2008 Presidential Predictions

[Harry Hayfield]

I would like to start making forecasts as well (but can't access it), could you link my forum account to the atlas please?

[Harry Hayfield]

I'd not put a space in my username!!!

[Harry Hayfield]

Republicans: My current score is 33 points (21 correct state projections and 12 % vote projections)
Democrats: My current score is 16 points (13 correct state projections and 3 % vote projections)

NBC projects Huckabee wins KS.

[Harry Hayfield]

You know, I'm going to miss these primary elections when they finish on Tuesday. This is the first full primary calendar I have seen from start to finish and kept a video record of  (Thanks Sky + and a DVD recorder) and I wonder what I am going to do for the next 24 Tuesdays until polling day!

By the way, when all the results are in, can we get a list of the positions of everyone who entered the prediction contest. I have a feeling I did better on the GOP nomination than the Dem.

[Harry Hayfield]

In terms of state wins at least 48 (I'd be suprised if anyone thought Indiana would flip). I can't remember whether I said Missouri or North Carolina would flip or not. If I did then at least 49 if not then still 49.

As to the percentage element, not a clue! I actually think the percentage element is more difficult and should be scrapped in favour of the strong, lean, tossup buttons. Strong would be a lead of more than 10%, lean between 5% and 10% and tossup less than 5% lead, with 1 point awarded for strong, 3 points for lean and 5 points for tossup.

[Harry Hayfield]

Having now found my projection, I can score mine:



State Wins: 47 out of 51 (wrong: IN, NC. MO, WV but got NE-2 right. Thanks NBC News)
% Wins:34 out of 51 (wrong: CA, ID, AZ, MT, NM, ND, NE, KS, MO, AR, IL, MI, DC, CT, RI, MA, VT)

Total Score: 81 out of 102 (5 congressional districts not counted)
% Score: 79.4%
% Score 2004: 79.5%
Change: -0.1%

(Any chance of a prize for least change since 2004???)