!!! Only 17% of Arab-Americans say they'll vote for Biden in 2024, down from 59% in 2020!?

[Mr. Ukucasha]

Has this been posted yet!?

https://time.com/6330102/biden-israel-gaza-arab-americans-trump/

The first national poll of Arab Americans since the war in Gaza began shows how deep that sense of betrayal goes, with only 17% of Arab American voters saying they will vote for Biden in 2024—a staggering drop from 59% in 2020.

...

The damage isn’t limited to Biden: Just 23% of Arab Americans identify with the Democratic Party, marking the first time a majority did not claim to prefer the Democrats since the institute began tracking party identification in 1996. Those identifying as Independents rose to 31%, the highest it’s ever been.

WTF?

[Cassius]

Well there goes 0.2% off Biden’s popular vote share. Although I suppose, theoretically, this could actually swing the vote in Michigan, assuming they all decamped en-masse to vote for Trump. But that doesn’t seem especially likely.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Demographics is destiny! Maybe Trump changes teams and America gets more split.

[Xing]

Atlas is so melodramatic. No, Trump will not get 80% of the Arab American vote.

[MT Treasurer]

Atlas is so melodramatic. No, Trump will not get 80% of the Arab American vote.

Why do you always have to resort to these straw men? It’s pretty melodramatic.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Demographics is destiny! Maybe Trump changes teams and America gets more split.

If trump decides to become anti Israel, that would alienate more voters then he’d gain . The vast majority of people in this country are Pro Israel

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Biden can afford to lose Michigan, the only state where this will matter. All the states he flipped in 2020 are only tilting further away from Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden can afford to lose Michigan, the only state where this will matter. All the states he flipped in 2020 are only tilting further away from Trump.

Counterpoint: Biden can't afford to lose Michigan, but it's the last of the six Biden-won battlegrounds to flip, and if he's lost it he already lost the election in other states.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Reminder that most Arab Americans are Christians.

[DrScholl]

So does this mean Republicans are going to go pro-Hamas? I wouldn't much worry about this because it's a small portion of the vote and because it's not as if Biden actually did anything anti-Arab. If they can't see that Hamas is wrong then that is not Biden's problem.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Biden can afford to lose Michigan, the only state where this will matter. All the states he flipped in 2020 are only tilting further away from Trump.

Counterpoint: Biden can't afford to lose Michigan, but it's the last of the six Biden-won battlegrounds to flip, and if he's lost it he already lost the election in other states.

Assuming this is a decisive factor there, it won't be replicated in any other state. PA, WI, GA, AZ don't have large Muslim/Arab enclaves that we're to believe will be organizing to defeat him. I'm skeptical that this will happen, but if it does it doesn't mean that the vote shares will follow the usual patterns.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If trump decides to become anti Israel, that would alienate more voters then he’d gain .

He already praises Hamas and attacks Israel.

[They not like us]

So does this mean Republicans are going to go pro-Hamas? I wouldn't much worry about this because it's a small portion of the vote and because it's not as if Biden actually did anything anti-Arab. If they can't see that Hamas is wrong then that is not Biden's problem.

I mean, Trump has been openly hostile towards Israel/Netanyahu since the start of the war, but I'm not sure if he'll carry that into the GE. Pretty sure he also called Hamas "smart" but who knows what he actually believes.

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden can afford to lose Michigan, the only state where this will matter. All the states he flipped in 2020 are only tilting further away from Trump.

Counterpoint: Biden can't afford to lose Michigan, but it's the last of the six Biden-won battlegrounds to flip, and if he's lost it he already lost the election in other states.

Assuming this is a decisive factor there, it won't be replicated in any other state. PA, WI, GA, AZ don't have large Muslim/Arab enclaves that we're to believe will be organizing to defeat him. I'm skeptical that this will happen, but if it does it doesn't mean that the vote shares will follow the usual patterns.

But that won't work unless Trump has closed the gap in the rest of the state. He probably needs to have made the gains to be within a point in a normal election for the Arab vote to be decisive.

[Redban]

The Biden stooges asking, "So is Trump going to go pro-Hamas now?" ...  No, and he doesn't need to

Taking a vote from your opponent and adding it to your column is excellent. But just having your opponent lose a vote (even if you don't get that vote in your column) is still good

In other words: If some Biden-2020 voters decide to vote 3rd party or not at all, that hurts Biden even if Trump doesn't actively get those voters in his column. Republicans don't have to go pro-Hamas to reap the benefit of Biden's losing some 2020-voters

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, this would not be much of a "problem" for Biden (electorally, not morally, of course) unless you’re inclined to believe that Biden doesn’t just have an "Arab" but perhaps an underrated non-white problem..

[Tekken_Guy]

The Biden stooges asking, "So is Trump going to go pro-Hamas now?" ...  No, and he doesn't need to

Taking a vote from your opponent and adding it to your column is excellent. But just having your opponent lose a vote (even if you don't get that vote in your column) is still good

In other words: If some Biden-2020 voters decide to vote 3rd party or not at all, that hurts Biden even if Trump doesn't actively get those voters in his column. Republicans don't have to go pro-Hamas to reap the benefit of Biden's losing some 2020-voters

Biden won Michigan by almost 3 points in 2020. The Arab vote alone is not significant enough to swing the election towards Trump even if they voted for Trump by Assad margins. Trump needs to find other places to gain.

[heatcharger]

Wayne County, MI — 100% Reporting

Joseph R. Biden / Kamala Harris - 436,834 - 49.98%
Donald J. Trump / Tulsi Gabbard - 282,045 - 32.27%
Robert F. Kennedy / Curtis Sliwa - 111,983 - 12.81%
Cornel West / Nina Turner - 31,398 - 3.59%
Others - 11,799 - 1.35%

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Demographics is destiny! Maybe Trump changes teams and America gets more split.

If trump decides to become anti Israel, that would alienate more voters then he’d gain . The vast majority of people in this country are Pro Israel

The vast majority of people in this country are what the media or their dear leader tells them to be.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This kind of seems like a trend among many demographics right now. I still expect that to change when the campaigning and official nominations happen. Arabs will have to recognize that Biden still holds Arab interests in higher regard than Trump and the GOP will. The only thing I think is worth worrying about is whether they go third party or not. But this all still assumes that the Gaza conflict will be as relevant as it is now, which I wouldn't be so certain about.

[Redban]

Biden won Michigan by almost 3 points in 2020. The Arab vote alone is not significant enough to swing the election towards Trump even if they voted for Trump by Assad margins. Trump needs to find other places to gain.

Yes, Biden won MI by 3% in 2020. But 2020 was a D+4.5% environment. All the polling indicates a a tie or, at best (for Biden), a D+1% or D+2% environment. The whole state will likely move against Biden compared to 2020, and a swing in a small group like Arab-Americans could therefore make a difference

[OSR stands with Israel]

Biden won Michigan by almost 3 points in 2020. The Arab vote alone is not significant enough to swing the election towards Trump even if they voted for Trump by Assad margins. Trump needs to find other places to gain.

Yes, Biden won MI by 3% in 2020. But 2020 was a D+4.5% environment. All the polling indicates a a tie or, at best (for Biden), a D+1% or D+2% environment. The whole state will likely move against Biden compared to 2020, and a swing in a small group like Arab-Americans could therefore make a difference

Keep in mind the Dobbs factor though which has shown that many Non College whites in the rust belt weren’t anywhere near as Socially conservative are people thought . It’s why democrats are overperforming polls now after underperforming them from 2014- TX special election in 2022 .

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden won Michigan by almost 3 points in 2020. The Arab vote alone is not significant enough to swing the election towards Trump even if they voted for Trump by Assad margins. Trump needs to find other places to gain.

Yes, Biden won MI by 3% in 2020. But 2020 was a D+4.5% environment. All the polling indicates a a tie or, at best (for Biden), a D+1% or D+2% environment. The whole state will likely move against Biden compared to 2020, and a swing in a small group like Arab-Americans could therefore make a difference

If the race is close enough that the Arab vote is enough to cost Biden the state, then Trump has likely already won the election in other states.

There's also the possibility that Trump is doing well enough that he would have won Michigan either way and this is just icing on the cake.

[GALeftist]

This kind of seems like a trend among many demographics right now. I still expect that to change when the campaigning and official nominations happen. Arabs will have to recognize that Biden still holds Arab interests in higher regard than Trump and the GOP will. The only thing I think is worth worrying about is whether they go third party or not. But this all still assumes that the Gaza conflict will be as relevant as it is now, which I wouldn't be so certain about.

I think the synthesis here is that you're probably going to see *a* rebound among Arab-Americans, but not to 2020 numbers

[Progressive Pessimist]

This kind of seems like a trend among many demographics right now. I still expect that to change when the campaigning and official nominations happen. Arabs will have to recognize that Biden still holds Arab interests in higher regard than Trump and the GOP will. The only thing I think is worth worrying about is whether they go third party or not. But this all still assumes that the Gaza conflict will be as relevant as it is now, which I wouldn't be so certain about.

I think the synthesis here is that you're probably going to see *a* rebound among Arab-Americans, but not to 2020 numbers

Perhaps. And for that reason I just think it's absurd to write the state off for Biden with still over a year left where much can change.