ElectionBettingOdds: Trump now leads Biden by 10%

[SnowLabrador]

Trump is going to win, but betting markets aren’t good evidence for that position.

[Tekken_Guy]

Also, note that the current uselectionatlas median prediction has the GOP at 267 EC votes.  This is the highest level for any GOP candidate since and including 2004.  The us election atlas median prediction in 2004 was the GOP at 266 EC votes.  So in theory the implied uselectionatlas prediction of a GOP victory is the highest since and including 2004.

Arizona is only 8 predictions away from flipping and once it does, Trump takes the lead.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is going to win, but betting markets aren’t good evidence for that position.

We haven't voted yet you also got many of your pred wrong GA Sen 2020 Perdue and Loeffler wins

[🥥🌴]

Both Trump and Biden are undervalued.

The only way its not gonna be one of those two is:

- death
- trump being barred from running via courts (which i consider very unlikely)
- biden voluntarily giving up the nomination due to age or health concerns or being forced to withdraw by the DEM establishment (again, very unlikely. And trump isn't gonna voluntarily withdraw)

That's less than 20% chance for sure.

-> For Newsom to be at 10% ... this is even assuming he gets nominated if Biden withdraws. I suspect Harris is more likely to be nominated as basically being the heir as being de facto VP. And even than, it'd still be a competitive race behind the scenes. In reality, this is less than 1%.

Trump should be at 60%, Biden at 40%. Trump not higher, because a lot can happen in 9 months... If the election was tomorrow, it would be a different story. But it's in november.

58-38-4 would be a more realistic situation (4 just for "someone else")

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Both Trump and Biden are undervalued.

The only way its not gonna be one of those two is:

- death
- trump being barred from running via courts (which i consider very unlikely)
- biden voluntarily giving up the nomination due to age or health concerns or being forced to withdraw by the DEM establishment (again, very unlikely. And trump isn't gonna voluntarily withdraw)

That's less than 20% chance for sure.

-> For Newsom to be at 10% ... this is even assuming he gets nominated if Biden withdraws. I suspect Harris is more likely to be nominated as basically being the heir as being de facto VP. And even than, it'd still be a competitive race behind the scenes. In reality, this is less than 1%.

Trump should be at 60%, Biden at 40%. Trump not higher, because a lot can happen in 9 months... If the election was tomorrow, it would be a different story. But it's in november.

58-38-4 would be a more realistic situation (4 just for "someone else")

Lol the polls in QU Biden +6 contradicted the MC polls keep making those R nut maps, it's votes that count not polls we are getting ready the vote MI, WI and PA aren't Conserv States

[Skill and Chance]

FWIW if this does end up being Republican 2008, the Dem overperformance fighting to a draw in 2022 could end up being very significant by narrowly denying Republicans 60+ senators in 2025.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

FWIW if this does end up being Republican 2008, the Dem overperformance fighting to a draw in 2022 could end up being very significant by narrowly denying Republicans 60+ senators in 2025.

It would.

[Skill and Chance]

FWIW if this does end up being Republican 2008, the Dem overperformance fighting to a draw in 2022 could end up being very significant by narrowly denying Republicans 60+ senators in 2025.

It would.

I mean, just winning every state Trump won in 2016 in 2022 and 2024 would have given Republicans 59 seats.  They just need 1 solitary Clinton state seat in either year and they're passing the Trump New Deal in 2025.  On top of that, if they split the narrowest Clinton 2016 states (NH 2022, MN 2024, ME 2024, and both NV seats) 3/2, now they're even passing federal abortion laws with Collins and Murkowski voting no!

Because of 2022, the absolute R ceiling after 2024 (win all states that weren't double digits for Biden) is now 59.  And there's no way in heck Collins and Murkowski are voting to lower the filibuster threshold.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Lol the markers had Niners and Ravens beating the Chiefs Biden can still win

[Ferguson97]

Respectfully ,betting odds don't mean anything especially this early.

They never mean anything.

[jaichind]

After the SCOTUS ruling on CO ballot case.  it is

Trump   52.4
Biden    30.8

Which is about the same as when the Hur report came out.  Biden did recover a bit after some time after the Hur report came out but is now back down again

[BlueSwan]

After the SCOTUS ruling on CO ballot case.  it is

Trump   52.4
Biden    30.8

Which is about the same as when the Hur report came out.  Biden did recover a bit after some time after the Hur report came out but is now back down again

I’d still easily buy Trump at those odds. I have Trump as a 85% favourite at the moment.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Anyone who thinks the Trump ballot case did anything to affect these odds is an absolute square.
SCOTUS taking the Jan 6 immunity petition (and this delaying the case) is a completely different story.

Also, how can Michelle Obama have a 5% chance of winning the Presidency, but not even be an option to win the Dem nomination? On the other hand, Ron DeSantis is 7% to win the GOP nonination but not on the board to win the Presidency.

Maybe someday someone will create a political market with enough liquidity to actually be worth something as an information source.