2022 Michigan CNN RV Poll: Whitmer+14 (55-41); 2024 Michigan CNN RV Poll: Trump+10 (50-40)

[IndianAmericanRepublican]

I would've never expected to see such a poll today!

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I would believe Trump +4 or so today. I think that polls in the Midwest and West largely stay the same for the next year, while Trump gains in the Midwest and South if and when these regions also slip into recession.

[oldtimer]

I would believe Trump +4 or so today. I think that polls in the Midwest and West largely stay the same for the next year, while Trump gains in the Midwest and South if and when these regions also slip into recession.

If Biden is losing the Mid-West in the opinion polls by that much during an economic boom, I don't want to know what the numbers would look like in an economic recession.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I would believe Trump +4 or so today. I think that polls in the Midwest and West largely stay the same for the next year, while Trump gains in the Midwest and South if and when these regions also slip into recession.

If Biden is losing the Mid-West in the opinion polls by that much during an economic boom, I don't want to know what the numbers would look like in an economic recession.

The Midwest and West are already losing jobs looking at BLS reports breakdown by region. Only the Northeast and South are booming. This possibly explains why Biden is doing very well in the Northeast.

[Birdish]

A poll released two weeks before an election vs a poll released 11 months before an election. Doesn't seem like an apt comparison. I'd also note that the LV Screen had Whitmer up +6 in that October CNN poll.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not sure what this thread is supposed to convey, but there's not much reason to compare a poll 11 months out from the election from one that I believe was literally in Sept/Oct of election year.

(The LV in that poll was also much lower IIRC)

[Randy Marsh]

These numbers are bonkers. Even a 2020 level miss in Biden's direction wouldn't come close to swinging the election if it were held today.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's wrong Trump will never win MI by 10 and Bush W on Oct 15th, 2004 had a 4 pt lead on Kerry and lost warnings there are poll biases in PA, WI, MI, NV and AZ

Epic MRA Bush W leads Kerry and Edwards 51/47 and Kerry Edwards down 9 RV in WI and 6 pts among LV polling biases don't take every poll literally

I haven't moved my Pred and neither has Atlas we may change the percentage but overall it's still a 303 map

S and Govs FL, TX, MO, OH, AZ, MT and MEB are wave insurance

I remember that flub I said mom Bush W is gonna win MI she said don't take polls literally

[IndianAmericanRepublican]

I'm not sure what this thread is supposed to convey, but there's not much reason to compare a poll 11 months out from the election from one that I believe was literally in Sept/Oct of election year.

(The LV in that poll was also much lower IIRC)

in reply to you and Birdish: this is why I included "if the election were today" as a qualifier

[MT Treasurer]

These numbers are bonkers. Even a 2020 level miss in Biden's direction wouldn't come close to swinging the election if it were held today.

Is it just me or does it seem like even Atlas has been getting a lot more Republican this year?

Something’s going on, and it could be big..

[Birdish]

These numbers are bonkers. Even a 2020 level miss in Biden's direction wouldn't come close to swinging the election if it were held today.

Is it just me or does it seem like even Atlas has been getting a lot more Republican this year?

Something’s going on, and it could be big..

If you were a dem leaning user and saw the current discourse on the forum, would you be more or less likely to post? That goes for the current lurkers signing up too.

Morale is low if your a Biden supporter. I doubt that translates into actual results since we're so far out, but it could be a microcosm of the national environment as we actually get into election season.

[Randy Marsh]

These numbers are bonkers. Even a 2020 level miss in Biden's direction wouldn't come close to swinging the election if it were held today.

Is it just me or does it seem like even Atlas has been getting a lot more Republican this year?

Something’s going on, and it could be big..

Not just you, 100% something big is going on. All of my leftist friends (who loved Obama) hate Biden and some people I thought never in a million years would vote Trump are saying they're open to it this time

[Progressive Pessimist]

You can't really compare polls 11 months from an election to those a few weeks before an election.

At this point in 2021 Craig was polling competitively against Whitmer. He didn't even end up nominated.

[IndianAmericanRepublican]

You can't really compare polls 11 months from an election to those a few weeks before an election.

At this point in 2021 Craig was polling competitively against Whitmer. He didn't even end up nominated.

Indeed, this is why I added the qualifier "if the election was today." With that being said, two registered voter polls of the same state from the same pollster is a much more appropriate Apples-To-Apples comparison than using 2022 or 2023 results.

[SN2903]

These numbers are bonkers. Even a 2020 level miss in Biden's direction wouldn't come close to swinging the election if it were held today.

Is it just me or does it seem like even Atlas has been getting a lot more Republican this year?

Something’s going on, and it could be big..

It's dissatisfaction with the political elite. Although Trump is a flawed messenger he stands to reap a huge political benefit from this.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Something generally smells really off with these polls; this poll requires too many people who voted not only for Whitmer but straight ticket Dem in 2022 to suddenly flip to Trump. I can def buy there will be a notable handful of Whitmer - Trump voters, but not this many, and I also don't buy voters who didn't vote in 2022 break for Trump by over a 2-1 margin.

[Alben Barkley]

Something generally smells really off with these polls; this poll requires too many people who voted not only for Whitmer but straight ticket Dem in 2022 to suddenly flip to Trump. I can def buy there will be a notable handful of Whitmer - Trump voters, but not this many, and I also don't buy voters who didn't vote in 2022 break for Trump by over a 2-1 margin.

I can buy it. It used to be that Republicans were the higher propensity voters (mainly college educated whites) who showed up in the midterms, but now that has reversed. So it seems midterms and off-year elections now favor Democrats, while presidential elections (especially with Trump on the ballot) favor Republicans.

[IndianAmericanRepublican]

Something generally smells really off with these polls; this poll requires too many people who voted not only for Whitmer but straight ticket Dem in 2022 to suddenly flip to Trump. I can def buy there will be a notable handful of Whitmer - Trump voters, but not this many, and I also don't buy voters who didn't vote in 2022 break for Trump by over a 2-1 margin.

I can buy it. It used to be that Republicans were the higher propensity voters (mainly college educated whites) who showed up in the midterms, but now that has reversed. So it seems midterms and off-year elections now favor Democrats, while presidential elections (especially with Trump on the ballot) favor Republicans.

It should be noted that in the NE-01 special election in June 28, 2022, Republicans did a good bit worse (with lower turnout in the special) than they did on November 8, 2022 (with higher turnout in the general).

It also should be noted that in that special election involving Pat Ryan and Marc Molinaro, Republicans did better in the same district boundaries in the general (better with the higher turnout on Nov 8 2022 than in the lower turnout in Aug 23 2022)

Same thing was true in 2018 and 2020. For instance, take a look at the PA-18 special results in 2018 vs the higher turnout general results. Take a look at AZ-08 special 2018 vs AZ-08 general 2018.

There are some exceptions such as GA-06 special summer 2017 vs general Nov 2018. But usually higher turnout has benefited R's.

Oh and if I recall correctly, Mike Garcia in CA-25 (previous district lines) actually did a bit worse on Nov 2020 than he did in the special earlier in that year, but many were saying he was a goner in the general because of the higher turnout and he ended up outperforming expectations!

[cherry mandarin]

There are some exceptions, such as GA-06 special during the summer of 2017, compared to the general that took place in November 2018.

I'd mostly chalk  that result  up to  persuasion, a more favourable  national environment  for  the Democratic Party  in 2018, their  superior  GOTV machine, and  a poorer the lack of  national attention  being placed  on  that race.

I can buy it. It used to be that Republicans were the higher-propensity voters (mainly college-educated whites) who showed up in the midterms, but now that has reversed. So it seems midterms and off-year elections now favor Democrats, while presidential elections (especially with Trump on the ballot) favor Republicans.

Great analysis; 100% agreed.

[Devils30]

There are some exceptions, such as GA-06 special during the summer of 2017, compared to the general that took place in November 2018.

I'd mostly chalk  that result  up to  persuasion, a more favourable  national environment  for  the Democratic Party  in 2018, their  superior  GOTV machine, and  a poorer the lack of  national attention  being placed  on  that race.

I can buy it. It used to be that Republicans were the higher-propensity voters (mainly college-educated whites) who showed up in the midterms, but now that has reversed. So it seems midterms and off-year elections now favor Democrats, while presidential elections (especially with Trump on the ballot) favor Republicans.

Great analysis; 100% agreed.

The GA-6 2017 special was a lot like the PA-12 special in 2010. Last hurrah for a party before its brand went completely into the dumps in their respective district.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are major problems with this poll it's a poll not votes as I tell Redban it's not even time to vote yet anyways

This is as useless as AZ Trump plus 10

All Ds and most Indies have Biden winning MI, PA and WI on their compiled map because it's 300 days what happened to Oz winning the polls had him beating Fetterman

I even have ALLRED, Kunce winning because Ds always overperform polls  Emerson has Cameron plus 1 and Beshear won by 5

[SnowLabrador]

I would believe Trump +4 or so today. I think that polls in the Midwest and West largely stay the same for the next year, while Trump gains in the Midwest and South if and when these regions also slip into recession.

If Biden is losing the Mid-West in the opinion polls by that much during an economic boom, I don't want to know what the numbers would look like in an economic recession.

That's because voters think we are in a recession. Biden's doing a pretty bad job of selling himself to the public.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would believe Trump +4 or so today. I think that polls in the Midwest and West largely stay the same for the next year, while Trump gains in the Midwest and South if and when these regions also slip into recession.

If Biden is losing the Mid-West in the opinion polls by that much during an economic boom, I don't want to know what the numbers would look like in an economic recession.

That's because voters think we are in a recession. Biden's doing a pretty bad job of selling himself to the public.

Lol do you really believe Biden is down by 10 in MI no he isnt the AZ plus 10 poll was contradicted by a tied vote

Haven't you seen enough polls that there R leaning and D Leaning CNN SRS is R Lean