Francophone majority townships in Maine

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do any exist? If so, how do they vote and what was the swing from 2000? Something tells me Bush might've lost quite a bit of ground in such places for obvious reasons...

[Alcon]

You can pretty much tell by looking at a map of Aroostook County.

Overall, he gained in some, lost in others.  Overall, I think he lost.  But these areas are always hyper-Democratic.  What kind of voters would be be losing anyway?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Something tells me people with strong French heritage would probably be offended by the "freedom fries" nonsense or watching GOP activists stomp on French flags or pour French wine down the drain (a very stupid way to protest regardless, they have to buy the wine originally, which just gives more money to the French winemakers)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why would that have an impact on anything? Their ancestors would have only left France, what, fifty odd years after mine did?

[Alcon]

Something tells me people with strong French heritage would probably be offended by the "freedom fries" nonsense or watching GOP activists stomp on French flags or pour French wine down the drain (a very stupid way to protest regardless, they have to buy the wine originally, which just gives more money to the French winemakers)

I very much doubt anyone would seriously vote on that.  Also, what Al says is right.

Keep in mind that only like 25% of people in even the most French parts of Maine speak it primarily.  Most are just ancestrally French.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Northern New England had a huge pro-Democratic swing from 2000 to 2004.

[Alcon]

The French areas did - I just checked more - swung very much against Bush.  This was probably at least in part on the war.  I'm not sure how big of a role France-bashing played, but I doubt these areas would swing just on that alone.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Quebec is francophone but not france. Quebec is pretty much just a french speaking clone of New England.

[Alcon]

Quebec is francophone but not france. Quebec is pretty much just a french speaking clone of New England.

Um...what?

[RBH]

Well, the French Catholic sections of Louisiana did shift away from Kerry.

Granted, Kerry lost amongst Catholics, if you believe the exit polling.

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec is francophone but not france. Quebec is pretty much just a french speaking clone of New England.

Um...what?

I tend to agree. WTF?

One has to also remember, French Canadian does not equal France. It's like calling the US "British"

[minionofmidas]

Quebec is francophone but not france. Quebec is pretty much just a french speaking clone of New England.

Um...what?

Yeah, that's nonsense. New England is Quebec's appendix.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quebec is francophone but not france. Quebec is pretty much just a french speaking clone of New England.

Um...what?

Yeah, that's nonsense. New England is Quebec's appendix.

René Lévesque used to go on holiday in New England IIRC

[Central Lake]

Bump

[mileslunn]

I believe there was huge swing towards Trump in French speaking towns.  But wondering how big an impact language really has?  Its not like in Canada where French is an official language and thus strong expectation government will take an active role in ensuring its protection.  Even though people may still speak French with each other, most go to school in English, speak fluent English and probably get a lot of their TV in English too.  And so unlike on Canadian side, language issue maybe matters at local level in trying to preserve it but less federally as French speaking population in US not nearly large enough to warrant making it an official language like Canada.

As for ties to France, most left France in 1600 and 1700s so asides common language they have about as much ties with France as most English speaking Americans do with UK or Spanish speaking with Spain (which is very little).  If anything ties probably more with Canada as a lot of these communities are very closely tied with their Canadian neighbors and some even have relatives on both sides.  Lots are dual citizens since if no hospital in their town, they give birth on Canadian side or vice versa.  So if there is any influence on voting, its probably relationships with Canada not France.

That being said it seems a lot of the towns were Obama-Trump ones that voted for Obama both times but then Trump both times.  But when you consider demographics, largely whites without college degree not a total surprise.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I do think it's fair to say these places swung fairly hard to Kerry. Aroostook County, ME swung 4 points to Kerry, and the southern, Republican part probably saw a swing to Bush in line with similar places, or at least stayed put; meaning the northern Francophone parts swung fairly hard to Kerry.

But let's take a look at Berlin, NH near the border with Québec. According to Wikipedia two-thirds there speak some dialect of French and in 2000 63.4% had French or French-Canadian ancestry:
                                                     
1996    23.13%   61.21%
2000    38.01%   58.57% 
2004    35.75%   63.59% 

that makes a 7.28 point swing to Kerry.


As for the suggestions that Francophones would not have liked the atmosphere around Iraq and Chirac staying out, I do give this some credence. Even if you view yourself as simply American rather than Franco-American, it would be hard not to feel somewhat alienated as a French speaker, or indeed embarrassed to be one.

[Biden his time]

In 2013, there were eight townships in Maine where French-speaking households made up a majority (you'll have to download the spreadsheet to get at the data). Here they are listed in order from most to least French:

• Frenchville Town, Aroostook County - 67.4% French
• Hamlin Town, Aroostook County - 62.8% French
• Grand Isle Town, Aroostook County - 62.6% French
• Madawaska Town, Aroostook County - 61.8% French
• Dennistown Plantation, Somerset County - 59.3% French
• St. Agatha Town, Aroostook County - 56.6% French
• Van Buren Town, Aroostook County - 56.5% French
• Cyr Plantation, Aroostook County - 55.9% French

On a map:

Image Link

I took these towns, and based on a cursory look at maps on the Elections Atlas (I don't have membership so I can't get at the exact results unfortunately, especially for 2000 - 2008, where I'm just eyeballing the tiny maps), it looks like from 2000 - 2008, they stayed at 70 - 80% D approximately. In 2012, these townships collectively swung R approximately 10% to average at 70% D. In 2016, these townships (much like the rest of rural Maine) swung over 20% R and were a 50-50 even split, with the eastern group aligning with Clinton while the Western group was won by Trump. In 2020, they swung another 10% Republican putting them firmly in Republican hands.

Maybe someone can calculate the exact results if they do have membership? (I'm not willing to download any excel sheets from the Maine SoS, sorry)

[King of Kensington]

It wasn't the "France-bashing" but conflation of "speaking French" with elitism or un-Americanism by much of the GOP that probably hurt:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuzu6iS036Q

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It wasn't the "France-bashing" but conflation of "speaking French" with elitism or un-Americanism by much of the GOP that probably hurt:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuzu6iS036Q

there's also this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDq8bEjhs7Q&ab_channel=PeterKreutzer

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why did these people swing republican from 2016-2020 even while the rest of the region mostly snapped back blue ?

[Torie]

In 2013, there were eight townships in Maine where French-speaking households made up a majority (you'll have to download the spreadsheet to get at the data). Here they are listed in order from most to least French:

• Frenchville Town, Aroostook County - 67.4% French
• Hamlin Town, Aroostook County - 62.8% French
• Grand Isle Town, Aroostook County - 62.6% French
• Madawaska Town, Aroostook County - 61.8% French
• Dennistown Plantation, Somerset County - 59.3% French
• St. Agatha Town, Aroostook County - 56.6% French
• Van Buren Town, Aroostook County - 56.5% French
• Cyr Plantation, Aroostook County - 55.9% French

On a map:

Image Link

I took these towns, and based on a cursory look at maps on the Elections Atlas (I don't have membership so I can't get at the exact results unfortunately, especially for 2000 - 2008, where I'm just eyeballing the tiny maps), it looks like from 2000 - 2008, they stayed at 70 - 80% D approximately. In 2012, these townships collectively swung R approximately 10% to average at 70% D. In 2016, these townships (much like the rest of rural Maine) swung over 20% R and were a 50-50 even split, with the eastern group aligning with Clinton while the Western group was won by Trump. In 2020, they swung another 10% Republican putting them firmly in Republican hands.

Maybe someone can calculate the exact results if they do have membership? (I'm not willing to download any excel sheets from the Maine SoS, sorry)

[jimrtex]

Why did these people swing republican from 2016-2020 even while the rest of the region mostly snapped back blue ?

Secure borders? Just like the RGV.

[mileslunn]

Why did these people swing republican from 2016-2020 even while the rest of the region mostly snapped back blue ?

Secure borders? Just like the RGV.

Not sure that would matter as illegal immigration on northern border is not really an issue like it is on southern border.  I am thinking more education as disproportionately whites without a college degree and that group has swung heavily towards Trump.  Much of the swing in New England away from Trump was amongst whites with a college degree.