Official 2023 General Election Results Thread

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Supreme Court results should lean pretty D right now, given that there is huge backlash over Dobbs specifically. However, in an actual Biden vs Trump election, the economy matters far more than in a Supreme Court election, and social issues such as abortion are proportionately weighted less.

That was allegedly the line for 2022, and it wasn't true.

2022 was R +3 in the generic ballot, far more Republican than Supreme Court results. Ron Johnson still won while Supreme Court was D +11 in WI. Also 2022 non-voters break 2:1 Trump in Morning Consult.

[wbrocks67]

Supreme Court results should lean pretty D right now, given that there is huge backlash over Dobbs specifically. However, in an actual Biden vs Trump election, the economy matters far more than in a Supreme Court election, and social issues such as abortion are proportionately weighted less.

That was allegedly the line for 2022, and it wasn't true.

2022 was R +3 in the generic ballot, far more Republican than Supreme Court results. Ron Johnson still won while Supreme Court was D +11 in WI. Also 2022 non-voters break 2:1 Trump in Morning Consult.

None of that really matters. Bottom line is it should've been a fantastic year for the GOP and it wasn't. If the GOP keeps ignoring the warning signs on these social issues, it will be their own downfall.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Supreme Court results should lean pretty D right now, given that there is huge backlash over Dobbs specifically. However, in an actual Biden vs Trump election, the economy matters far more than in a Supreme Court election, and social issues such as abortion are proportionately weighted less.

That was allegedly the line for 2022, and it wasn't true.

2022 was R +3 in the generic ballot, far more Republican than Supreme Court results. Ron Johnson still won while Supreme Court was D +11 in WI. Also 2022 non-voters break 2:1 Trump in Morning Consult.

None of that really matters. Bottom line is it should've been a fantastic year for the GOP and it wasn't. If the GOP keeps ignoring the warning signs on these social issues, it will be their own downfall.

It wasn't a great year for Republicans, but neither was 1978. The economy still matters as well, and it should outweigh abortion in the Presidential election (but maybe not at the Senate level).  I agree that abortion is a bad issue for the GOP, but continued electoral backlash at this point is inevitable until the Democrats next regain their trifecta in 2029 and are at a position to do something about it (similar to Obamacare).

Also, in some ways we are in a Trump midterm environment, given how salient Trump is in political discourse.

[Duke of York]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4307546-democrats-flipped-this-pennsylvania-county-for-first-time-in-100-years/

Democrats officially flip Dauphin County board of Commissioners for first time since 1919.

[NOVA Green]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4307546-democrats-flipped-this-pennsylvania-county-for-first-time-in-100-years/

Democrats officially flip Dauphin County board of Commissioners for first time since 1919.

Perhaps not totally surprising, considering that Dauphin County has been trending DEM at the PRES level in recent cycles.

Still, I would imagine that in races like this traditionally the maxim/truism/ or cliche, depending upon ones perspective that "All Politics are Local" might not necessarily be the case here, but not really an expert on Dauphin County local elections.

Anyways FWIW the past (20) Years of PRES results:

2020:   53.4% D- 44.9% R    +8.5% D
2016:   49.1% D- 46.2% R   +2.9% D
2012:   52.3% D-  46.2% R   +6.1% D
2008:   53.9% D- 44.9% R   +9.0% D
2004:   45.6% D- 53.9% R     + 8.3% R
2000:   44.1% D- 53.3% R- 2.6 OTHER +9.2% R

Needless to say, that Dauphin County has moved from being a Republican leaning county in PA under Bush Jr, with the last Democratic PRES-GE-PRES voted for in 1964 to a DEM leaning County under Obama (Compared to both National and Statewide results).

There was that blip in 2016 when DEMs selected a relatively unpopular GE candidate, but 2020 clearly indicates a massive Biden "bounce-back", considering he significantly over-exceeded both State and Federal margins, even compared with the Obama '08 landslide.

[wbrocks67]

McCaffery now up to +6.90%, 53.45% - 46.55%.

Still need provisionals from Allegheny, Delaware, Berks, Erie, that looks like it will get him to nearly exactly +7.00%.

[Oryxslayer]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4307546-democrats-flipped-this-pennsylvania-county-for-first-time-in-100-years/

Democrats officially flip Dauphin County board of Commissioners for first time since 1919.

Perhaps not totally surprising, considering that Dauphin County has been trending DEM at the PRES level in recent cycles.

Still, I would imagine that in races like this traditionally the maxim/truism/ or cliche, depending upon ones perspective that "All Politics are Local" might not necessarily be the case here, but not really an expert on Dauphin County local elections.

Anyways FWIW the past (20) Years of PRES results:

2020:   53.4% D- 44.9% R    +8.5% D
2016:   49.1% D- 46.2% R   +2.9% D
2012:   52.3% D-  46.2% R   +6.1% D
2008:   53.9% D- 44.9% R   +9.0% D
2004:   45.6% D- 53.9% R     + 8.3% R
2000:   44.1% D- 53.3% R- 2.6 OTHER +9.2% R

Needless to say, that Dauphin County has moved from being a Republican leaning county in PA under Bush Jr, with the last Democratic PRES-GE-PRES voted for in 1964 to a DEM leaning County under Obama (Compared to both National and Statewide results).

There was that blip in 2016 when DEMs selected a relatively unpopular GE candidate, but 2020 clearly indicates a massive Biden "bounce-back", considering he significantly over-exceeded both State and Federal margins, even compared with the Obama '08 landslide.

Talking around with actual PA folks, the reason for this taking so long comparatively (and happening at the same time as numerous other Dem gains in much more GOP Cumberland) is cause of the Same Story™. Low-income working age people have better places to be than voting in off years, especially if the only things on the ballot are County officers perceived to be unimportant. In Dauphin,  this means the urban minority communities in Harrisburg.  To overcome this it took an off-year court election seen as important, and gains among the suburban/economically comfortable side of the electorate who do vote regularly in these contests, aka the Same Story™ as so many other places.

[wbrocks67]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4307546-democrats-flipped-this-pennsylvania-county-for-first-time-in-100-years/

Democrats officially flip Dauphin County board of Commissioners for first time since 1919.

Perhaps not totally surprising, considering that Dauphin County has been trending DEM at the PRES level in recent cycles.

Still, I would imagine that in races like this traditionally the maxim/truism/ or cliche, depending upon ones perspective that "All Politics are Local" might not necessarily be the case here, but not really an expert on Dauphin County local elections.

Anyways FWIW the past (20) Years of PRES results:

2020:   53.4% D- 44.9% R    +8.5% D
2016:   49.1% D- 46.2% R   +2.9% D
2012:   52.3% D-  46.2% R   +6.1% D
2008:   53.9% D- 44.9% R   +9.0% D
2004:   45.6% D- 53.9% R     + 8.3% R
2000:   44.1% D- 53.3% R- 2.6 OTHER +9.2% R

Needless to say, that Dauphin County has moved from being a Republican leaning county in PA under Bush Jr, with the last Democratic PRES-GE-PRES voted for in 1964 to a DEM leaning County under Obama (Compared to both National and Statewide results).

There was that blip in 2016 when DEMs selected a relatively unpopular GE candidate, but 2020 clearly indicates a massive Biden "bounce-back", considering he significantly over-exceeded both State and Federal margins, even compared with the Obama '08 landslide.

Talking around with actual PA folks, the reason for this taking so long comparatively (and happening at the same time as numerous other Dem gains in much more GOP Cumberland) is cause of the Same Story™. Low-income working age people have better places to be than voting in off years, especially if the only things on the ballot are County officers perceived to be unimportant. In Dauphin,  this means the urban minority communities in Harrisburg.  To overcome this it took an off-year court election seen as important, and gains among the suburban/economically comfortable side of the electorate who do vote regularly in these contests, aka the Same Story™ as so many other places.

Some of this is true, but there seems to be a prevailing myth across the pundits right now that there is some massive D-R turnout advantage, when most of the midterms and specials have not shown this to necessarily be the case. Persuasion is mattering a *lot*

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FWIW County Commissions in Pennsylvania have just three members, and previously Dauphin County's was 2R-1D, now it's 2D-1R, so this story is really just "Democrats gain seat on Dauphin County Board of Commissioners"

[NOVA Green]

FWIW County Commissions in Pennsylvania have just three members, and previously Dauphin County's was 2R-1D, now it's 2D-1R, so this story is really just "Democrats gain seat on Dauphin County Board of Commissioners"

Well BRTD this is technically the case, in what was after all a relatively close local election.

Still, I don't believe you have yet provided any arguments as to the "why".

Were there particular local items that caused the flip for this one particular election, or perhaps it might be more representative of some down-ballot races in places in PA that chose to punish local PUB incumbents even in what traditionally would be considered very local type elections?

Didn't Bucks County PA also just flip their Board of Commissioners as well in what would generally be considered a low turnout "Non-Election Year"?

[wbrocks67]

FWIW County Commissions in Pennsylvania have just three members, and previously Dauphin County's was 2R-1D, now it's 2D-1R, so this story is really just "Democrats gain seat on Dauphin County Board of Commissioners"

Well BRTD this is technically the case, in what was after all a relatively close local election.

Still, I don't believe you have yet provided any arguments as to the "why".

Were there particular local items that caused the flip for this one particular election, or perhaps it might be more representative of some down-ballot races in places in PA that chose to punish local PUB incumbents even in what traditionally would be considered very local type elections?

Didn't Bucks County PA also just flip their Board of Commissioners as well in what would generally be considered a low turnout "Non-Election Year"?

I think most of it is chalked up to Dauphin trending blue. It's generally been bluer on the presidential level but has had a downballot lag for Ds that seems to be moving along.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/johncraven1/status/1724585371718111679

[wbrocks67]

McCaffery has now passed +7.00%

McCaffery 53.53%
Carluccio 46.47%

McCaffery +7.06

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

McCaffery has now passed +7.00%

McCaffery 53.53%
Carluccio 46.47%

McCaffery +7.06

Ha-hahaha he won by a larger margin than Kathy Hochul did last year. Just amazing on both fronts.

[wbrocks67]

Competitive districts in VA generally got bluer since 2019/2021

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1725535290180121047

[Brittain33]

FWIW County Commissions in Pennsylvania have just three members, and previously Dauphin County's was 2R-1D, now it's 2D-1R, so this story is really just "Democrats gain seat on Dauphin County Board of Commissioners"

I believe Pennsylvania requires a minority party to have 1 seat on the Board so this is a flip moreso than gaining a seat.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Louisiana is about as lopsided as it was in the first round. A good reminder that off-year elections probably don’t mean much.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1724628806193836250?s=20

[Duke of York]

https://midhudsonnews.com/2023/11/08/democrats-secure-majority-in-sullivan-legislature/

Democrats won the Sullivan County legislature in Upstate New York in a upset.

[wbrocks67]

Louisiana is about as lopsided as it was in the first round. A good reminder that off-year elections probably don’t mean much.

This is so dense. Lousiana is the only state where one party simply didn't try. That is not comparable to any of the other major races.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ryanc_2025/status/1726303178428391736?t=RB7hrMV3JsiwW6MM7jSl...


Interesting results.  The real answer with off year elections is that there is no uniform electorate.  In places like this there can be a real call to action off local issues, in others nothing. And when there is nothing,  voters act in a default manner.

[wbrocks67]

MS is down to Reeves +3.3 now

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1726626835273060790

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/ryanc_2025/status/1726303178428391736?t=RB7hrMV3JsiwW6MM7jSl...


Interesting results.  The real answer with off year elections is that there is no uniform electorate.  In places like this there can be a real call to action off local issues, in others nothing. And when there is nothing,  voters act in a default manner.

"Assad margins" lol

I need to start using that.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1727125278143774764?t=JbgdGO_3sfwH1d7VTxGeV...

The elections, aren't over, we got runoffs happening every now and again until even January (Texas HD special). Here's some numbers from Florida.

City Commissioner Steve Meiner becomes the next mayor of Miami Beach.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/ABCNews4/status/1727154825589330104

Apparently he's the first Republican mayor since Reconstruction.