Turkey General Elections, 2007

[ag]

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not true. You miss independent gentlemen Seydaoglu (1.14%), Bilgin (0.64%) and 3 more hopelessnessfulls. The "diverse independents" combined get more than anyone of these, though.

[ag]

BTW, looks like 84.73% of voters in Diyarbakir voted for lists and/or candidates that will be represented in the Parliament. When was the last that happened?

AKP  41,22% 6 seats
IND1 12.6% 1 seat
IND2  11.79% 1 seat
IND3 9.67% 1 seat
IND4 9,45% 1 seat

None of the other independents gets even 1.5%. Impressive vote management!

There is such a thing as too impressive vote management:

Agri
1.  AKP   
  % 63,29   103.318  5 seats
2.  B: M.KUTLAY   
  % 12,46   20.341  0 seats
3.  B: H.YILMAZ   
  % 10,42   17.017  0 seats

324 votes more for Kutlay and less for Yilmaz would have been enough to take a seat.

Well, when you try a quirk for the first time, you are bound to be using the simplest strategy, and that they did to perfection.  Next time they should fine tune it a bit. Still, I am mightily impressed. How did they do it? Random how-to-vote cards?

[minionofmidas]

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not true. You miss independent gentlemen Seydaoglu (1.14%), Bilgin (0.64%) and 3 more hopelessnessfulls. The "diverse independents" combined get more than anyone of these, though.

Actually, my error lay somewhere else - I misread you as stating "all the other indies together get less than 1.5%", and assumed you'd overlooked the "diverse independents" listing... my bad.

Still waiting for
25 Izmir 1
26 Izmir 2
8 Adana
1 Bolu
56 Elazig
6 Hakkari
2 Mus
1 Tokat

Yeah, the Hatay precincts came in all in one batch (which ironically didn't change the national vote shares - must have been fairly close to the national average), which makes me hopeful for the same thing to happen in Izmir 1 and Elazig soon.

BTW, looks like 84.73% of voters in Diyarbakir voted for lists and/or candidates that will be represented in the Parliament. When was the last that happened?

AKP  41,22% 6 seats
IND1 12.6% 1 seat
IND2  11.79% 1 seat
IND3 9.67% 1 seat
IND4 9,45% 1 seat

None of the other independents gets even 1.5%. Impressive vote management!

There is such a thing as too impressive vote management:

Agri
1.  AKP   
  % 63,29   103.318  5 seats
2.  B: M.KUTLAY   
  % 12,46   20.341  0 seats
3.  B: H.YILMAZ   
  % 10,42   17.017  0 seats

324 votes more for Kutlay and less for Yilmaz would have been enough to take a seat.

Well, when you try a quirk for the first time, you are bound to be using the simplest strategy, and that they did to perfection.  Next time they should fine tune it a bit. Still, I am mightily impressed. How did they do it? Random how-to-vote cards?

In the villages, they probably just divvied up the province into territories to canvass, going by the voter rolls. Even in the diaspora cities, I guess most of the Kurdish nationalist votes come from ethnic Kurdish slums rather than from people living dispersed across the general population (indeed, I think the Kurdish vote in the urban centers is down on last time - probably because the latter group fell flat as a vote ressource).

EDIT: Hakkari and one Mus precinct in.

Hakkari result:
1.  AKP   
  % 31,98   30.110  1
2.  B: H.İKE   
  % 18,01   16.959  1
3.  B: H.GEYLANİ   
  % 16,31   15.354  1
4.  B: S.SUVAĞCİ   
  % 16,27   15.320  0
5.  B: E.CANAN   
  % 6,69   6.299  0

Probably safe to assume that, while Canan likely is Kurdish as well (few non-Kurds here near the corner with Iraq and Iran), he was not a DTP-endorsed candidate.

[ag]

The second Izmir district came in. The last seat there very close, and CHP did keep its advantage: 6 CHP, 4 AKP and 2 MHP.

[minionofmidas]

The second Izmir district came in. The last seat there very close, and CHP did keep its advantage: 6 CHP, 4 AKP and 2 MHP.

Got slightly less close as a result of those precincts.

Still waiting for 25 Izmir 1
8 Adana
56 Elazig
1 Tokat, but unless those Elazig precincts are extremely weird, seat distribution won't change, so

AKP 341
CHP 112
MHP 70
i 27
it is.

[ag]

Well, in Adana the difference between CHP and MHP is only 600 votes - and that determines a seat. 8 precincts are unlikely to change that, but, who knows?

[minionofmidas]

AKP 31.4% 361 seats
CHP 22.3% 179 seats
[i 10 seats]
(...)
2002 results with no threshold (but otherwise same election law)
AKP 263, CHP 117, DEHAP 48 (profiting from its concentration in the SE), DYP 45, MHP 33, GP 27, ANAP 8, SP 4, BBP 1, i 4.

this time around, little change:
AKP -6
CHP -5
MHP -2
DP 8 seats, GP 4 seats, SP 1 seat

[minionofmidas]

Well, in Adana the difference between CHP and MHP is only 600 votes - and that determines a seat. 8 precincts are unlikely to change that, but, who knows?

My bad; I just focussed on MHP vs indy.

[ag]

AKP 31.4% 361 seats
CHP 22.3% 179 seats
[i 10 seats]
(...)
2002 results with no threshold (but otherwise same election law)
AKP 263, CHP 117, DEHAP 48 (profiting from its concentration in the SE), DYP 45, MHP 33, GP 27, ANAP 8, SP 4, BBP 1, i 4.

this time around, little change:
AKP -6
CHP -5
MHP -2
DP 8 seats, GP 4 seats, SP 1 seat

Neat illustration to the following: once a democratic  system gets established, both political  parties and voters have a chance to adjust to the electoral law. And, if political camps are broadly defined and polarized, similar (within the current political situation) parties cannot co-exist: the weaker version gets obliterated through strategic voting.  Though, frankly, I never though one could get such decent PR result in the Turkish system.

[minionofmidas]

Elazig in. I'm calling it a night.

[Verily]

Stupid question: With the MHP and (probably) several Independents elected to the parliament, is it possible that the AKP might actually win less seats than last time?

Very possible. AKP can only come close to 66% of seats (their stated goal) if only one other party makes it in, which clearly won't happen.

[ag]

All but the final 8 precincts in Adana in. Though, strangely, it seems some further adjustment in Adana (and elsewhere) has happened (and is happening as we speak), making it no longer so tight. W/ 99.99% reporting the results are:

AKP 46.56% 341 seats  (-20)
CHP 20.81% 112 seats (-67)
MHP 14.25% 70 seats (+70)
DP 5.40% no seats (nil)
Independents 5.18% 27 seats (+17)

[ag]

Final? preliminary results (100% reporting):

AKP 46.54% 341 seats  (-20)
CHP 20.79% 112 seats (-67)
MHP 14.25% 70 seats (+70)
DP 5.40% no seats (nil)
Independents 5.19% 27 seats (+17)

[Hash]

Yilmaz? That happens to be the family name of my turkish friend. Is it a common name?

[Colin]

Yilmaz? That happens to be the family name of my turkish friend. Is it a common name?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yilmaz

Seems rather common.

[kireev]

As usual detailed statistics and maps are available on my website.

http://www.electoralgeography.com/en/countries/t/turkey/2007-legislative-elections-turkey.html

[Conan]

SO who says Turkey will ever be in the EU? I say they have a 10% chance. Also, I do not support their candidacy for reasons not associated with this.

[ag]

BTW, minimal disagreements about websites about the seat distribution persist. Seems like the final seat is in dispute between CHP (111 or 112) and Independent (27 or 28). Anyone know which district is too close to  call (or even clear computation based on given results)?

[Middle-aged Europe]

SO who says Turkey will ever be in the EU? I say they have a 10% chance. Also, I do not support their candidacy for reasons not associated with this.

Well, the chances are probably a bit higher under a AKP government than under a CHP or any other secular government, since the AKP seems to be pursuing the most pro-Western, pro-European, and also pro-American foreign policy of either party, while CHP & Co. often appear more or less nationalistic and sometimes even eurosceptic.

[minionofmidas]

SO who says Turkey will ever be in the EU? I say they have a 10% chance.

That depends on events here in the EU.

[minionofmidas]

Comparing results province by province... one thing I note is the distribution of the CHP vote change. They gained quite a bit back in the west; the further east you get, the smaller the gains get until, when you get to Kurdistan proper, they're losing votes across the board.

3 of the indies would appear non-DTP: One of the two in Tunceli (probably incumbent indie reelected), and the ones in Sivas and Rize (which, oddly enough, were the BBP's and ANAP's strongholds last time around... and yes, these vote bases seem to be what the indy wins were built upon).

[minionofmidas]

BTW, minimal disagreements about websites about the seat distribution persist. Seems like the final seat is in dispute between CHP (111 or 112) and Independent (27 or 28). Anyone know which district is too close to  call (or even clear computation based on given results)?

Probably Adana, where the MHP overtook the CHP, so it's either 6 AKP - 4 MHP - 3 CHP - 1 Kurd or 6 AKP - 4 MHP - 4 CHP (but presumably the latter), rather than the 6 AKP - 4 CHP - 3 MHP - 1 Kurd that was reported last night.
The results slightly changed at Urfa to make it 9 AKP - 2 Kurds rather than 10 - 1, that's the 28th indy.

There's another oddity I noticed on the Hürriyet site - they changed the Manisa seat distribution to 5 AKP - 3 MHP - 2 CHP from 6-2-2, but, although it's very close, the votes give 6-2-2. What's more, the national seats figure adds up if you use 6-2-2 - probably just an error.


Confirmation re non DTP indies: The second-polling independent in Tunceli is the incumbent. Who was a DYP MP until 2002. The indy in Rize is none other than longterm ANAP head Mesut Yilmaz. The indy in Sivas is none other than BBP head Muhsin Yazicioglu. Seems like the Kurds aren't the only ones able to use loopholes.

[Democratic Hawk]

As usual detailed statistics and maps are available on my website.

http://www.electoralgeography.com/en/countries/t/turkey/2007-legislative-elections-turkey.html

Which are the two CHP 'provinces' in Asia Minor?

Dave

[Middle-aged Europe]

Which are the two CHP 'provinces' in Asia Minor?

Dave

The northern one: Izmir I & II (it's a single province, but consists of two electoral districts, both voted CHP).

The southern one: Mugla

[minionofmidas]

Although elected thanks to Kurdish votes, Ufuk Uras (i - Istanbul 1) is actually the chair of the ÖDP, just about the only non-banned one of Turkey's divers Trot outfits. Funny thing is that unlike the BBP and ANAP, the ÖDP actually ran as a party in these elections... though not in Istanbul.
13 representatives elected on CHP lists are actually members of the DSP.