What does the post-Trump GOP look like?
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  What does the post-Trump GOP look like?
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Author Topic: What does the post-Trump GOP look like?  (Read 313 times)
Alben Barkley
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« on: November 20, 2023, 08:30:01 PM »

One way or another -- whether this wild ride of a soap opera ends with its antihero protagonist in a prison cell, six feet under, losing once again, or winning and graciously serving out his term (LOL) -- eventually there will be a GOP without Donald Trump.

What does that look like? He's clearly irrevocably shaken the party to its core. Who will be his most likely successors? His children? Sycophants in Congress like Hawley? Or will the GOP actually change course and moderate, or at least try to gaslight us all into pretending they never supported Trump, much like they did after Bush's presidency ended in disaster?

What do you think is the most likely outcome?
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riverwalk3
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2023, 08:35:30 PM »

Democrats win with 400+ EVs in 2028 with House majorities larger than Obama. Idk how the GOP will change after that, but they probably will.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2023, 09:26:23 PM »

If he wins we'll get four years of him behaving like a wannabe tinpot dictator, stacking federal agencies with conservative activists and cronies, running his DOJ like Ken Paxton, being reckless with foreign policy, and possibly crashing the economy. See pre-10/7 Netanyahu. Expect the next four years to be a blue tsunami that makes his first term look like a ripple by comparison. He anoints his VP or one of his kids as his successor in 2028, who get blown out 2008-style.

If he loses, he'll spend the rest of his career ranting about how he was robbed again.
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Devils30
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2023, 09:28:30 PM »

Democrats win with 400+ EVs in 2028 with House majorities larger than Obama. Idk how the GOP will change after that, but they probably will.

Yeah for once we agree, its interesting but you can totally see how the loser of 2024 is really the long-term winner.

If Biden wins- GOP probably retakes House in 2026 midterm, Collins retains seat in Maine (if she runs), Dems have a hard time in NC, AK getting Cooper, Peltola in and Kemp can beat Ossoff in GA.

2028 Dems then have a major dilemma with Harris as frontrunner (not to mention a recession) and her campaign calling everyone who doesn't support her a racist. Despite being pro-Israel herself, the people she hires on her campaign will likely be garbage and cause problems on this issue judging by her history. Youngkin could easily beat Harris with 350+ electoral votes and a popular vote win. The center-right revives while the identity left crumbles. It begins a downward spiral where the Dems retreat to the AOC wing for the next decade.

If Trump wins- Dems very likely can get 240+ maybe even 250 in the House, especially if Trump tries using the FDA to ban mailing of abortion pills. In Senate, if 2024 GOP is only at 52-48 with WV/OH/MT, 2026 and 2028 could be downright ugly. GA is uncompetitive, Dems flip NC, AK with Cooper and Peltola and neither is particularly close. Texas also might fall in the unpopular Trump midterm scenario.

2028 is not much better for GOP, Dems hold all 2022 seats and gain at least NC, WI with FL/OH/IA in outer limits depending on how bad things get for GOP.

Dems might have one of Whitmer/Shapiro or Moore at the top of the ticket and GOP will be saddled with Trump's crony VP. A Democratic majority here would be able to accomplish a lot with 54+ Senate seats and the right would be discredited.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2023, 09:50:31 PM »

OK you all are talking about the political ramifications of either party winning in 2024 in terms of midterm results, etc. Assuming that we still have normal elections after a second Trump win.

That's great and all, but with my question I was more interested in what the character/make-up/direction of the GOP itself is after Trump. Who are his most likely successors? Will they continue Trump's direction or back off from it? Etc.
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riverwalk3
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« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2023, 09:54:54 PM »

OK you all are talking about the political ramifications of either party winning in 2024 in terms of midterm results, etc. Assuming that we still have normal elections after a second Trump win.

That's great and all, but with my question I was more interested in what the character/make-up/direction of the GOP itself is after Trump. Who are his most likely successors? Will they continue Trump's direction or back off from it? Etc.
The GOP and whoever Trump's VP is gets wiped out in 2028 and they will find a completely new direction.
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dw93
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« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2023, 12:17:33 AM »

Trump's positions on immigration and protectionism live on in the Republican party after he's gone. It also becomes even more pro Russia and less anti China as the Democrats become more hawkish.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2023, 12:24:54 AM »

Democrats win with 400+ EVs in 2028 with House majorities larger than Obama. Idk how the GOP will change after that, but they probably will.

Yeah for once we agree, its interesting but you can totally see how the loser of 2024 is really the long-term winner.

If Biden wins- GOP probably retakes House in 2026 midterm, Collins retains seat in Maine (if she runs), Dems have a hard time in NC, AK getting Cooper, Peltola in and Kemp can beat Ossoff in GA.

2028 Dems then have a major dilemma with Harris as frontrunner (not to mention a recession) and her campaign calling everyone who doesn't support her a racist. Despite being pro-Israel herself, the people she hires on her campaign will likely be garbage and cause problems on this issue judging by her history. Youngkin could easily beat Harris with 350+ electoral votes and a popular vote win. The center-right revives while the identity left crumbles. It begins a downward spiral where the Dems retreat to the AOC wing for the next decade.

If Trump wins- Dems very likely can get 240+ maybe even 250 in the House, especially if Trump tries using the FDA to ban mailing of abortion pills. In Senate, if 2024 GOP is only at 52-48 with WV/OH/MT, 2026 and 2028 could be downright ugly. GA is uncompetitive, Dems flip NC, AK with Cooper and Peltola and neither is particularly close. Texas also might fall in the unpopular Trump midterm scenario.

2028 is not much better for GOP, Dems hold all 2022 seats and gain at least NC, WI with FL/OH/IA in outer limits depending on how bad things get for GOP.

Dems might have one of Whitmer/Shapiro or Moore at the top of the ticket and GOP will be saddled with Trump's crony VP. A Democratic majority here would be able to accomplish a lot with 54+ Senate seats and the right would be discredited.

I highly doubt Cooper, Peltola, or Kemp run for Senate in 2026 if their partyís president wins in 2024. Iím skeptical any of the three run at all. Peltola will probably wait for Murkowski to retire, Kemp may want to run for president more, and Cooperís getting up there in age.
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Devils30
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« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2023, 11:58:28 AM »

Democrats win with 400+ EVs in 2028 with House majorities larger than Obama. Idk how the GOP will change after that, but they probably will.

Yeah for once we agree, its interesting but you can totally see how the loser of 2024 is really the long-term winner.

If Biden wins- GOP probably retakes House in 2026 midterm, Collins retains seat in Maine (if she runs), Dems have a hard time in NC, AK getting Cooper, Peltola in and Kemp can beat Ossoff in GA.

2028 Dems then have a major dilemma with Harris as frontrunner (not to mention a recession) and her campaign calling everyone who doesn't support her a racist. Despite being pro-Israel herself, the people she hires on her campaign will likely be garbage and cause problems on this issue judging by her history. Youngkin could easily beat Harris with 350+ electoral votes and a popular vote win. The center-right revives while the identity left crumbles. It begins a downward spiral where the Dems retreat to the AOC wing for the next decade.

If Trump wins- Dems very likely can get 240+ maybe even 250 in the House, especially if Trump tries using the FDA to ban mailing of abortion pills. In Senate, if 2024 GOP is only at 52-48 with WV/OH/MT, 2026 and 2028 could be downright ugly. GA is uncompetitive, Dems flip NC, AK with Cooper and Peltola and neither is particularly close. Texas also might fall in the unpopular Trump midterm scenario.

2028 is not much better for GOP, Dems hold all 2022 seats and gain at least NC, WI with FL/OH/IA in outer limits depending on how bad things get for GOP.

Dems might have one of Whitmer/Shapiro or Moore at the top of the ticket and GOP will be saddled with Trump's crony VP. A Democratic majority here would be able to accomplish a lot with 54+ Senate seats and the right would be discredited.

I highly doubt Cooper, Peltola, or Kemp run for Senate in 2026 if their partyís president wins in 2024. Iím skeptical any of the three run at all. Peltola will probably wait for Murkowski to retire, Kemp may want to run for president more, and Cooperís getting up there in age.

I could see Murkowski caucusing with the Dems if Trump is once again POTUS. Agree that Cooper, Peltola more likely to run in a Trump midterm and NC Dems might have Jeff Jackson as another strong option.

If Biden wins, Harris is going to be a major problem for them in 2028.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2023, 12:09:59 PM »

Democrats win with 400+ EVs in 2028 with House majorities larger than Obama. Idk how the GOP will change after that, but they probably will.

Yeah for once we agree, its interesting but you can totally see how the loser of 2024 is really the long-term winner.

If Biden wins- GOP probably retakes House in 2026 midterm, Collins retains seat in Maine (if she runs), Dems have a hard time in NC, AK getting Cooper, Peltola in and Kemp can beat Ossoff in GA.

2028 Dems then have a major dilemma with Harris as frontrunner (not to mention a recession) and her campaign calling everyone who doesn't support her a racist. Despite being pro-Israel herself, the people she hires on her campaign will likely be garbage and cause problems on this issue judging by her history. Youngkin could easily beat Harris with 350+ electoral votes and a popular vote win. The center-right revives while the identity left crumbles. It begins a downward spiral where the Dems retreat to the AOC wing for the next decade.

If Trump wins- Dems very likely can get 240+ maybe even 250 in the House, especially if Trump tries using the FDA to ban mailing of abortion pills. In Senate, if 2024 GOP is only at 52-48 with WV/OH/MT, 2026 and 2028 could be downright ugly. GA is uncompetitive, Dems flip NC, AK with Cooper and Peltola and neither is particularly close. Texas also might fall in the unpopular Trump midterm scenario.

2028 is not much better for GOP, Dems hold all 2022 seats and gain at least NC, WI with FL/OH/IA in outer limits depending on how bad things get for GOP.

Dems might have one of Whitmer/Shapiro or Moore at the top of the ticket and GOP will be saddled with Trump's crony VP. A Democratic majority here would be able to accomplish a lot with 54+ Senate seats and the right would be discredited.

I highly doubt Cooper, Peltola, or Kemp run for Senate in 2026 if their partyís president wins in 2024. Iím skeptical any of the three run at all. Peltola will probably wait for Murkowski to retire, Kemp may want to run for president more, and Cooperís getting up there in age.

I could see Murkowski caucusing with the Dems if Trump is once again POTUS. Agree that Cooper, Peltola more likely to run in a Trump midterm and NC Dems might have Jeff Jackson as another strong option.

If Biden wins, Harris is going to be a major problem for them in 2028.

Jackson is likely the guy for the Budd seat, not the Tillis one. Wiley Nickel is another option and I think he might be the big name to watch if Cooper passes on a run in Ď26.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2023, 05:10:37 PM »

If he wins we'll get four years of him behaving like a wannabe tinpot dictator, stacking federal agencies with conservative activists and cronies, running his DOJ like Ken Paxton, being reckless with foreign policy, and possibly crashing the economy. See pre-10/7 Netanyahu. Expect the next four years to be a blue tsunami that makes his first term look like a ripple by comparison. He anoints his VP or one of his kids as his successor in 2028, who get blown out 2008-style.

If he loses, he'll spend the rest of his career ranting about how he was robbed again.

How does this in any way answer what the "post-Trump GOP" looks like?
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wnwnwn
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« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2023, 05:46:06 PM »

MAGA with a more suburb friendly rethoric.
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Reactionary Libertarian
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« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2023, 12:26:22 PM »

Three potential futures for GOP. Iím assuming that Dobbs is the last hurrah of the Christian Right and they will have significantly less influence ten years from now:

1) Tories- suffer big losses at some point (TX flips) and really change. More focused on finance, range of views on social issues so right canít dominate. Pro free trade, legal immigration, internationalism. Would win big majorities. I donít think this will happen because the Right never, ever does this.

2) Nationalism- the rising right wing staffers and not so closeted white nationalists take over the party. Becomes more high-IQ and ideological, focusing on stopping all immigration. Very interested in purging the federal government, may be more left on fiscal issues. I think this is the direction the GOP is going in now, but I donít think it will work. Most white Republicans do not  support white nationalism, even if they may be vaguely uncomfortable with the US becoming majority-minority. Most GOP voters are not super ideological and fancy plans to purge the ďRegimeĒ come off as creepy.

3) Full Trumpism- GOP basically abandons policy and becomes fully about grievances. Embraces more conspiracy theories and becomes about masculinity as the Dems and the elite become more feminized. Think Andrew Tate but less extreme. Party is OK with abortion but wants men to be able to avoid child support. Pro-business but also anti big corporations. Does very well with white and Latino men with no college, decently well with black men (>20%). This seems to be the path of least resistance for the GOP. The 2 of traditional ď3 stoolsĒ of the GOP have been destroyed by Trump- the deficit hawks and the neocons- although Congress doesnít reflect that yet. After Dobbs destroys the last leg, the GOP can fully transition into being non-ideological.
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