United Kingdom General Election 2024 : (Date to be confirmed)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Warning fanfic incoming:

Unlikely election scenario: tories wiped out in the may local, street and houchen defeated etc. Sunak is blamed and suffers a VONC. The conservative factions have a stitch-up to ensure Moudaunt is PM, with Badenoch, Braverman and Jenrick all rewarded enough to ensure the right are calling shots (Liz Truss is not given a place with the other wingnuts, obviously). The ultimate hail mary is that Reform is also rewarded in this, because Tories have come to fear them and believe that at least they could defang them - Tice and Farage are both given peerages and act as surrogates . This does kill Reform, but apparently is too toxic for some Tory voters, leading to a mini Lib Dems bounce. Moudaunt and her new cabinet immediately call for a summer election, as it's not likely they can do anything else.

[Dan the Roman]

Differing opinions on election date in the media today

Times: Sunak tempted to go for broke with summer election
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunak-tempted-to-go-for-broke-with-a-summer-election-fzkdnx5j3

FT: Hunt to cut 2p of NI in Autumn Statement (suggesting October 17)
https://www.ft.com/content/4972e747-1297-4f81-8162-0b4d0d68c9af

Metro: With nothing left to lose either way, Sunak might call it as early as June.
https://metro.co.uk/2024/04/20/rishi-sunak-has-nothing-left-lose-may-hold-election-early-june-20685077/

Simply a rehash of previous rather substance free rumours.

People at the Treasury - including Hunt himself - are still telling people what might be an an autumn financial statement, so either they are totally out of the loop or (perhaps more likely) this is just more gossip from bored and easily distracted hacks.

Why should he call an election six months early if he KNOWS (with as much certainty as one can have about these things) that his party is going to be not just beaten but annihilated? Yes, things *might* get even worse (somehow) if he delays, but on the other hand the "horse might talk". If you really do have "nothing to lose" it still makes more sense to hang on hoping for some miracle.

The only good reason is if he has a job lined up he wants to take. There really isn't a good argument for rushing doom because at this point things are so bad even right-wingers will want to delay handing control of office to Labour.

[CumbrianLefty]

Warning fanfic incoming:

Unlikely election scenario: tories wiped out in the may local, street and houchen defeated etc. Sunak is blamed and suffers a VONC. The conservative factions have a stitch-up to ensure Moudaunt is PM, with Badenoch, Braverman and Jenrick all rewarded enough to ensure the right are calling shots (Liz Truss is not given a place with the other wingnuts, obviously). The ultimate hail mary is that Reform is also rewarded in this, because Tories have come to fear them and believe that at least they could defang them - Tice and Farage are both given peerages and act as surrogates . This does kill Reform, but apparently is too toxic for some Tory voters, leading to a mini Lib Dems bounce. Moudaunt and her new cabinet immediately call for a summer election, as it's not likely they can do anything else.

Well, you said it was fanfic

Sunak can likely buy off at least some rebels with the promise that once these now almost mythical planes to Rwanda finallly take off, electoral base metal will magically be converted into gold

(in other words, not terribly convinced after this week that he loses a VONC even if it happens)

 

[JimJamUK]

I find it hard to believe that the Labour vote is down from the last election in Wales, and I’m not exactly convinced that Reform would get the same vote as the Tories if an election was held today either…

https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1783163993567150556?s=61&t=I1DE8_c...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It has been apparent for some time that they should desist with the Welsh polling as they really have no clue at all what they're doing.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The marks on the chart are both blatant editorialising and fail to make any sense on that basis.

[DL]

I find it hard to believe that the Labour vote is down from the last election in Wales, and I’m not exactly convinced that Reform would get the same vote as the Tories if an election was held today either…

https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1783163993567150556?s=61&t=I1DE8_c...

They are down from the last poll not down from the 2019 election.

[CumbrianLefty]

No, 40% would actually be a (small) fall for Labour from their 2019 GE showing.

The same poll also shows not just Labour slightly improving its Senedd position (both in the direct and list votes) but Gething's personal rating markedly up on their previous survey.

Please make it make sense

[DL]

No, 40% would actually be a (small) fall for Labour from their 2019 GE showing.

The same poll also shows not just Labour slightly improving its Senedd position (both in the direct and list votes) but Gething's personal rating markedly up on their previous survey.

Please make it make sense

What was the popular vote in Wales in the 2019 election?

[DistingFlyer]

No, 40% would actually be a (small) fall for Labour from their 2019 GE showing.

The same poll also shows not just Labour slightly improving its Senedd position (both in the direct and list votes) but Gething's personal rating markedly up on their previous survey.

Please make it make sense

What was the popular vote in Wales in the 2019 election?

Labour on 40.9%, Tories on 36.1%.

[DL]

Needless to say if this poll were right and Labour were to win Wales by 22 points compared to winning it by 5 points in 2019 - they would still probably win almost every single seat the Tories currently hold in Wales.

[YL]

The YouGov poll released today had a secondary question where people were asked to choose one of the following:

A: "I would like to see the Conservative party win the next general election"
B: "I would like to see the Conservative party lose the next general election, but win again in the future with a better leader or better policies"
C: "I would like the Conservative party to remain as the main right-wing party in Britain, but I would rather they did not win another election"
D: "I would like the Conservative party to disappear completely, and some other party become the main right-wing party in Britain"

Overall figures D 22%, C 21%, A 14%, B 11%, none of these 18%, don't know 15%
2019 Tories (insert caveat about YouGov subsamples here): A 33% (!), B 21%, D 13%, C 7%, none of these 12%, don't know 14%

Of course D begs all sorts of questions about what this "some other party" might be.

Amusing if not to be taken very seriously.

[CumbrianLefty]

Bizarre flurry of speculation yesterday that Sunak is going to announce a GE this coming Monday.

*Probably* not true is now the consensus, but keep your ears peeled just in case I suppose

[Oryxslayer]

Bizarre flurry of speculation yesterday that Sunak is going to announce a GE this coming Monday.

*Probably* not true is now the consensus, but keep your ears peeled just in case I suppose

I saw those rumors flying about, the Tories themselves had to deny them. The question we really need to ask is if there are benefits to going right now rather than keep holding. Surprisingly, in my estimation, there are some. But maybe not enough...

1) The single biggest reason would be if Sunak does not expect to survive the locals. Massive councilor losses seemed already priced in at HQ, but losing people like Street who have run away from the national brand may be too much. If this is the case, the question is not now or later, but now or under someone else.

2) We have always assumed the Rwanda scheme would be a failure that Labour would end, but this week perhaps revealed just how much of a failure in the public eye if allowed to get going. Maybe strike when things are still a little rose-tinted in the eyes of the base.

3) Put the SNP in a very difficult spot. The Tories are not going to be the SNP's main rival this cycle, but they are still ideologically the Conservative & Unionist Party.

4) Reform. If we are looking at any eventual election from the Conservative perspective as just saving furniture, then they need to convince voters that Reform isn't viable. It is very likely that Reform do awful at the local elections, since they have little local organization. That is exploitable. But that message can only really be exploited if people are paying attention, it will get lost if people only care about the big numbers on top of the night.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It all seems a little silly. We're only talking of gaining or losing a few months now...

[Torrain]

With Oryx on this (but I was always of the view that May would be less risky than the autumn).

Would just add:

• The sooner they go, the less boat crossings (and therefore the less ammunition for Reform).
• Going before flights to Rwanda actually start means they get to avoid the inevitable admin issues with flights, arrivals, reprisals, protests, while still claiming to have delivered the policy.
• They might also get to run the election before Rayner's given the all-clear, which won't make *too* much difference, but will appeal to those who think the reporting of Dan Hodges leaves Labour with sleaze issues comparable to their own.

All that said - I still think they'll wait for the autumn, in the hope that the economy will be better, and the tax cuts have "bedded-in".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Food price inflation, however, may have started to rise again by then due to the wiping out of fodder crops in Britain and across Europe in this wretched excuse for a Spring.

[YL]

I think the argument for going long is more a hope that something will happen rather than anything specific.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think the argument for going long is more a hope that something will happen rather than anything specific.

Yes, "something might turn up" is always a powerful motivator. However bleak the chances of this.

Sunak refusing to explicitly rule out an earlier (I think we can stop saying "early" at this stage) poll in this morning's interview, but many think this is more about trying to keep his errant MPs in line.

[WD]

How much does it really matter in the end? Either they lose 200+ MPs next month, sometime in the summer, or in the fall.

[Oryxslayer]

How much does it really matter in the end? Either they lose 200+ MPs next month, sometime in the summer, or in the fall.

The question is about if they can get away with losing less, and avoiding losing more. Beyond the fantasy of winning, holding 200 would be a very good result given the past year of polling,  and if the Tories see a path there they will pounce. Similarly,  if waiting to the last possible date will potentially put them in a sub-100 situation,  then it's better to go sooner. If neither are possibilities...then keep waiting.

[LabourJersey]

If Sunak calls for an election this week, would it be on June 6 or June 13? Unclear on the timeline.

[Duke of York]

why call a general election with local elections days away?

[Oryxslayer]

why call a general election with local elections days away?

As explained by me and others above, if the call were to come before the locals, it would preempt and prevent action in response to the disastrous Tory result. The most serious of these potential actions is the toppling of Sunak, but there's plenty more possibilities. That would be a justification if the call actually happens of course.

[Duke of York]

why call a general election with local elections days away?

As explained by me and others above, if the call were to come before the locals, it would preempt and prevent action in response to the disastrous Tory result. The most serious of these potential actions is the toppling of Sunak, but there's plenty more possibilities. That would be a justification if the call actually happens of course.

could it help them in the locals?