Official 2023 General Election Results Thread

[wbrocks67]

This is how bad things were for the GOP this week in PA:

https://twitter.com/lara_putnam/status/1722641125524091084

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's really hard to square all these recent election results/trends with predictions of Pennsylvania becoming the next Ohio, which appears to be a popular belief on this website.

[Duke of York]

This is how bad things were for the GOP this week in PA:

https://twitter.com/lara_putnam/status/1722641125524091084

wow. Hopefully its the beginning of a trend and Democrats start winning some of these counties.

[wbrocks67]

More votes have trickled in, McCaffery now up to +6.8% in PA, 53.4% - 46.6%.

[Duke of York]

https://www.wgal.com/article/dauphin-county-democrats-claim-victory-in-commissioners-race/45779402

Democrats may have won their first ever majority on the Dauphin County Board of Commissioners

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://www.wgal.com/article/dauphin-county-democrats-claim-victory-in-commissioners-race/45779402

Democrats may have won their first ever majority on the Dauphin County Board of Commissioners

I'd be very worried if I was Scott Perry.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's really hard to square all these recent election results/trends with predictions of Pennsylvania becoming the next Ohio, which appears to be a popular belief on this website.

Perhaps Ohio is becoming the next Pennsylvania?

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1722724426532225043
Austin is beyond saving, its sad that the Capital of Texas is in the city that hates the state the most.

I don't understand why anyone would have a problem with this. Is Austin that heavily vegan?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1722724426532225043
Austin is beyond saving, its sad that the Capital of Texas is in the city that hates the state the most.

I don't understand why anyone would have a problem with this. Is Austin that heavily vegan?

No, I think the issue is that the measure was just seen as red meat for the GOP, and did not need to be on the ballot for reasons beyond that.

[adma]

https://twitter.com/donnermaps/status/1722808214197285200

I suppose I'm not the only one who gets an Alfred E. Neuman vibe from her.  (Not a political commentary, BTW)

[NOVA Green]

So correct me if I'm wrong about the two Ohio initiatives, but there are appears to be no counties which voted yes on issue 1 but no on issue 2, although there were a lot of counties which voted Vice versa. Nevertheless, the margin of victory for issue 2 was only nominally more than issue one, and appears primarily due to a significant drop in support for issue 2 in several democratic strongholds, most notably Cuyahoga County where issue to ran almost 10 points behind issue one.

Someone here offered the opinion that this was due to significantly less support among African-American voters for legalizing marijuana compared to supporting legalized abortion, particularly a generational divide with more resistance to legalized pot among older African americans. Has anyone taken it a look at precinct maps to see if there's some Credence to this Theory of significantly less support for Issue 2 among black voters?
 

Hey Badger...

Really good question...

So checked around a little bit and doesn't really look like we have much precinct level results from heavily African-African counties in Ohio.

1.) OH-SoS will likely post a complete precinct level data-set exportable to Excel shortly after the votes are certified.

2.) Cuyahoga County---  No precinct level data available yet at all from what I can see.

3.) Franklin County--- We do have a precinct level breakdown map on their election website, where one can look at results by Ballot Measure. Unfortunately, results not yet available to dl to .xls or .txt formats.

Still, without being able to easily overlap Census Tracts with election results, let alone historical voting results, and not even able to do a compare / contrast when it comes to Turnout (TO) between precincts results are limited.

But yeah you got some of the largest African-American precincts from Inner-Eastside Columbus voting something like 80-90% in favor of legalization. (Just a brief survey and clicking on precincts on the map).

4.) Hamilton County obviously got some solid hoods with overwhelmingly Jet Black Brothers and Sisters floating around...

Could be tripping, but doesn't look like we have any precinct level results yet here.

Still, looks like we can at least look at turnout levels by precinct in an interactive map.

Not a total expert on Hamilton County, but looks like Turnout was lowest in some of the heaviest historical Black neighborhoods including some places around Over-The-Rhein.

5.) Rolling up the road to far NW Ohio, we hit the next largest solid Black County in the State, not to far from Detroit, with a really solid Working-Class Union Movement going way back to the New Deal Era...

Lucas County has TO % by precinct posted on their website.

Doesn't look like they have election results yet posted...

6.) Montgomery County not to far from the last stop on the Underground Railroad (28% Black and Proud).

Full confession, lived something like 15-25 drive down the road from Downtown Dayton back in the dayz...

Nothing... directs to OH-SoS Elections page.

7.) Mahoning County (#7th Blackest County in Ohio).

Link is broken...

So.... patience young Badger Jedi.

We have very little in the way of preliminary precinct level results from any of the Blackest Precincts in Ohio on any election results at all, with the exception of a few data points from Franklin County.

Still, initial results appear to perhaps indicate that at least in some inner heavily African-American precincts of inner Eastside Columbus it looks like vote for Legalization exceeded Franklin County overall results.

11/10/23 Update

2.) Cuyahoga County has now dumped provisional election results by precinct (Including the Prop Measures)!

Unfortunately this is basically a 1,348 page PDF document which goes precinct by precinct and not easily convertible into an Excel based format.

I might be able to use my work computer with Adobe Pro to convert it and then see if the data sets can be converted into an .xls format (Which has worked in the past as a pilot program), but basically without having data-sets flagging precincts by AA POP, gets a bit tricky at face value.

Now we do have some other data points trickling in...

Lorain County recent dumps unofficial canvass numbers..

Lorain City has one of the lowest % of "whites" in OH at 54%, with roughly 26% Latino and 16% Black.

Measure 2:

YES: 9,301   (65.3%)
NO:  4,933   (34.7%)

Not so sure with a brief look at precinct maps versus census tracts, but it does appear that Weed Legalization did better in the less Anglo precincts within the City...

Might need to take a fresh look at this in the morning...

https://www.voteloraincountyohio.gov/_files/ugd/2568d0_65441ccaacc04256a5e072c2afa0fca5.pdf

[PSOL]

More and more I am conceding that we are in a repeat of 2020. Biden will win off of negative polarization against Trump and I’m not sure Republican downballot groundwork can offer much assistance to the president or come out of the Trump era with much survival.

[Yoda]

It's really hard to square all these recent election results/trends with predictions of Pennsylvania becoming the next Ohio, which appears to be a popular belief on this website.

Doesn't PA have the highest % of residents over 65 of all 50 states? If anything, I'd think the state would get bluer as the oldest generation dies off and is replaced with the youngest, which I imagine is strongly tilted toward dems in PA.

[Yoda]

More and more I am conceding that we are in a repeat of 2020. Biden will win off of negative polarization against Trump and I’m not sure Republican downballot groundwork can offer much assistance to the president or come out of the Trump era with much survival.

I think the interview where trump said "there has to be some form of punishment for women who get an abortion" is going to plastered on every TV screen in every swing state next year. The republicans really, truly s*** the bed when they overturned Roe. They're not anywhere near done paying the price for that almost unfathomable act of cynical politics from SCOTUS.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It's really hard to square all these recent election results/trends with predictions of Pennsylvania becoming the next Ohio, which appears to be a popular belief on this website.

Doesn't PA have the highest % of residents over 65 of all 50 states? If anything, I'd think the state would get bluer as the oldest generation dies off and is replaced with the youngest, which I imagine is strongly tilted toward dems in PA.

No, Florida and Maine are the states with highest % over 65. Pennsylvania is 7th here.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It's really hard to square all these recent election results/trends with predictions of Pennsylvania becoming the next Ohio, which appears to be a popular belief on this website.

The same polls showing Casey winning by more than McCaffery show Trump up in Pennsylvania.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's really hard to square all these recent election results/trends with predictions of Pennsylvania becoming the next Ohio, which appears to be a popular belief on this website.

The same polls showing Casey winning by more than McCaffery show Trump up in Pennsylvania.

Have you considered the possibility that the polls just might not be right? Just like the ones in the past two presidential elections and in multiple races in the midterms?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It's really hard to square all these recent election results/trends with predictions of Pennsylvania becoming the next Ohio, which appears to be a popular belief on this website.

The same polls showing Casey winning by more than McCaffery show Trump up in Pennsylvania.

Have you considered the possibility that the polls just might not be right? Just like the ones in the past two presidential elections and in multiple races in the midterms?

The polls could underestimate Trump too, like it did the last 2 times he was on the ballot. We don’t know, but it does seem like Biden should lose easily given the economic state.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's really hard to square all these recent election results/trends with predictions of Pennsylvania becoming the next Ohio, which appears to be a popular belief on this website.

Doesn't PA have the highest % of residents over 65 of all 50 states? If anything, I'd think the state would get bluer as the oldest generation dies off and is replaced with the youngest, which I imagine is strongly tilted toward dems in PA.

Exactly, and if you look at population trends, SEPA is the only part of the state that's growing, and we all know which way that area is heading. I expect the state to remain light blue for the foreseeable future, with maybe a slight Dem shift.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1722724426532225043
Austin is beyond saving, its sad that the Capital of Texas is in the city that hates the state the most.

I don't understand why anyone would have a problem with this. Is Austin that heavily vegan?

No, I think the issue is that the measure was just seen as red meat for the GOP, and did not need to be on the ballot for reasons beyond that.

Likewise, this result is red meat for folks that hated Austin to begin with.

Not much different from those California props where San Francisco is the outlier.

[Progressive Pessimist]

More and more I am conceding that we are in a repeat of 2020. Biden will win off of negative polarization against Trump and I’m not sure Republican downballot groundwork can offer much assistance to the president or come out of the Trump era with much survival.

I think the interview where trump said "there has to be some form of punishment for women who get an abortion" is going to plastered on every TV screen in every swing state next year. The republicans really, truly s*** the bed when they overturned Roe. They're not anywhere near done paying the price for that almost unfathomable act of cynical politics from SCOTUS.

I don't know if there has been any political backfiring this bad since Pete Wilson's immigration proposals.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Supreme Court results should lean pretty D right now, given that there is huge backlash over Dobbs specifically. However, in an actual Biden vs Trump election, the economy matters far more than in a Supreme Court election, and social issues such as abortion are proportionately weighted less.

[Yoda]

More and more I am conceding that we are in a repeat of 2020. Biden will win off of negative polarization against Trump and I’m not sure Republican downballot groundwork can offer much assistance to the president or come out of the Trump era with much survival.

I think the interview where trump said "there has to be some form of punishment for women who get an abortion" is going to plastered on every TV screen in every swing state next year. The republicans really, truly s*** the bed when they overturned Roe. They're not anywhere near done paying the price for that almost unfathomable act of cynical politics from SCOTUS.

I don't know if there has been any political backfiring this bad since Pete Wilson's immigration proposals.

In general, I'm not a fan of Bill Maher and don't watch his show, but I remember, like, 10 years ago maybe, I randomly caught a segment of his show where he said that he thought that one day he believed the republicans would succeed in overturning Roe, and that it would be "the best thing that ever happened to the Democratic Party." I remember thinking that I agreed with the latter, but not the former, b/c I didn't think that republicans actually, truly wanted to overturn Roe (b/c they knew what the backlash would be), but rather used it as red meat to fire up the base. It's crazy to look back at that and think how right he turned out to be. What's crazy is that the republicans literally cannot STOP shooting themselves in the foot over abortion. Ohio republicans have already flatly stated that the Issue 1 result doesn't matter and that they have "a God given right to outlaw abortion." It's literally like they are actively trying to reelect Sherrod Brown next year. They're keeping the issue alive more than democrats could hope for.

[TML]

A few days ago, an article was published in City & State which went over the election results in Long Island, and one point it made was that Democratic candidates spent too much time using George Santos as a boogeyman against their Republican opponents and not enough time emphasizing what they themselves stood for in terms of policy. This would be similar to how Terry McAuliffe spent too much time using Trump as a boogeyman and wound up committing several key blunders on the campaign trail that ultimately cost him a return trip to the VA governor's mansion.

Now, there's an election bill that has been passed by the NY state legislature (and awaiting signature by Gov. Hochul) which would shift most local level elections in NY from odd years to even years, effective 2025-26. The rationale behind this move is that it would increase turnout in these local level elections by aligning them with federal elections, but given the election results in Long Island over the last three years or so, I'm not even sure I can say with confidence that increased turnout alone would guarantee more Democratic victories in Long Island.

[wbrocks67]

Supreme Court results should lean pretty D right now, given that there is huge backlash over Dobbs specifically. However, in an actual Biden vs Trump election, the economy matters far more than in a Supreme Court election, and social issues such as abortion are proportionately weighted less.

That was allegedly the line for 2022, and it wasn't true.