US with Canadian parties

[King of Kensington]

I could see the NDP doing well in Hawaii.

[Estrella]

yeah so basically it would be like this right ?

(Also I f-ed up with the arch diagram so the parties are in a bit of a nonsensical order, sorry about that...)

This doesn’t not make sense, but it looks like five different elections stitched together. Poilievre’s (presumably) coming Ontario landslide in the Midwest, an 80s Prairies PC win with a strong NDP and irrelevant Liberals in Appalachia, a 90s BC Reform sweep winning seats that were solid Lib/NDP before and since on the West Coast and a 60s/70s Quebec Liberal landslide in the South.

[King of Kensington]

I think Appalachia would have been more "Cape Breton Liberal" historically but moved to the right earlier given the rather different political cultures of the Southern US and the Canadian Maritimes.   

[mileslunn]

I could see the NDP doing well in Hawaii.

I doubt it but probably solidly Liberal as heavy Asian population who tend to be more centrist to slightly conservative.  Heck I could even see Harper or especially Ford winning there.  O'Toole probably would have lost there.  Someone like Notley or Kinew could probably win there, but Singh would be too left wing.

Singh I could only see winning in your ultra progressive cities so like Seattle, Portland, and San Francisco and maybe Boston depending on boundaries as would do well in areas near university, less so in middle class suburbs.

[King of Kensington]

I wonder about San Francisco.  It might be "too rich" to vote NDP.  East Bay seems more favorable to the NDP.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wonder about San Francisco.  It might be "too rich" to vote NDP.  East Bay seems more favorable to the NDP.

London Breed voters are obviously Liberals.

[mileslunn]

I wonder about San Francisco.  It might be "too rich" to vote NDP.  East Bay seems more favorable to the NDP.

Oakland and Berkeley area would definitely be NDP but inland and southern parts down towards Silicon Valley would probably be Liberal.  Eastern part too suburban for NDP while southern too affluent and diverse for NDP.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wonder about San Francisco.  It might be "too rich" to vote NDP.  East Bay seems more favorable to the NDP.

Oakland and Berkeley area would definitely be NDP but inland and southern parts down towards Silicon Valley would probably be Liberal.  Eastern part too suburban for NDP while southern too affluent and diverse for NDP.

True, no way is Livermore going to be voting NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

San Fran would lean Liberal. Feinstein, Newsom, Pelosi and Breed would all be Liberals.

The 2003 mayoral race would be a good Liberal vs NDP proxy battle, I think.

[mileslunn]

San Fran would lean Liberal. Feinstein, Newsom, Pelosi and Breed would all be Liberals.

The 2003 mayoral race would be a good Liberal vs NDP proxy battle, I think.

True enough.  I think Seattle and Portland though have had mayors that would fit in NDP.  One perhaps place might win, but not certain is Vermont as Bernie Sanders would definitely be an NDPer.  But Vermont also open to voting for Red Tories as governor is Republican but very moderate and even voted for Biden.  Phil Scott is sort of like Canada's version of Tim Houston or Dennis King who are both very popular in provinces that Tories federally have struggled in (yes I know doing well in polls now)

[King of Kensington]

Vermont and Southern Maine might indeed be the most open to voting Green (would have to be a good year for them with strong candidates to have a chance of winning them outright though).

[King of Kensington]

What would NYC look like?  I'm assuming it's pretty Liberal with Conservatives winning the Staten Island seat.  And AOC maybe being the lone NDPer.   In the suburbs, Westchester is very Liberal (after all GOP only gets 30% so enough for Liberals to win), Long Island around 45% GOP so mostly Conservative.  

[EastwoodS]

What would NYC look like?  I'm assuming it's pretty Liberal with Conservatives winning the Staten Island seat.  And AOC maybe being the lone NDPer.   In the suburbs, Westchester is very Liberal (after all GOP only gets 30% so enough for Liberals to win), Long Island around 45% GOP so mostly Conservative.  

Most of those suburbs aren't fiscally left wing. Remember the CPC would win over about 10% of Democratic support if switched with the LPC for the fact that they are a moderate conservatives party that is more palpable in the US.

[Hatman 🍁]

What would NYC look like?  I'm assuming it's pretty Liberal with Conservatives winning the Staten Island seat.  And AOC maybe being the lone NDPer.   In the suburbs, Westchester is very Liberal (after all GOP only gets 30% so enough for Liberals to win), Long Island around 45% GOP so mostly Conservative.  

The NDP would do very well in the Northern and Western parts of Brooklyn.

[Hatman 🍁]

Vermont and Southern Maine might indeed be the most open to voting Green (would have to be a good year for them with strong candidates to have a chance of winning them outright though).

I think the Greens best areas would be the northern coast of California.

[King of Kensington]

Most of those suburbs aren't fiscally left wing. Remember the CPC would win over about 10% of Democratic support if switched with the LPC for the fact that they are a moderate conservatives party that is more palpable in the US.

True but I think Westchester has enough liberal elites + low income minorities to be a Liberal stronghold.  The NDP wouldn't really enough of a factor to split the anti-Conservative vote.

[King of Kensington]

NYS politics with Canadian parties could be interesting too.  Assembly districts I believe are about the same population as a Canadian federal riding.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I’ve tried reading the Wikipedia article on Social Credit (as a theory), but could never quite understand it. What are the tenets of it? I think I remember something about being so anti-bank that they leaned towards anti-Semitism at times.

It was all absurdly complicated and based on voodoo economics nonsense, but the basic idea was that both recessions and inflation happen because workers’ pay is worth less than their labour (because of non-labor costs and profits) and the solution was to make money printer go brrr to make up the difference. The antisemitism was there mostly because it was the 1930s and C. H. Douglas was a right-wing fundie Christian.

[Kali Redcoat]

yeah so basically it would be like this right ?

(Also I f-ed up with the arch diagram so the parties are in a bit of a nonsensical order, sorry about that...)

This doesn’t not make sense, but it looks like five different elections stitched together. Poilievre’s (presumably) coming Ontario landslide in the Midwest, an 80s Prairies PC win with a strong NDP and irrelevant Liberals in Appalachia, a 90s BC Reform sweep winning seats that were solid Lib/NDP before and since on the West Coast and a 60s/70s Quebec Liberal landslide in the South.

I guess I should give some context. I used a multiple regression model in R which plugged in identical demographic characteristics measured in Canada and in the United States. I used the first dataset and the results from each riding in the 2021 federal elections to train the US model. Then I manually adjusted the results by different weights for each party I got until I found something that got the right vibes for me. Otherwise the NDP and Greens would have *zero* seats and the Tories would win something like 270 CDs in Congress. Of course people don't vote *purely* on demographic factors like whether they have a college education or if they have German ancestry but that's about the closest I could get short of political surveys (which only give you data on the national or statewide scale at best).

Though an obvious flaw in my model came when I ran it backwards for American elections in Canada and it assumed that Canada would be 2/3 Republican by riding. Obviously just because much of Canada has the demographics of Montana doesn't mean it'll vote like it will.

That being said, I think the fact that my map ended up looking like a mosaic of different elections means it was successful enough for me.

[King of Kensington]

What demographic variables are you using for "NDP vote"?

[S019]

Since people are posting their maps, I might as well post mine, I am prepared to defend most choices:

[Sol]

Since people are posting their maps, I might as well post mine, I am prepared to defend most choices:

I like this! I will say, I suspect a Southern Bloc would have basically no Black support, so I would shift NC-01.

[S019]

Since people are posting their maps, I might as well post mine, I am prepared to defend most choices:

I like this! I will say, I suspect a Southern Bloc would have basically no Black support, so I would shift NC-01.

Thanks

That one is an error, it's an oversight I entirely missed, I fixed a few errors earlier but forgot that one, it should be red, and yeah I agree the Southern Bloc has negligible black support.

[morgieb]

Since people are posting their maps, I might as well post mine, I am prepared to defend most choices:

Can't disagree with this too much. I think the Staten Island seat and possibly the Jersey seats vote Liberal though. Also my impression of the South is that the style of conservatism there has more in common with Reform than BQ, though I guess it's the least bad equivalent of BQ possible.

[Kali Redcoat]

What demographic variables are you using for "NDP vote"?

I don't recall all of them because I ran the model on a library computer, but for the NDP I know I used Bachelor's attainment, postgrad attainment, non-white populations, median income, indigenous populations, % identifying as Christian, and population density. Some of the results did not match my assumptions (there is apparently a negative correlation between a riding having a high non-indigenous non-white population and voting NDP, but I went with it anyways because apparently it was a very strong correlation.