2023-2024 College Basketball Discussion Thread

[JGibson]

Illini got a big comeback win in the B1G Men's Tournament over Nebraska.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kent State just lost their conference championship game by fouling UP by 1 in the final seconds (because their player thought they were losing).  I'd say that it was unbelievable except for the fact that it happened to Vandy the last time we were in the NCAA Tournament.

I recall a game years ago with the reverse of that ending: a player dribbling out the clock thinking his team was up 1, when they were actually down 1.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Some years, I put a lot more time and effort into this, but I'm going to take a last minute stab at a Bracketology:

My big unusual call is St. John's in and FAU out.  FAU reminds me of 2014 SMU- a team that was considered a lock because they had been one for a while.  That team got left out.  It wouldn't surprise me if FAU also does with all the bid stealing we've seen.  I'm also lower on South Carolina's seeding (7 seed) than most.  Last year's committee LOVED NET, so can't see a 51 NET getting a 5 seed (where others have them).  The NET is also why I have Indiana State in, against the majority of projections.

Actually, looking at FAU's wins, I'm going to swap them with Indiana State as the two right on the bubble.  Owls last team in, Sycamores first team out.

1 Seeds: UConn, Houston, Purdue, North Carolina (strongly considered Iowa St. here)
2 Seeds: Iowa State, Arizona, Tennessee, Marquette
3 Seeds: Auburn, Baylor, Illinois, Duke
4 Seeds: Creighton, Kentucky, Alabama, Kansas
5 Seeds: Wisconsin, BYU, St. Mary's, Florida
6 Seeds: Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Utah State, Texas
7 Seeds: Nebraska, South Carolina, Dayton, Clemson
8 Seeds: San Diego State, Nevada, Washington State, Boise State
9 Seeds: Northwestern, Colorado, Mississippi State, New Mexico
10 Seeds: TCU, Colorado State, Texas A&M/Michigan State, St. John's/Florida Atlantic
11 Seeds: Oregon, NC State, James Madison, Drake
12 Seeds: Grand Canyon, McNeese State, Samford, UAB
13 Seeds: Duquesne, Yale, College of Charleston, Vermont
14 Seeds: Akron, Morehead State, Colgate, Oakland
15 Seeds: Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Long Beach State, Longwood
16 Seeds: Stetson, St. Peter's, Montana State/Howard, Grambling State/Wagner

Last Four Byes:
Colorado
Mississippi State
TCU
Colorado State

Last Four In:
Texas A&M
Michigan State
St. John's
Florida Atlantic

First Four Out:
Indiana State
Oklahoma
Virginia
Wake Forest

Next Four Out:
Pitt
Ohio State
Providence
Seton Hall

[GeorgiaModerate]

FAU got an 8 seed, which I think is shockingly overrated.  I was pretty much in agreement with ER - had them as one of the last teams in.

[Mr. Illini]

Thrilling B1G tournament final. Illini put on a show! I L L

[JGibson]

Men's Bracket:
https://twitter.com/MarchMadnessMBB/status/1769496098664583361

Women's Bracket:
https://twitter.com/MarchMadnessWBB/status/1769523776679538861

[JGibson]

Is Atlas doing a bracket challenge for the men's and/or women's?

[Illiniwek]

Thrilling B1G tournament final. Illini put on a show! I L L

It was amazing! They went down by 10 in the second half yesterday, and you could just feel that Illinois had Wisconsin right where they wanted them! Fantastic three days as an Illini fan. Just need to have one more good week and this will officially be the best season since 05!

[YE]

FAU got an 8 seed, which I think is shockingly overrated.  I was pretty much in agreement with ER - had them as one of the last teams in.

Between them, Dayton, and the MWC teams seeding, the seeding blew my mind. I had FAU as my 3rd to last in. I had St Johns in over Virginia.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My predictions:

Final Four: Houston over Tennessee; Alabama over Iowa State; Houston wins it all.

Biggest upset: #13 Samford over #4 Kansas

Other 1st-round upsets: #12 James Madison over #5 Wisconsin, #12 McNeese over #5 Gonzaga (McNeese is good! I'd pick them to go further except they'll get Purdue in the Sweet 16.)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

In the 6-11 matchups:
- New Mexico is outright favored and rightfully so
- Oregon is a 1 point underdog and probably should be expected to win
- N.C. State is Oregon with a much tougher draw at 2.5 point underdog. I don't think they pull it off because they've already done enough for this season to be a success but no one would be shocked if they beat Texas Tech

- But no one is giving Duquesne a chance as they have been bet up from 7 to 9 point underdogs against BYU.

Is there any team that seems like a bigger fraud than BYU, which ranks 350th in the Away From Home performance metric, 278th in momentum? BYU just jacks up 3's (2nd nationally) despite having the 2nd leading field goal percentage from the paint. Meanwhile Duquesne is a defensive behemoth that ranks 23rd in Away from Home and 24th in Momentum. You can throw out the first half of their results where they were nowhere near the team they were projected to be until they pulled it together. I was not at all surprised they beat Dayton or VCU (although I thought the Bonnies would squeak by despite already losing to the Dukes twice).

Given that this game is going to be played in the Plains rather than the Mountains, I really am stunned by the money movement in this one. I guess I will probably take the points, but a bit worried to go against the inside knowledge.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Also surprising: Samford over Kansas and Charleston over Alabama have the same probability, but no one is picking the latter.

Charleston was better last year when they failed to deliver the upset, but they also lost to the national runner-up (and played them much closer than the SoCon champion). Pat Kelsey is already a hot commodity on the job market, and it would not be surprising to see him in a better job if he wins again here.

Alabama's defense is putrid and has been their undoing time and time again.

As with Duquesne above, I would probably ride with the 9.5 - although Torvik doesn't agree with me here (7 for Duquesne but 11 for Charleston) - and maybe over 173.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cool story about the guy who picked the first two rounds (48 games) perfectly a few years ago -- all while sick and sleep-deprived: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/39752102/march-madness-perfect-bracket-gregg-nigl-ncaa-history

I think the best I ever did was in 2000, correctly picking Michigan State over Florida, 3 of the Final Four, and 6 of the Elite Eight.  (TBF, it was a very chalky tournament.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Virginia

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia nearly blew a 23-point lead but held on to beat Xavier 78-76 in the NIT last night.  Xavier apparently tied the game with 1.7 seconds left on a goal-tend call, but review showed it was a clean block on the way up and reversed the call.  Xavier still had possession and one last shot at the buzzer, but it was also blocked.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Virginia

Virginia was a weird inclusion to begin with.  The advanced stats hated them (incidentally, they loved Wake, Indiana St., and St. John's), and nothing in their resume screamed that they had to be in.  I could go several ways with who should have replaced them, but I wouldn't have put them in.  And, I'd say the same if they'd won the play-in game.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I feel bad for Pitt. They should've been the 5th ACC team in the tournament. UVA has been up and down all season and was trending down to start the tournament.

[YE]

UVA had ok resume metrics but everything else about their profile stunk. Either St Johns or Indiana State should have taken their place.

[Ferguson97]

Would anyone be interested in Atlas bracket tournament?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Would anyone be interested in Atlas bracket tournament?

I'd join it!

[JGibson]

Would anyone be interested in Atlas bracket tournament?

I'm in.

[Ferguson97]

Alright, I'll post a link as soon as I figure out how to make it not show my real name lol

[Ferguson97]

https://play.ncaa.com/mens-bracket-challenge/group/1636231?joinToken=1baa32a75709e03b3e702534&iid=bcg_share_web_other_group_email

pass: daveleips

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm in, bracket selected.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Joined and my Bracket Name is Blazers-1977