United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Compuzled_One]

Survation CEO just posted a picture of an asteroid impact in regards to the poll dropping in 50 mins.

The most I expect is another 19:17 Tory/Reform ratio, but I doubt even that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Survation's last conventional poll and its more recent MRP both had Con 24%, in case there's need of context.

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1798751741057409248
Okay, this definitely could've been worse, and the poll "only" had a thousand people polled, but that Reform gain is insane. Now, I genuinely do think they might pass the Tories in the PV, and I'm definitely feeling the Tories will end up in third place seat wise to the LDs at least.

[oldtimer]

Two things I am curious about

1.) What happens in the Scottish SNP/Tory seats where both parties vote shares are plummeting? They are already relatively unique seats (all on the East Coast, strong links to oil & gas, relatively rural) Some of the MRP polling has been terrible for Scotland so its hard to know

2.) What happens in Sunak's seat? This is iirc the first time that a Prime Minister or even Conservative leader has had their own seat projected to be relatively close

The scottish Tories has been usually the opposite of those in England and Wales.
Boris vs Ruth Davidson for example.
It also impacts Labour and the LD to an extent too.

Popular Scottish politicians are hated in England, and popular English ones hated in Scotland.

It's a cultural difference, scottish Calvinist culture in short.

On Sunak's seat I've long held my estimate that he's going to lose it for a variety of reasons, chiefly being : " Oh my God, he's our MP? NOOOO "

[afleitch]

Labour dropping back makes sense in part because the immediate post announcement gains and some gains since the locals in the polls came from older voters.

[oldtimer]

Labour dropping back makes sense in part because the immediate post announcement gains and some gains since the locals in the polls came from older voters.

Could be the debate damaged both Sunak and Starmer, but Starmer hurt more.

I thought their debate was a mess.

[Alcibiades]

Something obvious that I just explicitly clocked: there’s a real chance the Liberals could end up with at least as large a share of seats as of votes for the first time, seemingly, since 1906.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour dropping back makes sense in part because the immediate post announcement gains and some gains since the locals in the polls came from older voters.

High forties would probably be beyond what is plausible in a General Election without a very strong national squeeze in any case. And we have our first election of that (normal) type since 2015.

[oldtimer]

Average of the first 4 post-debate polls:

LAB 42.5
CON 22.5
REF 15.5
LD 10
GRN 5.5

Average change:

LAB -2
CON -2
REF +4.5
LD 0
GRN +0.5

Still a Labour Majority of over 300.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sunak cut short his appearance at the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of D-Day to campaign??!?!?

[oldtimer]

Sunak cut short his appearance at the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of D-Day to campaign??!?!?

It was announced in the morning that he would skip.

Not going to do him any favours, as Farage and Starmer where both there and he wasn't.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour dropping back makes sense in part because the immediate post announcement gains and some gains since the locals in the polls came from older voters.

Could be the debate damaged both Sunak and Starmer, but Starmer hurt more.

I thought their debate was a mess.

Two other polls taken at around the same time as Survation and R&W (from Focaldata and BMG) show Labour little changed from previously - it may be more relevant that the first two had Labour on 47% previously, even the most feverishly optimistic Labourite finds it hard to imagine that on polling day.

R&W also had Starmer as the clear winner of Tuesday night's debate FWIW.

[Storr]

Sunak cut short his appearance at the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of D-Day to campaign??!?!?

It was announced in the morning that he would skip.

Not going to do him any favours, as Farage and Starmer where both there and he wasn't.

So Sunak wants to reintroduce national service, but skips the day of 80th anniversary commemoration of D-Day to campaign instead?

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak cut short his appearance at the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of D-Day to campaign??!?!?

It was announced in the morning that he would skip.

Not going to do him any favours, as Farage and Starmer where both there and he wasn't.

So Sunak wants to reintroduce national service, but skips the the 80th anniversary commemoration of D-Day to campaign instead?

Cue "he's just not very good at this stuff", for the 37,823rd time.

[Torrain]

Short of endorsing open borders, it's hard to think of a Tory gaffe more-tailor made for Farage to exploit. He literally went off on a whole tangent about how people weren't respecting D-Day in his leadership speech.

[Compuzled_One]

Sunak cut short his appearance at the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of D-Day to campaign??!?!?

I can't call it anything else besides massively inconsiderate.

Well, nothing else morally. Electorally, it's a bad call and might be what gets Farage over him come the next YouGov poll.

[oldtimer]

I know everyone keeps saying it, but how is it possible for someone to be so bad at politics on such a basic level?

Ahh it's very easy.

The most aloof terrible Greek PMs and politicians never used their hands to work a single day.

So I guess all you need to do is skip manual work.

There's the thousands of years old stereotype of the idiot leader vs wise servants who do all the work.

[kyc0705]

I know everyone keeps saying it, but how is it possible for someone to be so bad at politics on such a basic level?

Ahh it's very easy.

The most aloof terrible Greek PMs and politicians never used their hands to work a single day.

So I guess all you need to do is skip manual work.

There's the thousands of years old stereotype of the idiot leader vs wise servants who do all the work.

It honestly feels like Sunak is going beyond just normal levels of incompetence. The Tory campaign is vaguely starting to feel like bizarre performance art.

[oldtimer]

I know everyone keeps saying it, but how is it possible for someone to be so bad at politics on such a basic level?

Ahh it's very easy.

The most aloof terrible Greek PMs and politicians never used their hands to work a single day.

So I guess all you need to do is skip manual work.

There's the thousands of years old stereotype of the idiot leader vs wise servants who do all the work.

It honestly feels like Sunak is going beyond just normal levels of incompetence. The Tory campaign is vaguely starting to feel like bizarre performance art.

Now it starts ?
April 25th 2023:

[TheTide]

Oh no...

https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1798787617485623397

[Joe Republic]

The Tories are now short yet another candidate at the last minute, in a seat they are hopelessly defending:

A Conservative candidate has withdrawn from the general election over "wholly inappropriate" comments he posted on a website.

Sam Trask, who was standing in Bridgend, made sexually crude posts about women to the myfitnesspal website, according to The Mirror.

[Tintrlvr]

The nomination deadline is tomorrow, right? Anyone have updates on how many Tory, LD, Reform and Green candidates are missing? Are the SNP or Plaid missing any candidates? I know Labour has a full slate nominated.

[Joe Republic]

The nomination deadline is tomorrow, right? Anyone have updates on how many Tory, LD, Reform and Green candidates are missing? Are the SNP or Plaid missing any candidates? I know Labour has a full slate nominated.

How many candidates do the parties still need?

We don't know, exactly. There's no official list until close of nominations, and some parties are better than others at telling us about selections. However:

- Labour have a full slate (excluding Chorley and NI).
- The English and Welsh Greens have 7 constituencies with a "TBC" on their list. At least some of these previously had a named candidate. I don't think the Scottish Greens normally have a full slate.
- The Conservatives don't have a centralised list that I know of, but have 545 candidates listed on Owain Sutton's spreadsheet, so appear to be short by about 86. (The spreadsheet doesn't include NI, and they won't stand in Chorley, so the target is 631.) But it's possible that some candidates have in fact been selected and they just haven't told anyone.
- The Lib Dems have 559 candidates on Owain Sutton's spreadsheet, short by 72. I think there are a few selected candidates not on this list.
- Reform UK have 476 candidates on Owain Sutton's spreadsheet, so have some way to go. They do have a webpage with candidate information, but it is rather annoying to use.

[Storr]

Sunak cut short his appearance at the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of D-Day to campaign??!?!?

It was announced in the morning that he would skip.

Not going to do him any favours, as Farage and Starmer where both there and he wasn't.

I'm imagining Zelensky asking Starmer "Where's Rishi?"

[MABA 2020]

Sunak cut short his appearance at the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of D-Day to campaign??!?!?

It was announced in the morning that he would skip.

Not going to do him any favours, as Farage and Starmer where both there and he wasn't.

Starmer again looking more prime ministerial