HarrisX - Trump +7
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MR DARK BRANDON
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« on: November 21, 2023, 10:50:52 AM »

https://themessenger.com/politics/poll-trump-holds-seven-point-lead-over-biden-exclusive

Trump - 47
Biden - 40
Undecided - 13

Before ppl start jumping up and down, this has traditionally been one of trump/republicans best polls. This isnít the first time they showed numbers like this lol (I was actually wondering what would happen after Harvard/Harris once this inevitably dropped lol)
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2023, 10:54:03 AM »

Polls coming out lately are brutal. Some might be flawed and have questionable crosstabs, though just dismissing the whole picture would be a mistake. There's enough time to turn it around, sure. Still extremely worrisome.
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MR DARK BRANDON
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« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2023, 10:56:56 AM »

Polls coming out lately are brutal. Some might be flawed and have questionable crosstabs, though just dismissing the whole picture would be a mistake. There's enough time to turn it around, sure. Still extremely worrisome.

Maybe, but this has always been a good poll for trump/republicans. I donít think they ever had biden in a lead lol (I actually guessed a couple days ago it would show this exact margin)
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Biden caused Dobbs
riverwalk3
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« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2023, 10:58:50 AM »

Polls coming out lately are brutal. Some might be flawed and have questionable crosstabs, though just dismissing the whole picture would be a mistake. There's enough time to turn it around, sure. Still extremely worrisome.

Maybe, but this has always been a good poll for trump/republicans. I donít think they ever had biden in a lead lol (I actually guessed a couple days ago it would show this exact margin)
Their last poll was Trump +2. So it's still a 5 point movement towards Trump.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2023, 11:00:03 AM »

Polls coming out lately are brutal. Some might be flawed and have questionable crosstabs, though just dismissing the whole picture would be a mistake. There's enough time to turn it around, sure. Still extremely worrisome.

Maybe, but this has always been a good poll for trump/republicans. I donít think they ever had biden in a lead lol (I actually guessed a couple days ago it would show this exact margin)

It was one of Biden's better pollsters in 2020 as far as I remember though. Nonetheless, the picture as a whole is worrisome. Biden is down in almost all national polls right now and trailing in a majority of battlegrounds. I'm not saying he's DOA and fundamentals suggest he's better off than polls currently show, still we can't dismiss the fact Dems should alarmed.
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riverwalk3
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« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2023, 11:02:21 AM »

53-47 Trump with leaners.
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MR DARK BRANDON
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« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2023, 11:04:16 AM »

Polls coming out lately are brutal. Some might be flawed and have questionable crosstabs, though just dismissing the whole picture would be a mistake. There's enough time to turn it around, sure. Still extremely worrisome.

Maybe, but this has always been a good poll for trump/republicans. I donít think they ever had biden in a lead lol (I actually guessed a couple days ago it would show this exact margin)

It was one of Biden's better pollsters in 2020 as far as I remember though. Nonetheless, the picture as a whole is worrisome. Biden is down in almost all national polls right now and trailing in a majority of battlegrounds. I'm not saying he's DOA and fundamentals suggest he's better off than polls currently show, still we can't dismiss the fact Dems should alarmed.

Oh yeah of course. And this a new or unique thing they need to be alarmed about. just like the winning party had reason to be alarmed in 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, 2012 etc. itís part of how you win an election. still though, I would base predictions off of fundamentals rather than polls atp.
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Redban
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« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2023, 11:06:17 AM »

Outside of Rasmussen, we've received a consistent string of polls showing Trump ahead right now. I've never seen that in any election from 2008-now. I've seen Republicans lead briefly during a convention bounce or something. But I haven't seen this sort of solid lead for a Republican presidential candidate before
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2023, 11:21:33 AM »

Outside of Rasmussen, we've received a consistent string of polls showing Trump ahead right now. I've never seen that in any election from 2008-now. I've seen Republicans lead briefly during a convention bounce or something. But I haven't seen this sort of solid lead for a Republican presidential candidate before

Once Rasmussen ant TIPP are out of the average Trumpís lead could very well cross 2 points.
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Bartlet2002
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« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2023, 11:40:17 AM »

I don't think HarrisX and Harvard-Harris have ever shown Biden with a lead this cycle. If and when Biden retakes the lead nationally, I highly doubt either will show a lead then either.

I also find it questionable that RCP includes both in the average, but that goes the same for the multiple YouGov polls they include as well.  
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2023, 11:42:18 AM »

He's had long and successful career in politics. It's time to retire and end this charade before he gives us Trump 2.0
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Three-term Incumbent MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2023, 12:21:31 PM »

Outside of Rasmussen, we've received a consistent string of polls showing Trump ahead right now. I've never seen that in any election from 2008-now. I've seen Republicans lead briefly during a convention bounce or something. But I haven't seen this sort of solid lead for a Republican presidential candidate before

Worth noting that none of us have ó itís been nearly forty years since the last Republican landslide, and weíve long been due for one. The ingredients that were there in 1980 are there again (ideological transformation of the Republican party, Democratic division over whether to renominate the incumbent, catastrophic unpopularity of the incumbent who lacks a movement, inflation, generational tensions, yearning for a new style of leadership, foreign crises, incumbent's coalition coming apart, sense of America being less and less respected around the world and losing its special mission, etc.). The one exception is that Trump is no Reagan, but thatís about the only saving grace I can see for Biden right now.
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riverwalk3
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« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2023, 12:31:57 PM »

Trump's share on RCP now exceeds the share he got in 2020.
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Bartlet2002
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« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2023, 12:43:37 PM »

Outside of Rasmussen, we've received a consistent string of polls showing Trump ahead right now. I've never seen that in any election from 2008-now. I've seen Republicans lead briefly during a convention bounce or something. But I haven't seen this sort of solid lead for a Republican presidential candidate before

Worth noting that none of us have ó itís been nearly forty years since the last Republican landslide, and weíve long been due for one. The ingredients that were there in 1980 are there again (ideological transformation of the Republican party, Democratic division over whether to renominate the incumbent, catastrophic unpopularity of the incumbent who lacks a movement, inflation, generational tensions, yearning for a new style of leadership, foreign crises, incumbent's coalition coming apart, sense of America being less and less respected around the world and losing its special mission, etc.). The one exception is that Trump is no Reagan, but thatís about the only saving grace I can see for Biden right now.

Interesting you bring up 1980. While I can see the similarities, what little polling we have from 1979 had Carter winning re-election in a landslide.

Carter's problems seemed to pile up as the election entered the final stretch. Biden's problems are piling up while the election season has barely started.

I think it's being underestimated how much time Biden has to recover when comparing him to Carter.

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Octosteel
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« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2023, 12:45:46 PM »

Outside of Rasmussen, we've received a consistent string of polls showing Trump ahead right now. I've never seen that in any election from 2008-now. I've seen Republicans lead briefly during a convention bounce or something. But I haven't seen this sort of solid lead for a Republican presidential candidate before

Worth noting that none of us have ó itís been nearly forty years since the last Republican landslide, and weíve long been due for one. The ingredients that were there in 1980 are there again (ideological transformation of the Republican party, Democratic division over whether to renominate the incumbent, catastrophic unpopularity of the incumbent who lacks a movement, inflation, generational tensions, yearning for a new style of leadership, foreign crises, incumbent's coalition coming apart, sense of America being less and less respected around the world and losing its special mission, etc.). The one exception is that Trump is no Reagan, but thatís about the only saving grace I can see for Biden right now.

Interesting you bring up 1980. While I can see the similarities, what little polling we have from 1979 had Carter winning re-election in a landslide.

Carter's problems seemed to pile up as the election entered the final stretch. Biden's problems are piling up while the election season has barely started.

I think it's being underestimated how much time Biden has to recover when comparing him to Carter.



This is true. There's plenty of time to find the Fountain of Youth.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2023, 12:49:50 PM »

Outside of Rasmussen, we've received a consistent string of polls showing Trump ahead right now. I've never seen that in any election from 2008-now. I've seen Republicans lead briefly during a convention bounce or something. But I haven't seen this sort of solid lead for a Republican presidential candidate before

Worth noting that none of us have ó itís been nearly forty years since the last Republican landslide, and weíve long been due for one. The ingredients that were there in 1980 are there again (ideological transformation of the Republican party, Democratic division over whether to renominate the incumbent, catastrophic unpopularity of the incumbent who lacks a movement, inflation, generational tensions, yearning for a new style of leadership, foreign crises, incumbent's coalition coming apart, sense of America being less and less respected around the world and losing its special mission, etc.). The one exception is that Trump is no Reagan, but thatís about the only saving grace I can see for Biden right now.

Interesting you bring up 1980. While I can see the similarities, what little polling we have from 1979 had Carter winning re-election in a landslide.

Carter's problems seemed to pile up as the election entered the final stretch. Biden's problems are piling up while the election season has barely started.

I think it's being underestimated how much time Biden has to recover when comparing him to Carter.



This is true. There's plenty of time to find the Fountain of Youth.

Biden needs to project that he's not some feeble old man. He doesn't need to pretend that he's young.

Also Trump has plenty of time to implode.
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Redban
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« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2023, 12:51:48 PM »

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Bartlet2002
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« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2023, 12:58:22 PM »


Thank god its November 2023 and not November 2024.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: November 21, 2023, 01:03:40 PM »

Trump isn't leading by 7 and only 5 up in FL and we lost FL by 20 in 22 no way
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #19 on: November 21, 2023, 01:04:21 PM »


Once Rasmussen and TIPP leave the average, Trump will clear 3 points, unless a poll manages to find a Biden lead before then.
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Pericles
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« Reply #20 on: November 21, 2023, 01:13:33 PM »

Outside of Rasmussen, we've received a consistent string of polls showing Trump ahead right now. I've never seen that in any election from 2008-now. I've seen Republicans lead briefly during a convention bounce or something. But I haven't seen this sort of solid lead for a Republican presidential candidate before

Worth noting that none of us have ó itís been nearly forty years since the last Republican landslide, and weíve long been due for one. The ingredients that were there in 1980 are there again (ideological transformation of the Republican party, Democratic division over whether to renominate the incumbent, catastrophic unpopularity of the incumbent who lacks a movement, inflation, generational tensions, yearning for a new style of leadership, foreign crises, incumbent's coalition coming apart, sense of America being less and less respected around the world and losing its special mission, etc.). The one exception is that Trump is no Reagan, but thatís about the only saving grace I can see for Biden right now.

It's premature to predict what conditions will be like a year from now, but this also comes across as trying too hard to make the comparison fit. For example, inflation is at 3% and trending down, not the double digits in the 1980s, while there are wars going on in the world they are a lot different and less directly harming the US than the Iran crises in 1979-80, and Dean Phillips is no Ted Kennedy lol. 2024 is it's own election, there will be some lessons from the past but it's just dumb to think of it as a rerun of a previous election.
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« Reply #21 on: November 21, 2023, 01:22:03 PM »

Polls coming out lately are brutal. Some might be flawed and have questionable crosstabs, though just dismissing the whole picture would be a mistake. There's enough time to turn it around, sure. Still extremely worrisome.

Maybe, but this has always been a good poll for trump/republicans. I donít think they ever had biden in a lead lol (I actually guessed a couple days ago it would show this exact margin)

It was one of Biden's better pollsters in 2020 as far as I remember though. Nonetheless, the picture as a whole is worrisome. Biden is down in almost all national polls right now and trailing in a majority of battlegrounds. I'm not saying he's DOA and fundamentals suggest he's better off than polls currently show, still we can't dismiss the fact Dems should alarmed.

The fundamentals are not good for Biden at all which is why heís losing currently. The reason why heíd win is :

- Trump being convicted of Jan 6th turns voters who considered voting for him to back Biden again reluctantly

- Abortion being a major campaign issue

- Trump being far more unhinged then he was in 16/20


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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: November 21, 2023, 01:30:42 PM »

Polls coming out lately are brutal. Some might be flawed and have questionable crosstabs, though just dismissing the whole picture would be a mistake. There's enough time to turn it around, sure. Still extremely worrisome.

Maybe, but this has always been a good poll for trump/republicans. I donít think they ever had biden in a lead lol (I actually guessed a couple days ago it would show this exact margin)

It was one of Biden's better pollsters in 2020 as far as I remember though. Nonetheless, the picture as a whole is worrisome. Biden is down in almost all national polls right now and trailing in a majority of battlegrounds. I'm not saying he's DOA and fundamentals suggest he's better off than polls currently show, still we can't dismiss the fact Dems should alarmed.

The fundamentals are not good for Biden at all which is why heís losing currently. The reason why heíd win is :

- Trump being convicted of Jan 6th turns voters who considered voting for him to back Biden again reluctantly

- Abortion being a major campaign issue

- Trump being far more unhinged then he was in 16/20





Lol we a yr away from Eday of course you Rs believe this  poll but Trump is an indicted felon and you guys lost last Tues we aren't gonna lose blue states we are gonna lose red states Biden is landsliding Trump in IL, CA and NY and the base states, WA
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: November 21, 2023, 02:20:45 PM »

Trump isn't up 7 anyways, he won't win by 7 that's why this poll is Trash
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #24 on: November 21, 2023, 02:25:00 PM »

Outside of Rasmussen, we've received a consistent string of polls showing Trump ahead right now. I've never seen that in any election from 2008-now. I've seen Republicans lead briefly during a convention bounce or something. But I haven't seen this sort of solid lead for a Republican presidential candidate before

Worth noting that none of us have ó itís been nearly forty years since the last Republican landslide, and weíve long been due for one. The ingredients that were there in 1980 are there again (ideological transformation of the Republican party, Democratic division over whether to renominate the incumbent, catastrophic unpopularity of the incumbent who lacks a movement, inflation, generational tensions, yearning for a new style of leadership, foreign crises, incumbent's coalition coming apart, sense of America being less and less respected around the world and losing its special mission, etc.). The one exception is that Trump is no Reagan, but thatís about the only saving grace I can see for Biden right now.

Interesting you bring up 1980. While I can see the similarities, what little polling we have from 1979 had Carter winning re-election in a landslide.

Carter's problems seemed to pile up as the election entered the final stretch. Biden's problems are piling up while the election season has barely started.

I think it's being underestimated how much time Biden has to recover when comparing him to Carter.



This is true. There's plenty of time to find the Fountain of Youth.

Biden needs to project that he's not some feeble old man. He doesn't need to pretend that he's young.

Also Trump has plenty of time to implode.

Hard to do that when he IS a feeble old man. One who needs to step aside before itís too late, if itís not already.
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