United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[TheTide]

Seeing multiple tweets such as this from prominent journos. Shipman has or had good inside sources when it comes to the Tory Party (he wrote the quintessential 'inside story' book on the Brexit campaign for example) so maybe slightly less salt need applying than usual.

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1793215724011327507

https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1793214743236206837

https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1793217385198944578

[TheTide]

July is now odds-on on Betfair, ftr.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.223758498

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Constantly leaking different dates for a snap election to desperately try to confuse the opposition is a very Australian tactic btw.

[TheTide]

Hmm...

https://twitter.com/AlexDaviesJones/status/1793227483967340581

[Cassius]

Can’t wait for it to be another pointless “game-changer” reshuffle bringing back Lord Clarke as Secretary of State for Health.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1793233076010504426

Of course, today is also Sunak's weekly meeting with Brian.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/larisamlbrown/status/1793246283043389495


Per Politico's Eleni Courea, David Cameron has also had to fly back early to attend cabinet.

[TheTide]

If you are not planning to do something, then you probably should categorically state that you aren't planning to do it to Swinford (one of the leading scoop journalists around) when he asks you.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1793252984609996953

[Coldstream]

Whatever happens it’s been handled with classic Sunak incompetence.

Though the one card they have left to play is causing uncertainty for Labour, so I can see a benefit to pretending to call an election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, we can actually rule out a snap election because one cannot have a snap election at this stage of a Parliament. The election is now due.

[TheTide]

Other tidbits and rumours: Hunt standing down, Sunak himself standing down, Number 10 SPADs meeting at 2.

[Torrain]

If he's calling a July election, it does kinda need to happen today. There's parliamentary business to wrap up before an election, and you'd expect Mordaunt to announce the Whitsun recess is being cancelled (to deal with that stuff) at Business Questions tomorrow - which would need to happen *after* Sunak's announcement.

Some talk that the new borrowing numbers, and the BofE's recent decisions, have removed much of the headroom Hunt was going to burn on tax cuts. So between the lack of a pre-election giveaway budget, and the likelihood of a summer of record small boat crossings, maybe they've decided this is the least-worst moment to go?

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/ITVJoel/status/1793255148212330618

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't know how anyone can look at the mess in the UK right now and think that fixed terms are somehow a bad thing for meh "political culture" reasons or whatever.

I'm not sure that the lack of fixed terms has much at all to do with it. On the other hand, they were arguably a detriment when we did have them, particularly in 2019.

It is notable that the period in which FTPA was in operation was also the period in which we had not one but two snap elections and these were our very first since the 1970s. FTPA just meant that the actual process of triggering the election was messier. Pointless.

[TheTide]

Reading between the lines he's got reliable inside sources telling him that it's on? In any case it's now up to the level of perhaps the most well-known political broadcast journalist. Don't think the previous rounds of speculation went above newspaper editors etc, if that.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1793255310670323739

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is very Sunak that the speculation and chatter has become increasingly wild and unrestrained, something that is never actually very helpful as it sets people on edge and damages trust inside your own camp. It isn't hard to quietly direct speculation in a particular direction.

[TheTide]

It is very Sunak that the speculation and chatter has become increasingly wild and unrestrained, something that is never actually very helpful as it sets people on edge and damages trust inside your own camp. It isn't hard to quietly direct speculation in a particular direction.

There were similar situations during the late period of Boris Johnson's premiership regarding Sunak and his future in the cabinet.

[Coldstream]

If he is going to call an election, it’s clear he’s not consulted widely within the Tory Party. So he’d be starting the campaign having pointlessly irritated his own side.

Which, sure, sounds like something Sunak would do. But…this would be an appallingly bad example of party management even from him.

[TheTide]

Possibly the silliest piece of speculation I've seen is that it's Royal-related. This wasn't at all how it played out in e.g. September 2022 or even earlier this year with the cancer announcements.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/1793267586999701607?s=46&t=i-UD2LZovA...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Brian or Kate were seriously ill...

Well they are. Though you mean a progression in the bad sense. The tendency on their illnesses has been to drop an announcement around about teatime without obvious prior briefing (i.e. there will have been, but on condition of no hints), at least so far.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1793269179287564784

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anything other than an election meeting of some kind would be baffling given the (heh) three-line whip on cabinet attendance, but the lack of any careful, quiet direction of speculation means that we're just left with another question: what kind of election meeting? It could be to tell everyone in person that a date has been decided and that imminent dissolution will follow with an election in the Summer. It could be to formally decide as a cabinet on a date. It could be to sound out the intentions of every member of the cabinet in order to sort out replacements (not every PM likes having cabinet ministers in post during an election who are stepping down at it). It could be all three, and it could relate to other aspects as well. It's odd behaviour.

[TheTide]

One thing that is virtually certain is that, whether it is incredibly important or incredibly benign, there will be a lectern out later.

[Torrain]

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/letters-to-political-party-leaders-and-parliamentary-candidates-about-upholding-standards-of-conduct-ahead-of-the-forthcoming-general-election

Letters to political party leaders and parliamentary candidates about upholding standards of conduct ahead of the forthcoming general election

The Chair has written to political party leaders and parliamentary candidates in the forthcoming general election about the importance of upholding standards of conduct during elections.

From:Committee on Standards in Public Life
Published 22 May 2024

What a day to publish this, if it *is* a coincidence.