Can Biden win without Michigan?
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  Can Biden win without Michigan?
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Question: Can Biden win without Michigan?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 65

Author Topic: Can Biden win without Michigan?  (Read 817 times)
Asenath Waite
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« on: November 20, 2023, 07:16:00 PM »

Kind of worried given his currently abysmal polling with Arab-Americans tbh.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2023, 07:19:14 PM »

Flip NC and hold AZ/GA and he can win without Wisconsin too.

Not like anyone of serious caliber believed Trump would win 2016 without Virginia or Colorado [the tipping point state] until he did.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2023, 07:22:06 PM »

If Slotkin is ahead by 2 Trump isn't ahead by 5 users take polls literally a yr before Eday

There are R biases in NV, NJ and MI because Bush W was not Maga and leading by 4 on Oct 15th 2004 and lost the state to Kerry, Devos was ahead of Granholm in 2006 and lost and Strategic Vision had Menendez behind Kean Jr in 2006 and Menendez won
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seskoog
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2023, 07:39:25 PM »

Realistically, no
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2023, 07:46:51 PM »

No. If he's lost Michigan he likely has lost both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well, which would be enough for Trump even if Biden sweeps AZ/GA/NV. And if Trump wins Michigan he's more likely than not sweeping AZ/GA/NV as well.
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DS0816
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« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2023, 08:45:01 PM »

Re: Can [U.S. president Joe] Biden win [re-election] without Michigan?

No.

Wisconsin. Pennsylvania. Michigan.

Two are Top 10 populous states. All three are the only states which were carried in the last four United States presidential elections of 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020.

They are the nationís leading bellwether states.

This Rust Belt trio will, for a fifth consecutive cycle, vote again for the winner [winning party] in the United States presidential election of 2024.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2023, 08:54:38 PM »

Bellwether are MI, WI and PA clearly it's a 303/111 map but if Brown wins Biden can surely win OH and he is 1 or ahead in NC
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2023, 09:54:23 PM »

Not likely but not impossible
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RilakkuMAGA
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« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2023, 02:43:37 AM »

In theory yes, but in practice, if he's losing Michigan, he's losing Wisconsin and Pennsylvania too, and he can't win if he loses all three of them.
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BigVic
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« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2023, 02:52:40 AM »

Hold PA/AZ/NV
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2023, 02:58:59 AM »

It's like Romney winning without Ohio or Florida. The math is there but the logic is not.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2023, 09:03:21 AM »

In theory, yes. In practice, no.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2023, 10:11:21 AM »

Mathematically, sure, though if he lost MI, it's almost a given he also lost PA and WI, and without any of the Rust Belt trio, he'll fall short of 270.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2023, 10:31:38 AM »

Mathematically, sure, though if he lost MI, it's almost a given he also lost PA and WI, and without any of the Rust Belt trio, he'll fall short of 270.

He doesn't need them if he holds AZ/GA and Nevada actually.

This is like how Trump was supposed to need Virginia and Colorado to win in 2016, with The Midwest merely as a secondary garnish at best. No path without Florida either.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2023, 10:38:24 AM »

Mathematically, sure, though if he lost MI, it's almost a given he also lost PA and WI, and without any of the Rust Belt trio, he'll fall short of 270.

He doesn't need them if he holds AZ/GA and Nevada actually.

This is like how Trump was supposed to need Virginia and Colorado to win in 2016, with The Midwest merely as a secondary garnish at best. No path without Florida either.

Actually he needs at least one. Biden holding AZ/GA/NV and Trump winning MI/PA/WI is a 279-259 Trump win.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2023, 10:39:44 AM »

MI is in the MOE of 5 pts that's not a safe R lead Decos was up 7 over Granholm and lost
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2023, 10:52:16 AM »

Mathematically, sure, though if he lost MI, it's almost a given he also lost PA and WI, and without any of the Rust Belt trio, he'll fall short of 270.

He doesn't need them if he holds AZ/GA and Nevada actually.

This is like how Trump was supposed to need Virginia and Colorado to win in 2016, with The Midwest merely as a secondary garnish at best. No path without Florida either.

Actually he needs at least one. Biden holding AZ/GA/NV and Trump winning MI/PA/WI is a 279-259 Trump win.

Yup, Biden would also need NC on top, by going through the Sunbelt Stack. That said, he's not going to win NC if he loses the Rust Belt trio entirely. Let alone talking FL or TX.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2023, 11:02:27 AM »

Mathematically, sure, though if he lost MI, it's almost a given he also lost PA and WI, and without any of the Rust Belt trio, he'll fall short of 270.

He doesn't need them if he holds AZ/GA and Nevada actually.

This is like how Trump was supposed to need Virginia and Colorado to win in 2016, with The Midwest merely as a secondary garnish at best. No path without Florida either.

Actually he needs at least one. Biden holding AZ/GA/NV and Trump winning MI/PA/WI is a 279-259 Trump win.

Yup, Biden would also need NC on top, by going through the Sunbelt Stack. That said, he's not going to win NC if he loses the Rust Belt trio entirely. Let alone talking FL or TX.

And if Trump has won all three of the Rust Belt trio, heís almost certainly won at least one of the core Sun Belt battlegrounds, and more likely than not has carried all three.
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Devils30
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« Reply #18 on: November 21, 2023, 12:00:56 PM »

No, MI will come before PA, WI and he will need MI with NV, AZ, GA if he loses WI/PA.

For all the talk that Biden will perform like Hillary because he doesn't support Hamas enough for Dearborn, the odds of Trump getting 2016 margins in Oakland and Kent are close to zero.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #19 on: November 21, 2023, 12:52:21 PM »

No, MI will come before PA, WI and he will need MI with NV, AZ, GA if he loses WI/PA.

For all the talk that Biden will perform like Hillary because he doesn't support Hamas enough for Dearborn, the odds of Trump getting 2016 margins in Oakland and Kent are close to zero.

If Biden's lost both WI and PA, then it's safe to say Trump has at the very least also won Georgia back. And that's ballgame.
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Devils30
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« Reply #20 on: November 21, 2023, 01:21:31 PM »

ftp://
No, MI will come before PA, WI and he will need MI with NV, AZ, GA if he loses WI/PA.

For all the talk that Biden will perform like Hillary because he doesn't support Hamas enough for Dearborn, the odds of Trump getting 2016 margins in Oakland and Kent are close to zero.

If Biden's lost both WI and PA, then it's safe to say Trump has at the very least also won Georgia back. And that's ballgame.

No it's not safe to say that at all, GA was less than 1% more R than both in in 2020 and has the most favorable trends for Dems of any swing state. Biden could win with 274 with MI, NV, AZ, GA while losing WI, PA.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #21 on: November 21, 2023, 01:23:42 PM »

ftp://
No, MI will come before PA, WI and he will need MI with NV, AZ, GA if he loses WI/PA.

For all the talk that Biden will perform like Hillary because he doesn't support Hamas enough for Dearborn, the odds of Trump getting 2016 margins in Oakland and Kent are close to zero.

If Biden's lost both WI and PA, then it's safe to say Trump has at the very least also won Georgia back. And that's ballgame.

No it's not safe to say that at all, GA was less than 1% more R than both in in 2020 and has the most favorable trends for Dems of any swing state. Biden could win with 274 with MI, NV, AZ, GA while losing WI, PA.

Its trends do seem to be stalling somewhat because of Trump making gains with black voters.
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Devils30
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« Reply #22 on: November 21, 2023, 01:26:08 PM »

ftp://
No, MI will come before PA, WI and he will need MI with NV, AZ, GA if he loses WI/PA.

For all the talk that Biden will perform like Hillary because he doesn't support Hamas enough for Dearborn, the odds of Trump getting 2016 margins in Oakland and Kent are close to zero.

If Biden's lost both WI and PA, then it's safe to say Trump has at the very least also won Georgia back. And that's ballgame.

No it's not safe to say that at all, GA was less than 1% more R than both in in 2020 and has the most favorable trends for Dems of any swing state. Biden could win with 274 with MI, NV, AZ, GA while losing WI, PA.

Its trends do seem to be stalling somewhat because of Trump making gains with black voters.

Beware of polls, Walker was getting 20% of blacks in some polls and that ended up being completely off. And the final results were very suggestive of continuing trends with Ds improving on 2020 in metro Atlanta while Rs improved in the black belt, rural south GA.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #23 on: November 21, 2023, 01:27:17 PM »

ftp://
No, MI will come before PA, WI and he will need MI with NV, AZ, GA if he loses WI/PA.

For all the talk that Biden will perform like Hillary because he doesn't support Hamas enough for Dearborn, the odds of Trump getting 2016 margins in Oakland and Kent are close to zero.

If Biden's lost both WI and PA, then it's safe to say Trump has at the very least also won Georgia back. And that's ballgame.

No it's not safe to say that at all, GA was less than 1% more R than both in in 2020 and has the most favorable trends for Dems of any swing state. Biden could win with 274 with MI, NV, AZ, GA while losing WI, PA.

Its trends do seem to be stalling somewhat because of Trump making gains with black voters.

Beware of polls, Walker was getting 20% of blacks in some polls and that ended up being completely off. And the final results were very suggestive of continuing trends with Ds improving on 2020 in metro Atlanta while Rs improved in the black belt, rural south GA.

Or at the very least black turnout being low hurts more in GA than the rust belt.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #24 on: November 21, 2023, 01:34:37 PM »

Mathematically, sure, though if he lost MI, it's almost a given he also lost PA and WI, and without any of the Rust Belt trio, he'll fall short of 270.

He doesn't need them if he holds AZ/GA and Nevada actually.

This is like how Trump was supposed to need Virginia and Colorado to win in 2016, with The Midwest merely as a secondary garnish at best. No path without Florida either.

Actually he needs at least one. Biden holding AZ/GA/NV and Trump winning MI/PA/WI is a 279-259 Trump win.

Yup, Biden would also need NC on top, by going through the Sunbelt Stack. That said, he's not going to win NC if he loses the Rust Belt trio entirely. Let alone talking FL or TX.

And if Trump has won all three of the Rust Belt trio, heís almost certainly won at least one of the core Sun Belt battlegrounds, and more likely than not has carried all three.

Like Trump needing Colorado in 2016, it's a truism...'til it ain't.

Wouldn't stake anyone's career or life on this, as this feels more like a factor likely to happen an election or two down the road.
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