NY-03 Special Election Megathread

[dspNY]

Suozzi outperforming Biden 2020 is impressive

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1757602226699137047?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4t...

[Devils30]

To add a fine point, once again: all of the major publications and pundits made SUCH a big deal over the last week(s) about how the race was a tossup, neck and neck, immigration had "dominated" it, etc. only to once again have eggs on their faces.

They continue to literally just make up their own narratives at this point, and funny how it's constantly "dems in disarray"

I still want to see the final margin before saying too much. But it does seem like a lot of the undecided vote lately has been Dem leaning. Sure enough, the Trump share in polls pretty closely reflects his 2020 numbers. I expect the presidential race to converge on the 2020 outcome despite Biden's problems.

[Atlas Force]

It’s official according to Wikipedia:

[Nyvin]

Since Suozzi won, the narrative of this is that special elections don't matter at all and changes nothing for November.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

While better than Trump winning, I'm actually a bit scared what would happen if all the polls show Trump winning or like a tied race, and Biden ends up winning big. I can't imagine it would go over well with the nutjobs in this country.

Biden won't win "big" in the sense of it being way bigger than 2020, but right now the baseline expected outcome should be that Biden will win fairly similarly to 2020 (maybe by a bit more, maybe by a bit less), but that polls will probably show Trump slightly ahead going into election day due to poor methodology and inability to reach a representative sample of voters. And the lower quality polls from Republican robopollsters and the like will have Trump ahead by even more.

You are right it will just lead them into more conspiracy theories. But that is nothing new, and is not really avoidable either. They also have a conspiracy theory for 2020 as well, of course.

[wbrocks67]

Guy on CNN mentions Siena poll about Trump beating Biden by 5 and no one mentioning that same poll had Suozzi only up by 4...

[Oryxslayer]

Since Suozzi won, the narrative of this is that special elections don't matter at all and changes nothing for November.

In regards to the above:

..Cause the immediate narrative is already set to be one of the three:

- "The result means little cause Suozzi has many of the advantages of incumbency, and is running to replace a notoriously awful representative who was one of the few ever expelled from the House. he honestly should have overperformed by more"

- "Democrats inability to match their previous vote share, despite numerous advantages signals significant problems going forward, even with a suburban electorate."

- "Suozzi's failure to win a Biden district last held by George santos of all people suggests that the 2022 New York coalition is still here. The Democrats are in serious trouble."

Which seems to suggest that the data people are expecting outcome 1.

All self-described Experts, innitiate Narrative One!

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1757602101662789951?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

[wbrocks67]

Also CNN oddly has not called this race yet. They're airing Pilip's concession speech before even calling it...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Congratulations , so much for Biden poor Approval

[Atlas Force]

To add a fine point, once again: all of the major publications and pundits made SUCH a big deal over the last week(s) about how the race was a tossup, neck and neck, immigration had "dominated" it, etc. only to once again have eggs on their faces.

They continue to literally just make up their own narratives at this point, and funny how it's constantly "dems in disarray"

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1757602497982558675

[ajc0918]

Also CNN oddly has not called this race yet. They're airing Pilip's concession speech before even calling it...

MSNBC and CNN want views. That's why.

[Malarkey Decider]

Assuming all of Nassau right now is EVote, I project a Suozzi win of about 7% when said and done (He'll lose the Nassau Evote by less than 10). If the reported vote is a combination of both, his total margin could very well approach 10%.

[Pres Mike]

Great news for November!

That said, how much did the snow impact things?

[Ferguson97]

Suozzi was Santos' immediate predecessor. Kinda funny that you could look at this as Suozzi going "okay, I'm back. Let's just agree to forget about that little weirdo from last year, okay?"

[Atlas Force]

Suozzi was Santos' immediate predecessor. Kinda funny that you could look at this as Suozzi going "okay, I'm back. Let's just agree to forget about that little weirdo from last year, okay?"

😂

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1757605579961303252?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tbLkn...

While this shouldn’t be notable, it’s encouraging that Pilip is conceding and not throwing a Trump-inspired tantrum about bogus voter fraud claims.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Great news for November!

That said, how much did the snow impact things?

Nah, it was mostly Santos.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Gillibrand on the ballot we are gonna sweep NY in H

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Can you imagine having a brain and voting for a Republican?

[roxas11]

so far, the biggest takeaway is that the immigration scare tactics did not work at all

that is bad news for the GOP because this election was taking place at a time when even the rest of the
so called mainstream media was also hyping up the immigration issue

in the end, immigration just was not the effective attack that the GOP Cleary thought it was going to be

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1757603121822339457

[dspNY]

Great news for November!

That said, how much did the snow impact things?

The snow stopped around 1-2 PM and it wasn't a huge amount by NY standards so not that much

[dspNY]

If this election tells me anything it's that the immigration issue isn't that important politically. NY-3 is ground zero for immigration fearmongering