Scotland 2007; results thread

[afleitch]

Look guys, I'm sorry. But I'm just really pissed off with the whole conduct of this election. Labour do not, under any circumstances, wish to let go of power in Scotland despite losing the election. Their campaign was negative, their arrogance was transparent with their unwillingness to let Salmond have 'first dibs' on forming an administration until someone had a quiet word in McConnell's ear.

[minionofmidas]

Look guys, I'm sorry. But I'm just really pissed off with the whole conduct of this election. Labour do not, under any circumstances, wish to let go of power in Scotland despite losing the election. Their campaign was negative, their arrogance was transparent with their unwillingness to let Salmond have 'first dibs' on forming an administration until someone had a quiet word in McConnell's ear.

I'm hearing you. I frankly don't like it either. I think even Al's problem is just with the last sentence of your previous post (and he has a point there.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, I'm not happy with the way that certain comrades (I think with new leadership beckoning, 'tis time to revert to more traditional language...) north of the border have acted either*. Just try not to go over the top, that's all

*As it happens I think that a more positive campaign would have likely have saved one or two more vulnerable constituency seats. But that's not the only reason why I don't like it. I've always thought that part of the point of having a Labour Party was to set an example, and I don't like it when some within it don't.

[afleitch]

Lib Dem MSP Tavish Scott has stated that if the Liberal Democrats cannot reach agreement with the SNP they will return to the backbenches. Nationally they had privately hoped for 20-25 seats and are left to lick their wounds.

[afleitch]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So if the election turned out as badly for Scottish Labour as it was looking until the last few days, they might as well have changed their name to the Bloc Glasgow?

[Harry Hayfield]

What I find the most interesting thing about that map is the SNP are really landlocked. Their best support are in Moray, Banff and Buchan, Angus, Perth and Kinross. Everywhere else they are marginal (even in Dundee)

[afleitch]

So if the election turned out as badly for Scottish Labour as it was looking until the last few days, they might as well have changed their name to the Bloc Glasgow?

Labour were excellent at retaining their marginals, but lost seats further down the list. Seats such as Cunninghame South and East Lothian swung heavily away from them. Nationwide things were just bizzare. Loosing Edinburgh East but not Central, a swing to Labour in Dumfries and the SNP gaining Argyll and Stirling East.

Dunfermline East was also..strange. It was jokingly said that the Lib Dems may take it, but my jaw dropped when it did.

I also cannot see any relation to what happened to the 2005 General Election with the exception of Dumfries.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dunfermline East was also..strange. It was jokingly said that the Lib Dems may take it, but my jaw dropped when it did.

You mean Dunfermline West, right?

The odd thing is that they wouldn't have taken it on the Westminster boundaries; have a look at the local results in Fife: http://www.fife.gov.uk/topics/index.cfm?fuseaction=subject.display&subjectid=75FF1F89-38B3-4136-B0449D1529C55B51

[afleitch]

Dunfermline East was also..strange. It was jokingly said that the Lib Dems may take it, but my jaw dropped when it did.

You mean Dunfermline West, right?

The odd thing is that they wouldn't have taken it on the Westminster boundaries; have a look at the local results in Fife: http://www.fife.gov.uk/topics/index.cfm?fuseaction=subject.display&subjectid=75FF1F89-38B3-4136-B0449D1529C55B51

Of course .. West

I do wonder what the new Holyrood boundaries, whenever they are drawn will do to the results.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do you still have that central-Scotland-wide map of the new wards?

[afleitch]

Do you still have that central-Scotland-wide map of the new wards?

Yes. I'll fish it out.

[afleitch]

Hope it's up to date.

[minionofmidas]

Remind me again what the snaky seat to the north of the Falkirks and Dunfermlines is. Ochil?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remind me again what the snaky seat to the north of the Falkirks and Dunfermlines is. Ochil?

Yeah; SNP nearly lost it, despite winning it in 2003.

[minionofmidas]

Interesting how Labour managed to retain a majority of the constituencies... 37 out of 73. Now... if the other seats would not exist...
a swing of 0.9 from Labour to the SNP meant a hung Parliament (loss of Aberdeen C)
A swing of 2.8 would see Labour and the SNP tied at 29 seats each (with the SNP picking up Linlithgow, Glasgow Kelvin, Airdrie & Shotts, Dumbarton, East Kilbride, and Edinburgh C, plus Tweeddale etc from the LDs, and Labour losing Eastwood to the Tories)
A swing of 4.7 would see an SNP majority (picking up Falkirk E, Midlothian, East Lothian, Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, West Renfrewshire, Clydesdale, Cunninghame S, and Strathkelvin & Bearsden).

[Verily]

Something that just occurred to me... Are we likely to see a by-election in the Westminster Banff and Buchan constituency soon? I would assume Salmond will stand down as an MP to become First Minister.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LibDems have ruled out a coalition with the SNP.

[Verily]

Now things will get interesting. Tavish Scott ruled out a coalition with Labour yesterday, I believe.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now things will get interesting. Tavish Scott ruled out a coalition with Labour yesterday, I believe.

Yep. And some people in the Welsh LibDems are making similar "no coalition" noises.

[True Democrat]

Now I won't get to see Gordon Brown try to handle Scottish independence.

[Verily]

Now I won't get to see Gordon Brown try to handle Scottish independence.

It wasn't going to happen anyway. Even if the SNP got a referendum, it wouldn't win 50%, let alone the probable 55% or 60% threshold.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note that there's no majority for Independence in the Scottish Parliament, even after these elections (besides I think that, technically, most of the SNP's gains came at the expense of more left-leaning pro-Independence parties? So perhaps more a shift to the right amongt Nationalist types, rather than a shift to Nationalism?)

[Verily]

Note that there's no majority for Independence in the Scottish Parliament, even after these elections (besides I think that, technically, most of the SNP's gains came at the expense of more left-leaning pro-Independence parties? So perhaps more a shift to the right amongt Nationalist types, rather than a shift to Nationalism?)

I don't know that it was a shift to the right for nationalism, just a coalescing of the vote around the more mainstream SNP. The SSCUP was probably best characterized as right-wing, and it lost its seat, too. The real change, of course, was that nearly all of the SSP's vote reverted to the SNP.

Labour actually declined very little in the list vote, though it lost ground in the constituency vote.

The Lib Dems had the odd pattern of gaining in the constituency vote while losing constituency seats and losing in the list vote while gaining list seats.

The Conservatives remained almost perfectly static in the constituency vote but declined in the list vote.

[Harry Hayfield]

Something that just occurred to me... Are we likely to see a by-election in the Westminster Banff and Buchan constituency soon? I would assume Salmond will stand down as an MP to become First Minister.

That's right (and what an interesting by-election that will be). The result in 2005 was:

Alex Salmond, SNP 19,044 (51.17%)
Sandy Wallace, Con   7,207 (19.36%)
Eleanor Anderson, LDm 4,952   (13.30%)
Rami Okasha, Lab 4,476 (12.02%)
Victor Ross, OCV 683 (1.83%)
Kathleen Kemp, UKInd 442 (1.18%)
Steve Will, SSP 412 (1.10%)

How much of that 19,000 votes is down to a personal vote? He has been the MP since 1987 and that could make this extremely interesting indeed.