Official 2023 General Election Results Thread

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/Faj873/status/1722398058682409170

Interesting.

 But I have argued that the GOP problem in VA going forward will be Richmond area and Hampton roads to a lesser extent. Nova just votes how you would expect it.

But I was told that NO election would EVER veer from presidential 2020 numbers from president to city council until the end of time.

[wbrocks67]

I also reject Nate Cohn's message of "Low turnout elections" in his NYT article out today.

VA seemingly had close to 2021/2022 style turnout, PA had 3M+ (highest off year in many years) and OH had nearly 2022 style turnout. No, these are not presidential year election turnouts, but to say they are "Low turnout" is just blatantly wrong.

Virginia was a 9-10 point shift right from 2020, and OH electorate was Biden +2 in the exit polls. PA was weird with Erie flipping red and Dauphin trending right.

That's my point though, if you're getting 4M to show up in Ohio with a Biden +2 electorate, that's no small feat. To say these are "low turnout elections with high propensity voters" is kind of really not giving the context. If this election was Biden +2 electorate with like, 2M voters in Ohio, then yes, sure that's low turnout. But 4M is not low turnout in the slightest.

Also, Erie was weird and after further dissection, McCaffery was the only Democrat to perform meh there so I think it had more to do with either Ds not spending money there on his race or Carluccio targeting that area more. The rest of the Ds on the ticket performed great, actually oddly enough

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/Faj873/status/1722398058682409170

Interesting.

 But I have argued that the GOP problem in VA going forward will be Richmond area and Hampton roads to a lesser extent. Nova just votes how you would expect it.

But I was told that NO election would EVER veer from presidential 2020 numbers from president to city council until the end of time.

Yes, Richmond is where the big Dem trend is in VA now.  NOVA has basically stabilized, except for gradual Dem gains in the far outer suburbs (western Loudoun, Stafford, Fauquier).

[Vosem]

So correct me if I'm wrong about the two Ohio initiatives, but there are appears to be no counties which voted yes on issue 1 but no on issue 2, although there were a lot of counties which voted Vice versa. Nevertheless, the margin of victory for issue 2 was only nominally more than issue one, and appears primarily due to a significant drop in support for issue 2 in several democratic strongholds, most notably Cuyahoga County where issue to ran almost 10 points behind issue one.

Someone here offered the opinion that this was due to significantly less support among African-American voters for legalizing marijuana compared to supporting legalized abortion, particularly a generational divide with more resistance to legalized pot among older African americans. Has anyone taken it a look at precinct maps to see if there's some Credence to this Theory of significantly less support for Issue 2 among black voters?
 

My own general hypothesis is that marijuana legalization (and drug issues more broadly) are a much cleaner young vs. old issue than something like abortion, which is why almost everywhere tended to be closer for the marijuana referendum. There are plenty of younger conservatives who find themselves in a culture where using marijuana is no big deal (and, in general, younger conservatives are usually likelier to be against the government doing almost anything), and plenty of older liberals who were taught that marijuana is very dangerous (and are much less likely to think that the government doesn't have the right to prosecute a war on drugs).

By contrast, abortion is more of a normal Republican vs. Democratic issue (albeit with many, many swing voters joining the Democratic side, and the Democratic side more enthused broadly). There are plenty of young religious voters and plenty of older secular voters. Age plays a factor for sure -- I think lots of polling has shown that younger secular people are much less likely to be pro-life than older secular people -- but it is much less decisive. Religion is not going away in American politics, but -- very, very gradually, kicking and screaming -- the War on Drugs is going away.

[wbrocks67]

I also reject Nate Cohn's message of "Low turnout elections" in his NYT article out today.

VA seemingly had close to 2021/2022 style turnout, PA had 3M+ (highest off year in many years) and OH had nearly 2022 style turnout. No, these are not presidential year election turnouts, but to say they are "Low turnout" is just blatantly wrong.

Just to put a finer tip on this: "low turnout" would be the 2017 PASC election. Turnout only 2.1M.

This year? Nearly a *million* more at close to 3.1M.

[kwabbit]

I also reject Nate Cohn's message of "Low turnout elections" in his NYT article out today.

VA seemingly had close to 2021/2022 style turnout, PA had 3M+ (highest off year in many years) and OH had nearly 2022 style turnout. No, these are not presidential year election turnouts, but to say they are "Low turnout" is just blatantly wrong.

Just to put a finer tip on this: "low turnout" would be the 2017 PASC election. Turnout only 2.1M.

This year? Nearly a *million* more at close to 3.1M.

I think Tuesday was a very positive sign for Democrats in 2024 but Cohn might still have a point with turnout. 2020 pres was 6.9 million and 2022 Gov was 5.4 million. In the past the turnout curve was monotonic: the higher the turnout the better it was for Democrats. Now, the higher the turnout the better for the GOP up to a certain point, around midterm levels. Then it flattens out. So that is a factor in why the GOP gets crushed in off year and special elections.

But the more important point is that Democrats are getting blue wave levels of persuasion gains in most elections. 2022 was a Trump electorate by a few points yet Fetterman won by 5. I'd wager that Tuesday was a Biden electorate but McCaffery is still outperforming that by 5 pts.

2024 is hard to think about because no actual elections are pointing to Trump or the GOP winning but polls are. It's not like polls have really performed that poorly since the midterms. Polling generally showed a moderate Beshear lead and a narrow GCB lead for the Dems in Virginia. MS had decent polling too.

[wbrocks67]

I also reject Nate Cohn's message of "Low turnout elections" in his NYT article out today.

VA seemingly had close to 2021/2022 style turnout, PA had 3M+ (highest off year in many years) and OH had nearly 2022 style turnout. No, these are not presidential year election turnouts, but to say they are "Low turnout" is just blatantly wrong.

Just to put a finer tip on this: "low turnout" would be the 2017 PASC election. Turnout only 2.1M.

This year? Nearly a *million* more at close to 3.1M.

I think Tuesday was a very positive sign for Democrats in 2024 but Cohn might still have a point with turnout. 2020 pres was 6.9 million and 2022 Gov was 5.4 million. In the past the turnout curve was monotonic: the higher the turnout the better it was for Democrats. Now, the higher the turnout the better for the GOP up to a certain point, around midterm levels. Then it flattens out. So that is a factor in why the GOP gets crushed in off year and special elections.

But the more important point is that Democrats are getting blue wave levels of persuasion gains in most elections. 2022 was a Trump electorate by a few points yet Fetterman won by 5. I'd wager that Tuesday was a Biden electorate but McCaffery is still outperforming that by 5 pts.

2024 is hard to think about because no actual elections are pointing to Trump or the GOP winning but polls are. It's not like polls have really performed that poorly since the midterms. Polling generally showed a moderate Beshear lead and a narrow GCB lead for the Dems in Virginia. MS had decent polling too.

Right, this is not to say "McCaffery won by 7 so Biden will by 7", but the overall point, which I feel like is pretty reasonable, is that at the same time, it's also hard to say, looking at both 2022 and 2023 now, that Trump winning by 4/5 in PA is somehow reasonable given the results so far in elections that were not prez-level, but also not really that low. Trends in a lot of these places also bely any type of Trump surge because as you said, persuasion is also breaking through time and time again on key issues.

[wbrocks67]

Presley is up to 47.1%

Reeves +4.5 now.

[OneJ]

Yesterday Grenada County actually flipped to Presley (+7). It previously voted for Reeves by 2 and Trump by 12!

[wbrocks67]

Looking inside Montgomery County, there were some areas that got close - or even exceeded - 50% overall voter turnout.

[Pericles]

2020 turnout was unusually high which could skew polling either way, if anyone is relying on turnout being that high it is most likely a mistake imo.

[wbrocks67]

It appears that NY Dems actually did have a pretty great night outside of Long Island:

And in New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul saw Democrats notch wins across the state, including winning a county district attorney position for the first time in history, flipping the city council in Binghamton, and winning a majority on the county legislature in Cayuga County, a county former President Donald Trump carried in both 2016 and 2020. Hochul, whose party apparatus had a disastrous showing in the 2022 midterms, said she raised $1.5 million for the state party’s work in these races.

https://themessenger.com/politics/democratic-governors-even-those-not-on-the-ballot-tuesday-had-strong-nights

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

It appears that NY Dems actually did have a pretty great night outside of Long Island:

And in New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul saw Democrats notch wins across the state, including winning a county district attorney position for the first time in history, flipping the city council in Binghamton, and winning a majority on the county legislature in Cayuga County, a county former President Donald Trump carried in both 2016 and 2020. Hochul, whose party apparatus had a disastrous showing in the 2022 midterms, said she raised $1.5 million for the state party’s work in these races.

https://themessenger.com/politics/democratic-governors-even-those-not-on-the-ballot-tuesday-had-strong-nights

they didn't have candidates for 2 state supreme court seats, which is pretty indefensible, but other than that

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1722690680450097443

The electorate was about Trump +7. Basically inverse Florida 2022.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1722694526681129144

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1722694526681129144

NJ Dems outspent Rs 10:1 where both sides contested.

[Duke of York]

It appears that NY Dems actually did have a pretty great night outside of Long Island:

And in New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul saw Democrats notch wins across the state, including winning a county district attorney position for the first time in history, flipping the city council in Binghamton, and winning a majority on the county legislature in Cayuga County, a county former President Donald Trump carried in both 2016 and 2020. Hochul, whose party apparatus had a disastrous showing in the 2022 midterms, said she raised $1.5 million for the state party’s work in these races.

https://themessenger.com/politics/democratic-governors-even-those-not-on-the-ballot-tuesday-had-strong-nights

What county DA?

[GoTfan]

I'm laughing at Trump and Republicans saying that it was a good night because they won Mississippi. If a win by five points in one of the reddest states in the country is your bar for success, then they really are in trouble.

[cg41386]

It appears that NY Dems actually did have a pretty great night outside of Long Island:

And in New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul saw Democrats notch wins across the state, including winning a county district attorney position for the first time in history, flipping the city council in Binghamton, and winning a majority on the county legislature in Cayuga County, a county former President Donald Trump carried in both 2016 and 2020. Hochul, whose party apparatus had a disastrous showing in the 2022 midterms, said she raised $1.5 million for the state party’s work in these races.

https://themessenger.com/politics/democratic-governors-even-those-not-on-the-ballot-tuesday-had-strong-nights

What county DA?

Dutchess.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/orukja/status/1722723989133668758?t=jBKzb54EBb14qezEQqDMfQ&a...

Mayor contest flip

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1722724426532225043
Austin is beyond saving, its sad that the Capital of Texas is in the city that hates the state the most.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/donnermaps/status/1722808214197285200

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Things aren't over yet in New Jersey 👀

https://twitter.com/OneJerseySchorr/status/1723007388997861663?s=20

[wbrocks67]

The way i HOWLED

And in Carluccio’s home county, Montgomery, McCaffery led by 30 points — 10 points better than McLaughlin’s edge. Montgomery County GOP chairman Christian Nascimento said the Democrats’ negative advertising “turned her into Doug Mastriano.”

https://www.inquirer.com/news/philadelphia/republican-party-suburban-philadelphia-losses-20231109.html

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/chaznuttycombe/status/1723075908754362677?s=46