United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[RBH]

okay, I found a 3rd constituency where the Workers Party candidate has "For Britain, For Gaza" on their description. Cities of London and Westminster. (To go along with Manchester Central and Rotherham)

also spotted the occasional "Local Conservatives" description, including on their withdrawn Rotherham candidate, which has to be the ultimate in "hey, we know our national brand is weak here, but what our our local brand?"

edit: Nottingham South is also using "For Britain For Gaza" for the Worker's Party description. I guess it's for the best that we don't get precinct results for these elections or else it would really improve parties abilities to target seats in the future.

edit2: add two Sheffield candidates to that list of WPGB candidates using the Gaza description (Sheffield Brightside/Hillsborough and Central) while the other 3 WPGB candidates in Sheffield constituencies just used the "Workers Party" description. Guess we'll never quite know how many Muslim voters voted for Caitlin Hardy over Abtisam Mohamed due to the I/P war hurting Labour performances.

[YL]

The Lib Dems have also missed a full slate by one: they have no candidate in Manchester Rusholme.

Sheffield Central has an Australian (partly) called Teal standing as an Independent, though she is a Green Party dissident.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This election is looking a lot like the Netherlands one. Farage just had his debate moment just like Wilders.

Reform will win it.

Welcome to the forum!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In yet a further sign that I need professional help, I had a dream last night about the UK election. The Workers Party won 5 seats and something called the "Crime Party" (which was, confusingly, anti-crime) won 2 seats south of London.

I would totally vote for the Crime Party!

I'd rather vote Dalek.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In yet a further sign that I need professional help, I had a dream last night about the UK election. The Workers Party won 5 seats and something called the "Crime Party" (which was, confusingly, anti-crime) won 2 seats south of London.

I would totally vote for the Crime Party!

I'd rather vote Dalek.

Where is Lord Buckethead running this year?

[Logical]

In yet a further sign that I need professional help, I had a dream last night about the UK election. The Workers Party won 5 seats and something called the "Crime Party" (which was, confusingly, anti-crime) won 2 seats south of London.

I would totally vote for the Crime Party!

I'd rather vote Dalek.

Where is Lord Buckethead running this year?

Lord Buckethead has retired but his spiritual successor, Count Binface, is running in Richmond and Northallerton.

[YL]

Some constituencies might behave oddly for various reasons. Some of the by-election seats could come under this heading, as could the Green targets, but here are some others (not intended as a full list!):

Ashfield (Con in 2019) This has two complications. One is the persistently popular Jason Zadrozny of the Ashfield Independents (actually once a Lib Dem) whose party does very well in local elections and unlike most localist groups has also done well in General Elections, in particular coming second in 2019. He isn't exactly free of controversy, though there has been little sign of this affecting the party's electoral performances. The other, of course, is that Lee Anderson is defending his seat as Reform UK following his defection. My guess is that the Tories may well fall to fourth, but that the anti-Labour vote will be split enough for Labour to take the seat.

Dewsbury & Batley (notionally Lab in 2019) A heavily redrawn and heavily (though not quite majority in the 2021 census) Muslim constituency in the Heavy Woollen District of West Yorkshire. Labour parachuted in a candidate very late, which feels like a bad idea, they have serious problems with their local party, and they are being challenged by a single "Gaza independent"; this must be in the top five or so possibilities if Labour are to actually lose any seats. (Of course some other heavily Muslim seats are seeing similar challenges.)

Exmouth & Exeter East (notionally Con in 2019) Here the oddity is more the last couple of elections than this one, but the question is how it will resolve. Independent candidate Claire Wright performed surprisingly strongly in the old East Devon seat with a clearly left of centre platform; she is not standing this time, so the question is what will happen to her vote. The Lib Dems have other fish to fry in the area, so Labour are the most likely challengers, and this seat might be a little easier for them to win than their notional share suggests. The Tory MP for East Devon elected in 2019 is contesting Honiton & Sidmouth rather than this seat.

Islington North (Lab in 2019) This is all about Corbyn: can he hold his own seat as an Independent? He is clearly getting noisy support, but that's not necessarily enough to win, and it's hard for an outsider to judge his chances. A fake "Jeremy Bernard Corbyn" tried to stand but was rejected.

Leicester East (Lab in 2019) There has been some speculation that this might be a chance for an against the trend Tory gain following their strong performances in local elections, but it's also complicated by the fact that both the outgoing MP Claudia Webbe (as an Independent) and her predecessor Keith Vaz (for the "One Leicester" party) are standing against Labour. Webbe is endorsed by the Workers Party and is going for the "Gaza" vote, so her vote may not be as low as your average disgraced MP standing as Independent. There are also three other Independents. I have very little idea what is going to happen here.

Rotherham (Lab in 2019) The lack of a Tory candidate will certainly cause some oddities, likely meaning unusually high shares for Reform UK, who would have some potential here anyway, and the Yorkshire Party. Labour really ought to be safe, though.

South West Norfolk (Con in 2019) Turnip v Lettuce! Liz Truss is being challenged here by genepool Tory Independent James Bagge, who appears to have a fair amount of support, and Truss is, well, a bit of an embarrassment to put it mildly. It's also just possible that Labour could come through the middle, though unless their voters actually believe this they may suffer from tactical voting for Bagge.

[JimJamUK]

Bizarrely, a couple of recent polls find the Labour vote in Wales actually increasing despite all that’s going on. Presumably down to unpopular policies getting further in the past along with the traditional squeeze on the PC vote.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In yet a further sign that I need professional help, I had a dream last night about the UK election. The Workers Party won 5 seats and something called the "Crime Party" (which was, confusingly, anti-crime) won 2 seats south of London.

I would totally vote for the Crime Party!

I'd rather vote Dalek.

Where is Lord Buckethead running this year?

Lord Buckethead has retired but his spiritual successor, Count Binface, is running in Richmond and Northallerton.

Presumably that's because the Prime Minister is also standing there?

[oldtimer]

And now, the end is near
And so I face the final curtain ...

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

[MillennialModerate]

Well, time to get this thing going.

I'm starting my expectations at the benchmark of approximately (so number are neater): 420 Labour, 140 Conservative, 50 Lib-Dem, 16 SNP, 3 Plaid, 3 Others including the Speaker, and 18 obviously from Northern Ireland. I have a rough list, but I would prefer not to go into seat-by-seat detail at this moment.  

People are forgetting how high of a climb this would be for Labour.  In the famous Blair Landslide they gained 146 seats. This prediction would be around that much. Plus for whatever reason right wing parties tend to fall in line and come around more than left wing parties who are overly concerned with “purity” … I happen to like Kier Starmer a lot. But the British public don’t - Labour should win this by default and it’ll be a good showing but polls tighten during a campaign we all know that and the inflation numbers are just enough to put the “but maybe” in the mind of disenchanted Tory voters - so  for sure a likely good night for Labour but the 400’s is unlikely and the poll of polls showing greater than the first Blair Landslide is taking it a little too far IMO.

So a rough idea of where I think this is going…

Labour                     360  (+155)
Conservative           210   (-134)
Liberal Democrat      35   (+20)
SNP                           25   (-18)

Updating my forecast….


Labour                     390  (+185)
Conservative           176   (-169)
Liberal Democrat     42   (+27)
SNP                           27   (-16)
Reform                        3   (+3)

I don’t think Nigel wins a seat, I think it’s just 3 random seats where the Tory vote collapses

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And now, the end is near
And so I face the final curtain ...

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

[Logical]

Let me be the first to make Führerbunker jokes.

[Cassius]

And now, the end is near
And so I face the final curtain ...

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

Ironically Howard was actually rather Sunak-like, but somehow was able to parlay that into being Australia’s second longest serving PM. No such luck for Sunak here.

[afleitch]

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/rishi-sunak-d-day-snub-define-election-3098104

“We have targeted our entire campaign at pensioners,” complained one backbencher who had, until this week, thought he might hold on to his seat. “We have scared them that Labour will steal their pensions and announced that bloody stupid national service policy. Then we piss off the group that has the strongest emotional connection to D-Day.”

---

Good to get confirmation 😁

[brucejoel99]

Meow.

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1799189236744163459

Lest we forget that the Tories are only even existentially imploding right now because Piers Morgan calling Farage a wimp to his face on live TV 9 days ago goaded him into standing.

[Torrain]

The Reform candidate in Gavin Williamson's seat has defected to the Tories and withdrawn from the race. Possibly saved the seat for Sir Gav if national swing hit it as hard some models suggest.

[Progressive Pessimist]

And now, the end is near
And so I face the final curtain ...

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1799350801514528924

I wonder if things could possibly have been worse if Truss was still leader.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bizarrely, a couple of recent polls find the Labour vote in Wales actually increasing despite all that’s going on. Presumably down to unpopular policies getting further in the past along with the traditional squeeze on the PC vote.

There's also a tendency amongst a lot of the GE electorate to regard all devolved drama as 'that bloody mess down at the Bay' and to mentally keep it there.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1799432789080830173

[Compuzled_One]

Meow.

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1799189236744163459

Lest we forget that the Tories are only even existentially imploding right now because Piers Morgan calling Farage a wimp to his face on live TV 9 days ago goaded him into standing.

I think it was the Trump conviction that caused Farage to stand.

Anyway, seems all those 1993 Canada Predictions might come true on some level then, given the panic at the HQ and the newest dumb decision by Sunak to cancel interviews.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Reform candidate in Gavin Williamson's seat has defected to the Tories and withdrawn from the race. Possibly saved the seat for Sir Gav if national swing hit it as hard some models suggest.

Did they get the spider treatment by Gav, do you think?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Reform candidate in Gavin Williamson's seat has defected to the Tories and withdrawn from the race. Possibly saved the seat for Sir Gav if national swing hit it as hard some models suggest.

Did they get the spider treatment by Gav, do you think?

Bribery has always been a key element in Conservative whipping approaches.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, if he's resorting to that kind of nonsense, then that's a pretty sure sign that things are horrible for the party in white-flighty commuter territory.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1799432789080830173

Ah, so the Sunak campaign strategy is to *only* conduct interviews when there is a significant chance they will backfire spectacularly and offend as many voters as possible.