When will the 2024 high for djia occur? (user search)
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  Economics (Moderator: Torie)
  When will the 2024 high for djia occur? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: 300 day poll
#1
January - March
 
#2
April - June
 
#3
July - September
 
#4
October - December
 
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Total Voters: 11

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Author Topic: When will the 2024 high for djia occur?  (Read 2432 times)
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,333


« on: December 07, 2023, 06:01:15 PM »

It would be quite surprising if the DJIA fails to reach 40,000 next year, which I could only see happening if the US enters a recession (not currently forecast by most economists), and the stock market is quite undervalued relative to fundamentals at the moment because investors have been pricing in a recession for the last ~15 months. Reminder that hitting 40,000 is only about an 11% gain from right now.

I vote for the last option because the market tends to go up over time so it would be unusual for the calendar year peak to be at any time but at the end of the year. I haven't looked back at statistics but I would guess at least 50% of calendar year peaks and possibly much higher have been in Q4.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,333


« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2024, 09:07:40 AM »

I am not sure if the stock market is open tomorrow, although it isn't a holiday so I think it will.

Anyway, a new djia high today, and I expect it to inch closer to 40000 either or tomorrow or April.

I plan to retire at the end of 2024, so I am watching it (and the other two) every day.

The market is closed on Good Friday.
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