Dan Kildee retiring (MI–08)

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1725182218316722492?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mb...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

My starting theory is whoever wins Michigan picks up this seat, so tilt D

[Atlas Force]

Note that Pugh is already running for Senate; good chance she just drops down:

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1725185286483722566
https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1725188813381661119

Also, about Ananich:

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1725189847747375388

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Interestingly, Bill G. Schuette, son of long time Republican politician Bill Schuette, is 28 and a state representative from Midland. He’s definitely a top recruit for Republicans.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1725191227874627745

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1725191227874627745

The Dingells have had a representative in congress since 1933, 90 years.

[Roll Roons]

Republicans obviously have a better shot at flipping this seat without Kildee, but I'll believe it's ready to flip when I see it. Trump still didn't win this district and it strikes me as the kind of place that's much more Democratic downballot.

[Vosem]

Interestingly, Bill G. Schuette, son of long time Republican politician Bill Schuette, is 28 and a state representative from Midland. He’s definitely a top recruit for Republicans.

Schuette Sr. represented a version of this seat in the 1980s.

Midland is far from the seat's center of gravity, though; Republicans want a candidate from Bay County. Dream candidate is St. Rep. Tim Beson, who won a competitive seat in that county in 2020/2022. Likeliest candidate is probably Junge again.

Dream Democratic candidate is probably St. Sen. Rivet-McDonald, who won a competitive seat in a state Senate district overlapping this one.

This retirement is kind of bad news for Democrats, since Kildee was a routine overperformer, but it might be timed well, since the Democratic ticket performed really well here in 2022 after a series of disappointing cycles in 2016/2018/2020.

[Tekken_Guy]

Interestingly, Bill G. Schuette, son of long time Republican politician Bill Schuette, is 28 and a state representative from Midland. He’s definitely a top recruit for Republicans.

Schuette Sr. represented a version of this seat in the 1980s.

Midland is far from the seat's center of gravity, though; Republicans want a candidate from Bay County. Dream candidate is St. Rep. Tim Beson, who won a competitive seat in that county in 2020/2022. Likeliest candidate is probably Junge again.

Dream Democratic candidate is probably St. Sen. Rivet-McDonald, who won a competitive seat in a state Senate district overlapping this one.

This retirement is kind of bad news for Democrats, since Kildee was a routine overperformer, but it might be timed well, since the Democratic ticket performed really well here in 2022 after a series of disappointing cycles in 2016/2018/2020.

One issue with Rivet McDonald is that if she runs and wins, then her state senate seat would be at risk of flipping in a special, and given Democrats' narrow majorities in the chamber I don't think they can afford it.

[Splash]

Democrats probably need to nominate someone with a strong brand in Flint since the Flint 'burbs  are where they're at risk of hemorrhaging the most votes without Kildee's name on the ballot. State Senator John Cherry is one possibility. The Sheriff of Genesee County has also been mentioned as a possibility but I don't know much about his politics. 

She's not from Flint, but Vanessa Guerra, who is the Saginaw County Clerk, could also be a strong candidate. I doubt McDonald-Rivet will go for it since she's still only in her year of her first term but who knows when she'll have another opportunity like this, so I wouldn't rule it out.

The strongest candidate Republicans could field here is Ken Horn, who is a former State Senator that represented Saginaw and a portion of Genesee County. I think Junge is overrated but if that's who Republicans decide to coalesce around, I wouldn't complain. 

[Roll Roons]

Democrats probably need to nominate someone with a strong brand in Flint since the Flint 'burbs  are where they're at risk of hemorrhaging the most votes without Kildee's name on the ballot. State Senator John Cherry is one possibility. The Sheriff of Genesee County has also been mentioned as a possibility but I don't know much about his politics. 

She's not from Flint, but Vanessa Guerra, who is the Saginaw County Clerk, could also be a strong candidate. I doubt McDonald-Rivet will go for it since she's still only in her year of her first term but who knows when she'll have another opportunity like this, so I wouldn't rule it out.

The strongest candidate Republicans could field here is Ken Horn, who is a former State Senator that represented Saginaw and a portion of Genesee County. I think Junge is overrated but if that's who Republicans decide to coalesce around, I wouldn't complain. 

I know Michigan was disastrous for Republicans all-around, but Junge really flopped even controlling for the fact that he ran against an entrenched incumbent. They'll go for someone new.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/abbyliv817/status/1726775330789380246?t=TmynCQIoQZrIs2H2bcLz...

Someone who isn't from the legislature

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/PamelaPughMI/status/1729143267889967407?t=2XWtYEPiBh8OkU6fG8...

State board of education president officially in, dropping down from the senate election.

[Atlas Force]

Note that Pugh is already running for Senate; good chance she just drops down

And there we go

[I get stoned nowhere and get paid there]

Good for Pugh. I hope she wins the seat and even though I doubt it will make much of a difference, I hope this helps Harper in turn in the Senate race.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1729183588518891908?t=Bqie5BDj3Qr-cVUek...


Action on the Republican side. I think the commentary has value, which is why it is also here. Junge is not the best the GOP could put up.

[Red Wall]

Likely a GOP flip this seat will vote for Trump in 2024

[Tekken_Guy]

Likely a GOP flip this seat will vote for Trump in 2024

No. Biden is still narrowly favored to carry it IMO and it’s quite a bit more Dem downballot.