United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[afleitch]

The Postwar norm was that a standard parliament should be four years with the fifth year as a 'reserve'.

Speaking of, today is the 50th anniversary of the February 1974 election.

[Mike88]

The Postwar norm was that a standard parliament should be four years with the fifth year as a 'reserve'.

Speaking of, today is the 50th anniversary of the February 1974 election.

The famous "Who Governs Britain?" election. And which voters responded, "Not you, Ted."

[CumbrianLefty]

The Postwar norm was that a standard parliament should be four years with the fifth year as a 'reserve'.

Speaking of, today is the 50th anniversary of the February 1974 election.

Worth recalling that was a genuine "snap" election, with the parliament having barely done three and a half years when Heath called it. Polls had turned in the Tories favour as 1973 had progressed and he decided to try and take advantage. By contrast, most Labour people were deeply depressed and not only expected to lose but feared they faced an extensive spell in the wilderness (arguably they got that right, but were just a bit out with the timing) One of the few who believed they had a real chance was Wilson himself - who thought his sparring partner might have misjudged things from the off.

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1763255954479468658

Fun fact.

Age polarisation is so insane it's estimated that nearly 1 in 10 2019 Tory voters have now died.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Would love to meet some Labour 2019/Tory 2024 voters. Who even are they? Accelerationists? Mark Latham imitators? Idiots? Leicester East?

[Torrain]

Can only imagine the macrabre conversations the age polarisation issue has triggered in party HQs about the date of the election!

On a related note, I do wonder where key Labour figures are on the election date. Obviously, they have to publicly call for an election "as soon as possible" for rhetorical reasons. But I wonder whether some are hoping the Tories go long:

• Gives the economy more time to recovery.
• Potentially compounds the age polarisation issue.
• Entrenches the narrative about Sunak running scared from the electorate. 
• Gives the government backbenches time to lose their minds and try to coup Sunak, further entrenching opinions about the Tory psychodrama.
• Shortens the time between Labour taking office and the 2026 elections in Cardiff and Edinburgh, making it more likely they take place during the 'honeymoon' period.

Of course, going long also means the Tories also get a little credit for any economic recovery, and we get 10 months of Galloway trying to widen splits over Gaza...

[CumbrianLefty]

The likelihood is the Gaza conflict will be over by the autumn, though (as an intensive war anyway)

So maybe swings and roundabouts there, whilst it will surely still be a live issue in May.

[JimJamUK]

Would love to meet some Labour 2019/Tory 2024 voters. Who even are they? Accelerationists? Mark Latham imitators? Idiots? Leicester East?

In no particular order:
People rushing through the poll clicking anything
People who genuinely changed their political views eg; culture wars, radicalised by COVID etc
Ethnic minorities (mainly Hindus) who liked Corbyn and/or like Sunak
Random people with extremely weird/niche/non-existent political views eg; I somehow know a 2019 Corbyn voter who literally voted for Trump for fear Biden would be a Trojan horse for Venezuelan socialism.

[adma]

Fun fact.

Age polarisation is so insane it's estimated that nearly 1 in 10 2019 Tory voters have now died.

And, who knows how many of those were Labour/Leave "Red Wall" types.

[CumbrianLefty]

Would love to meet some Labour 2019/Tory 2024 voters. Who even are they? Accelerationists? Mark Latham imitators? Idiots? Leicester East?

There are certainly a few of these very vocal on social media.

[DavidB.]

Would love to meet some Labour 2019/Tory 2024 voters. Who even are they? Accelerationists? Mark Latham imitators? Idiots? Leicester East?

Someone who was an apolitical 22-year old student in 2019 (probably opposed to Brexit) and is now an apolitical 27-year old consultant making decent money (while Brexit is irrelevant). Many such cases.

[IceAgeComing]

I mean based on the opinion polls there's unlikely to be that many cases like that - according to the Yougov big aggregation of their polls (31 October-17 January - 14k sample so probably better than individual subsamples but not perfect) you had the Tories at 9% for 18-24 year olds, and 10% for 25-29 year olds - indeed in both they are in fourth place behind Labour, the Greens and the Lib Dems. Indeed according to this the Tories don't break 20% until 50-59 year olds. There's another similar poll that had similar conclusions (actually remember the Tories being behind Reform in younger voters on that one - so not good at all).

I assume its a combo of Weird People, people not answering honestly and dodgy recall more than anything else.

[Germany1994]

Just in case someone´s interested, here´s an interesting tool:

https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/build-a-voter

Here you can explore 905 520 different subgroups defined by eight demographic characteristics and see you likely they´re voting for a certain party compared to 2019.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remember though, and it is very important that people from countries where better data exists are aware of this, all demographic data on GB elections is pretty sketchy and a lot of it is actively bad.

[Germany1994]

Remember though, and it is very important that people from countries where better data exists are aware of this, all demographic data on GB elections is pretty sketchy and a lot of it is actively bad.

I know that and while I agree you should take data like this with a huuuge grain of salt it´s still pretty interesting.

[YL]

Remember though, and it is very important that people from countries where better data exists are aware of this, all demographic data on GB elections is pretty sketchy and a lot of it is actively bad.

I know that and while I agree you should take data like this with a huuuge grain of salt it´s still pretty interesting.

It's interesting, but unfortunately having played with it a bit I don't find it credible. Region seems to change too much, as does the "urban"/"suburban" distinction. (Which one is an area two miles from the centre of a city full of semi detached houses?) And it comes up with Reform UK on 12% for my demographics, which I find very hard to believe.

[Germany1994]

Remember though, and it is very important that people from countries where better data exists are aware of this, all demographic data on GB elections is pretty sketchy and a lot of it is actively bad.

I know that and while I agree you should take data like this with a huuuge grain of salt it´s still pretty interesting.

It's interesting, but unfortunately having played with it a bit I don't find it credible. Region seems to change too much, as does the "urban"/"suburban" distinction. (Which one is an area two miles from the centre of a city full of semi detached houses?) And it comes up with Reform UK on 12% for my demographics, which I find very hard to believe.

If I understood the tool correctly it doesn´t say that Reform will get 12 % of this demographic but it will vote for the party by a likelyhood of 12 %.

[YL]

Usual caveats apply, but we have a constituency poll of Godalming & Ash (Jeremy Hunt's new seat) by Survation for 38 Degrees:

Lib Dem 35% (+1)
Con 29% (-24)
Lab 23% (+15)
Reform UK 8% (+8)
Green 3% (+1)
(changes from 2019 notional)

I imagine bar charts are being made out of this already.

[Pericles]

Usual caveats apply, but we have a constituency poll of Godalming & Ash (Jeremy Hunt's new seat) by Survation for 38 Degrees:

Lib Dem 35% (+1)
Con 29% (-24)
Lab 23% (+15)
Reform UK 8% (+8)
Green 3% (+1)
(changes from 2019 notional)

I imagine bar charts are being made out of this already.

Isn't it speculated that Hunt wil retire to avoid this kind of result, any news on that?

[DavidB.]

One big question mark - which I haven't seen much discussion about - is the extent to which unhappy 2019 Conservative voters who now claim to be voting for Reform will, in the end, 'come home' for the Tories when they start looking at their own constituency more than at the national picture.

In the past, this sort of thing has worked out rather well for the Conservatives. Perhaps this time it won't because the election doesn't seem particularly competitive at this point, and perhaps many of these Reform/Tory swing voters are concentrated in Northern seats that will go Labour anyway this time, but it's a matter to watch.

If I were a voter in the UK, I can imagine I'd currently be enraged with the Tories' record in government (particularly its most recent iterations) and if a pollster were to call me today I'd certainly not say I'd vote for them. But chances are that if my seat would be even semi-marginal, Reform wouldn't stand a chance there, and my Tory MP or candidate would be decent, I'd end up voting Conservative anyway, despite everything.

[JimJamUK]

Usual caveats apply, but we have a constituency poll of Godalming & Ash (Jeremy Hunt's new seat) by Survation for 38 Degrees:

Lib Dem 35% (+1)
Con 29% (-24)
Lab 23% (+15)
Reform UK 8% (+8)
Green 3% (+1)
(changes from 2019 notional)

True, but it’s honestly kinda believable?

The Lib Dem vote looks about right (the loss of the Labour votes they squeeze come the GE being balanced out by this being the sort of place where a lot of Tories will actually be moving direct to them), the generic Labour vote being half what they get nationally is fairly realistic, and the Tory collapse, exactly what the national polls would suggest.

[Coldstream]

One big question mark - which I haven't seen much discussion about - is the extent to which unhappy 2019 Conservative voters who now claim to be voting for Reform will, in the end, 'come home' for the Tories when they start looking at their own constituency more than at the national picture.

In the past, this sort of thing has worked out rather well for the Conservatives. Perhaps this time it won't because the election doesn't seem particularly competitive at this point, and perhaps many of these Reform/Tory swing voters are concentrated in Northern seats that will go Labour anyway this time, but it's a matter to watch.

If I were a voter in the UK, I can imagine I'd currently be enraged with the Tories' record in government (particularly its most recent iterations) and if a pollster were to call me today I'd certainly not say I'd vote for them. But chances are that if my seat would be even semi-marginal, Reform wouldn't stand a chance there, and my Tory MP or candidate would be decent, I'd end up voting Conservative anyway, despite everything.

In my experience, Tory-Reform switchers hate the Tories more than Labour now and aren’t afraid of a Starmer government. At least, they are less afraid than their desire to punish the Tories. This idea that they need to take a beating has really taken hold even amongst Tory voters and will be difficult to shift.

[TheTide]

Usual caveats apply, but we have a constituency poll of Godalming & Ash (Jeremy Hunt's new seat) by Survation for 38 Degrees:

Lib Dem 35% (+1)
Con 29% (-24)
Lab 23% (+15)
Reform UK 8% (+8)
Green 3% (+1)
(changes from 2019 notional)

True, but it’s honestly kinda believable?

The Lib Dem vote looks about right (the loss of the Labour votes they squeeze come the GE being balanced out by this being the sort of place where a lot of Tories will actually be moving direct to them), the generic Labour vote being half what they get nationally is fairly realistic, and the Tory collapse, exactly what the national polls would suggest.

It's the kind of seat where there will presumably be some kind of Lib Dem surge (on an almost purely tactical basis) when the campaign proper gets into gear.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1764585117249327228

[TheTide]

The funny thing is that speculation about a May election is flaring up again. Apparently some Tories are privately saying that things can only get worse (that wouldn't be a popular campaign song) if they go beyond May. Of course it will soon be known for certain whether there will be a May election or not.