Scotland 2007; results thread

[Verily]

The Conservatives won the election before Salmond, so it'll likely be on their radar. However, the Lib Dems are as a rule strong in north Scotland, and they do very well in by-elections. We'll see, I guess.

[Harry Hayfield]

Party wins in Banff and Buchan 1979 - 2007 (prior to that I think it was called Banff)

1987 - 2007: SNP
1979 - 1987: Con

I do remember from my election archive that the SNP did win Banff in one of the 74 elections and that before that it was Con

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The constituency was only created in '83. Before then you had a Banffshire constituency and an Aberdeenshire East constituency.

[Verily]

There was a by-election in 2001 for the Scottish constituency. The results were:

Stewart Stevenson (SNP): 15,386 (49.61%)
Ted Brocklebank (Con): 6,819 (21.99%)
Megan Harris (Lab): 4,897 (15.79%)
Kenyon Wright (LD): 3,231 (10.42%)
Peter Anderson (SSP): 682 (2.20%)

That suggests that the seat is pretty safe for the SNP even without Salmond and in a by-election. OTOH, the Conservatives were a lot less popular in 2001 than they are today.

[minionofmidas]

How much of that 19,000 votes is down to a personal vote? He has been the MP since 1987 and that could make this extremely interesting indeed.

Definitely not enough to make the seat competitive. This will be one of the more boring by-elections this cycle.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A little crude, so sorry... anyway... number of seats won by each party in Glasgow (local election)...

[Harry Hayfield]

A little crude, so sorry... anyway... number of seats won by each party in Glasgow (local election)...

For a party so opposed to STV, I bet Glasgow Conservatives are cheering!

[Joe Republic]

Some good maps Al, but could we get a color code?

[Harry Hayfield]

Red: Lab
Purple: SNP
Yellow: Lib Dem
Green: Green
Light Red: Solidarity
Blue: Con

[afleitch]

I wouldn't say Tories are cheering! They only had once councillor in 2003, the new system if in place in 2003 would have theoretically given them two. If anything they stood still.

Greens did very well however, particularly in Ward 8 - the new 'genteel' Gorbals

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Time for a demographic map:



(might do more of these at some point. Glasgow is up there with Manchester when it comes to interesting demographic patterns)

[Hash]

So, who are the LDs going to support in coalition?

[Silent Hunter]

At the moment, no-one. They won't "prop-up" Labour and won't join with the SNP unless they drop the independence referendum idea.

[minionofmidas]

So what will we get? A Labour-Tory government?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So what will we get?

An extremely weak SNP minority government by the looks of it

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Ruled out a few weeks ago IIRC

[afleitch]

Ruled out a few weeks ago IIRC

Expect a mass exodus should it happen; this isn't county politics, it's national. There was a split between SNP and Labour 'supporting' Conservatives that was very close to boiling point diuring the campaign; I wouldn't like to see it brought to the surface.

[Democratic Hawk]

Here's Scotland, allocating the regional seats proportionally as per any particular parties share of the vote in any particular region [i.e. none of this "top-up" thing

This system would mean, given all eight regions have seven additional seats, the following results [allowing for a minimum of 0.35 and a minimum vote share of 5% to secure additional representation]

Central Scotland:

Lab 39.6% - 3 seats [2.772]
SNP 31.4% - 2 seats [2.198]
C 8.5% - 1 seat [0.595]
LD 5.2% - 1 seat [0.364]

Glasgow:

Lab 38.2% - 2 seats [2.674]
SNP 27.0% - 2 seats [1.89]
LD 7.2% - 1 seat [0.504]
C 6.7% - 1 seat [0.469]
Green 5.2% - 1 seat [0.364]

Highlands & Islands:

SNP 34.4% - 3 seats [2.408]
LD 19.9% - 2 seats [1.393]
Lab 17.7% - 1 seat [1.239]
C 12.6% - 1 seat [0.882]

Lothians:

SNP 26.5% - 2 seats [1.855]
Lab 26.3% - 2 seats [1.841]
C 13.1% - 1 seat [0.917]
LD 12.7% - 1 seat [0.889]
Green 7.0% - 1 seat [0.49]

Mid Scotland & Fife:

SNP 33.0% - 3 seats [2.31]
Lab 26.3% - 2 seats [1.841]
C 16.2% - 1 seat [1.134]
LD 13.2% - 1 seat [0.924]

North East Scotland:

SNP 40.5% - 4seats [2.835]
Lab 20.0% - 1 seat [1.40]
LD 15.7% - 1 seat [1.099]
C 14.5% - 1 seat [1.015]

South of Scotland:

Lab 28.8% - 2 seats [2.016]
SNP 27.8% - 2 seats [1.946]
C 22.6% - 2 seats [1.582]
LD 10.1% - 1 seat [0.707]

West of Scotland:

Lab 34.2% - 3 seats [2.394]
SNP 28.3% - 2 seats [1.981]
C 15.2% - 1 seat [1.064]
LD 8.4% - 1 seat [0.588]

Total proportional seats: Lab 16; SNP 20; LD 9; Con 9; Green 2

Total FPTP seats: Lab 37; SNP 21; LD 11; Con 4

Total Parliament seats: Lab 53; SNP 41; LD 20; Con 13; Green 2

Dave

[Verily]

...Which would clearly be a terrible system, seeing that Labour lost the popular vote quite significantly to the SNP.

[afleitch]

...Which would clearly be a terrible system, seeing that Labour lost the popular vote quite significantly to the SNP.

Agreed

Here's Scotland, allocating the regional seats proportionally as per any particular parties share of the vote in any particular region [i.e. none of this "top-up" thing]

This system would mean, given all eight regions have seven additional seats, the following results [allowing for a minimum of 0.35 and a minimum vote share of 5% to secure additional representation]

Sorry Dave, regional seats are allocated not only on the basis of the regional vote, but also on the basis of how the parties have performed in terms of FPTP and constituency seats. What the ‘top up’ does is to redress the difference. True, a ‘second’ vote isn’t required; you could simply use the total votes in the constituencies and allocate the seats that way, but what you tested there was a system designed to reinforce the disproportionate effect of FPTP rather than address it.

It would be hard to justify a larger number of Labour seats than SNP seats after an election where the SNP topped the constituency, regional and nationwide council poll.

As I’ve said before, FPTP works on a UK wide level because it allows for not only majority government, but a change in government that reflects the level of the popular vote, even if some regions are solid red and some are solid blue. In Scotland and Wales, it does not. The SNP could be 7 to 10 points clear of Labour and still not gain the most constituency seats.

[Democratic Hawk]

Just thought I'd work things out that way to see how things would look . I expected, as with Wales, this "system" would work to Labour's advantage

Dave

[minionofmidas]

Glasgow:

Lab 38.2% - 2 seats [2.674]
SNP 27.0% - 2 seats [1.89]
LD 7.2% - 1 seat [0.504]
C 6.7% - 1 seat [0.469]
Green 5.2% - 1 seat [0.364]

That's not a proportional distribution. Even under Hare-Niemeyer, which favors minor parties, Labour gets a third seat before the Greens get one.
This one isn't a Hare-Niemeyer distribution either, although it's what you would get under D'Hondt:

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Hare would have a second Labour seat. With a quota under 3.00, there isn't a way in hell for the SNP to get four seats under Hare.



Other regions seem to be in accordance with Hare, provided that in 

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there isn't a party with a quota from .31 to .35. (If you do want to introduce thresholds in Hare-Niemeyer, you should recalculate quotas to the new total of only those parties over the threshold.)

Btw, systems like you lined out exist in the world, for example in Japan (lower house) and in Russia.
And from looking at these examples... while the idea sounds good on paper, it does seem to tend to induce an unhealthy level of stability.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For some reason I took an old Whitaker's Alamanack with my on holiday and, on a rainy day, worked out the %'s for the SNP in the 1974 (Oct) election. As the overall SNP % was only a little bit lower than this year I decided to make a map of both using the same (admittedly quite crude) key:



Boundary changes and personal votes cloud things in a few areas o/c.

[Harry Hayfield]

Following a BBC report about the elections, I would like to know the following:

(copy of an e-mail sent to Aberdeen City Council)

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I should point out that I am quite serious about this, as I think the Scottish Parliament would be able to get on with things if all the ballots were counted in the proper manner (i.e by a person not a computer)

[afleitch]

Following a BBC report about the elections, I would like to know the following:

(copy of an e-mail sent to Aberdeen City Council)

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I should point out that I am quite serious about this, as I think the Scottish Parliament would be able to get on with things if all the ballots were counted in the proper manner (i.e by a person not a computer)

Things in the Parliament are chugging along fine It's just the voting system that, again, is over complicated. With Labour out of power, there may be more of a push for total STV in MMC's at Holyrood, but thats not the sort of constitutional change the Executive (or should I say, as of today, Government) are aiming for at the moment.

If the report is harsh - Douglas Alexander may be forced out.