an election on in Northern Ireland and that an unusually high proportion of seats seem likely to be competitive this time around.

Wish that we’d get some polling. I’d be interested to see if Alliance can get a second seat. No idea what else to expect until we know if there’s any seats that parties stand down in.

Belfast East: boundary changes probably marginally help Alliance and they must have a decent chance

Belfast South & Mid Down: if it weren't for tactical voting this would be very interesting, but as it is the SDLP will probably hold comfortably

Belfast West: zzzzz

Belfast North: boundary changes help SF a little and in the absence of anything splitting their vote they should hold on

North Down: I think Farry (Alliance) is favoured but there is this challenge from Independent Unionist Alex Easton.

Strangford: boundary changes help Alliance (by bringing in heavily Catholic areas where they will hope to get tactical votes) but probably not by enough unless the DUP are having a real meltdown

Lagan Valley: I would be sceptical of Alliance's chances here if it weren't for the DUP's troubles, which I think give them a genuine chance

South Down: if the SDLP couldn't win this back in 2019 I doubt they do now

Newry & Armagh: see Belfast West

Upper Bann: DUP should be safe enough here

Fermanagh & South Tyrone: well, it's Fermanagh & South Tyrone, so close between SF and the UUP with the former favoured

West Tyrone: see Belfast West

Mid Ulster: see Belfast West

Foyle: I think the SDLP's huge win in 2019 was a one-off and SF are in with a chance of taking this back

East Derry: still pretty safe DUP

North Antrim: if the TUV were going to win anywhere it would be here, but I would be a bit surprised

East Antrim: another Alliance long shot, but I think it's less likely than Lagan Valley or Strangford

South Antrim: the UUP's best chance of taking a seat back from the DUP, and the latter's troubles mean they must actually have a decent chance

Interesting write-up. As someone who's visting NI in a couple weeks I'm very interested to see what it's like, particularly in campaign season

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Techne comes up with their first election poll, fieldwork done wednesday thursday:

LAB: 45% (+1)
CON: 19% (-2)
RFM: 14% (+2)
LDM: 12% (=)
GRN: 5% (-1)

... Guys i've got to stay off the hopium

[Harlow]

Bringing up the smoking ban as a highlight of his tenure is so sad and desperate, wow.

If it sticks it'll probably save hundreds of thousands of people from painful premature deaths. Genuinely a worthwhile policy.

I don't entirely disagree, but I'm not sure the British public feels the same way and it's a difficult selling point. Perhaps I'm wrong.

Welp, lol.

UK's anti-smoking laws could be lost in pre-election parliamentary rush (Reuters)

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-anti-smoking-laws-could-be-lost-pre-election-parliamentary-rush-2024-05-23/

In his speech calling for the election, Sunak had boasted that his government had ensured the next generation would be "smoke-free", but that promise now looks to have been made prematurely.

Penny Mordaunt, the House of Commons leader, did not list the smoking bill on Thursday in the business scheduled to be debated before parliament shuts down for the election. She said cross-party negotiations were ongoing over the future of bills not included in the schedule.

[Frodo]

Why pick our Independence Day -of all days in the calendar- as the day of the UK parliamentary election?  Did Sunak pick it on a whim or something? 

[Oryxslayer]

Why pick our Independence Day -of all days in the calendar- as the day of the UK parliamentary election?  Did Sunak pick it on a whim or something? 

Thursday is the traditional election day in recent times, and the 4th was the first Thursday in the second half of the year? IDK

[Joe Republic]

Why pick our Independence Day -of all days in the calendar- as the day of the UK parliamentary election?  Did Sunak pick it on a whim or something? 

Our presidential election this year is scheduled to take place on Bonfire Night, which is the closest equivalent that the UK has to our Independence Day.  I think it's a fair cultural exchange.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Cringeworthy photo ops of politicians in England's home kit with a beer in hand and a barbecue sizzling in the background cheering on. That is all. (I seem to recall Gordon Brown being advised not to do anything about England 2010 because it would seem inauthentic because he's Scottish)

The Australian advisors know just how to stage a photo of watching the big game!
https://twitter.com/GladysB/status/1402505771003179010

[Steve from Lambeth]

Talking of cringeworthy moments (from Sunak and whoever else), what's it going to be like once the Euros actually get going? There isn't much precedent for this. The 1970 World Cup was of course before the 24/7 news cycle, let alone social media. There's already been plenty of stupid photos and posts on Twitter etc from politicians during Euros and World Cups but they weren't during general election campaigns.

If anything, I'd say that the effect from Mexico '70 was quite the reverse: England got knocked out in almost-embarrassing fashion and Wilson got thrown out of office soon enough. (In what remains, interestingly, the only time one majority has been replaced by another majority at an election. Attlee, Douglas-Home, Callaghan and Major all left in the minority; Wilson was re-elected with a minority then re-re-elected with a majority; Cameron had his coalition.)

UK's anti-smoking laws could be lost in pre-election parliamentary rush (Reuters)

No, they won't. All major parties support it and it is almost certain to be enacted in the next Parliament.

The only such consensus I can remember from 2019 was when all parties promised that they would outlaw the keeping of pet monkeys if elected. I still do not know why pet monkeys were an issue - nobody ever brought it up in any other context. The Kept Animals Bill is, ironically, also doomed.

[Harry Hayfield]

We should also note that there is, of course, also an election on in Northern Ireland and that an unusually high proportion of seats seem likely to be competitive this time around.

Wish that we’d get some polling. I’d be interested to see if Alliance can get a second seat. No idea what else to expect until we know if there’s any seats that parties stand down in.

Belfast East: boundary changes probably marginally help Alliance and they must have a decent chance

Belfast South & Mid Down: if it weren't for tactical voting this would be very interesting, but as it is the SDLP will probably hold comfortably

Belfast West: zzzzz

Belfast North: boundary changes help SF a little and in the absence of anything splitting their vote they should hold on

North Down: I think Farry (Alliance) is favoured but there is this challenge from Independent Unionist Alex Easton.

Strangford: boundary changes help Alliance (by bringing in heavily Catholic areas where they will hope to get tactical votes) but probably not by enough unless the DUP are having a real meltdown

Lagan Valley: I would be sceptical of Alliance's chances here if it weren't for the DUP's troubles, which I think give them a genuine chance

South Down: if the SDLP couldn't win this back in 2019 I doubt they do now

Newry & Armagh: see Belfast West

Upper Bann: DUP should be safe enough here

Fermanagh & South Tyrone: well, it's Fermanagh & South Tyrone, so close between SF and the UUP with the former favoured

West Tyrone: see Belfast West

Mid Ulster: see Belfast West

Foyle: I think the SDLP's huge win in 2019 was a one-off and SF are in with a chance of taking this back

East Derry: still pretty safe DUP

North Antrim: if the TUV were going to win anywhere it would be here, but I would be a bit surprised

East Antrim: another Alliance long shot, but I think it's less likely than Lagan Valley or Strangford

South Antrim: the UUP's best chance of taking a seat back from the DUP, and the latter's troubles mean they must actually have a decent chance

Depending on whether I do a UK or GB forecast on UK-Election I either have just one change (UUP gain Fermanagh) or two changes (SF gain Upper Bann, Alliance gain Belfast East) and of those two the latter seems more plausible

[IceAgeComing]

(In what remains, interestingly, the only time one majority has been replaced by another majority at an election. Attlee, Douglas-Home, Callaghan and Major all left in the minority; Wilson was re-elected with a minority then re-re-elected with a majority; Cameron had his coalition.)

...no? Attlee was elected in 1950 with a majority of 5 that shifted to 3 after a by-election (they went thinking that they might get a more workable majority in 1951; Labour set an all-time record for number of votes cast for a party that stood until 1992 but the Tories got a small majority); in 1959 the Tories were elected with a majority of 100 that fell to about 90 due to by-election losses and a defection but which was still very much there; Wilson won a majority of 4 seats (falling to 2) in 1964 and then went again in 1966 because they were well ahead in the polls (using a defeat on steel nationalisation as the trigger); and then as you said in 1970 where Labour's much-diminished majority was lost straight to the Tories.

What is different with the others is that one side involves a very small majority - although the experience of the 2010s probably makes majorities of around 4 or 5 seem normal considering we had similar levels or hung parliaments the entire decade.

[TheTide]

(In what remains, interestingly, the only time one majority has been replaced by another majority at an election. Attlee, Douglas-Home, Callaghan and Major all left in the minority; Wilson was re-elected with a minority then re-re-elected with a majority; Cameron had his coalition.)

...no? Attlee was elected in 1950 with a majority of 5 that shifted to 3 after a by-election (they went thinking that they might get a more workable majority in 1951; Labour set an all-time record for number of votes cast for a party that stood until 1992 but the Tories got a small majority); in 1959 the Tories were elected with a majority of 100 that fell to about 90 due to by-election losses and a defection but which was still very much there; Wilson won a majority of 4 seats (falling to 2) in 1964 and then went again in 1966 because they were well ahead in the polls (using a defeat on steel nationalisation as the trigger); and then as you said in 1970 where Labour's much-diminished majority was lost straight to the Tories.

What is different with the others is that one side involves a very small majority - although the experience of the 2010s probably makes majorities of around 4 or 5 seem normal considering we had similar levels or hung parliaments the entire decade.

Also, post-WWII wasn't specified. It of course happened various times prior to then.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Does Corbyn stand a chance at holding Islington North? He’s likely running and Labour are of course going to run their own candidate. wouldn’t make a difference in the overall election, but still could be funny to see a gray blob in London.

[Coldstream]

Does Corbyn stand a chance at holding Islington North? He’s likely running and Labour are of course going to run their own candidate. wouldn’t make a difference in the overall election, but still could be funny to see a gray blob in London.

He’s got a better chance than Claudia Webbe.