California 2008

[Jaggerjack]

California's a blue state, but CV and the Inland Empire are growing really fast and both are heavily republican (besides Sacramento proper). And REALLY fast too. By 2005 estimates SFBA's population has fallen a litttle. Also, according to this site itself, LA county is trending Republican (WTF). Hope Cali doesn't swing to the right.

[Kevin]

California's a blue state, but CV and the Inland Empire are growing really fast and both are heavily republican (besides Sacramento proper). And REALLY fast too. By 2005 estimates SFBA's population has fallen a litttle. Also, according to this site itself, LA county is trending Republican (WTF). Hope Cali doesn't swing to the right.

Looking at things in the long term California could become a swing state but not in 2008.

[Jaggerjack]

California's a blue state, but CV and the Inland Empire are growing really fast and both are heavily republican (besides Sacramento proper). And REALLY fast too. By 2005 estimates SFBA's population has fallen a litttle. Also, according to this site itself, LA county is trending Republican (WTF). Hope Cali doesn't swing to the right.

I wish desperatley that it would go republican. That would be fantastic. We would be ensured of the election at that point. By the way, Kevin, please respond to the personal message that I sent you.

And that's exactly what Democrats probably thought before 1992, when California was a red state.

[Jaggerjack]

Even the Inland Empire...?

[auburntiger]

California's a blue state, but CV and the Inland Empire are growing really fast and both are heavily republican (besides Sacramento proper). And REALLY fast too. By 2005 estimates SFBA's population has fallen a litttle. Also, according to this site itself, LA county is trending Republican (WTF). Hope Cali doesn't swing to the right.

I wish desperatley that it would go republican. That would be fantastic. We would be ensured of the election at that point. By the way, Kevin, please respond to the personal message that I sent you.

CA doesn't have to flip before we're ensured of the election. If we can win WI, and hold onto OH and CO, then the election will have already been decided.

Even if CA was a true tossup, we would already be winning Maine, Delaware, Washington, Michigan, etc.

for the record, the GOP needs to give up on CA unless our candidate is polling 10% ahead of the Democrat nationally

[Tender Branson]

There's already a recent General Election poll out for CA by the Field poll and according to this, there´s no way that the state is trending to the Republicans, if Hillary is ahead of Rudy by +10 ...

Have a look:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=55686.0

[Padfoot]

Let's not forget that much of California's population growth can be attributed to both legal and illegal immigration from Latin America.  Here's a breakdown of the state's population growth from 2000-2006:

-a natural increase of 1,909,368 people (that is 3,375,297 births minus 1,465,929 deaths)

-an increase due to net migration of 774,198 people into the state (this includes both foreign immigrants and domestic migration within the US)

If you break down that net increase due to immigration you get a better idea of where California's population growth is really coming from. 

-a net increase of 1,724,790 people due to foreign immigration 

-a net decrease of 950,592 due to domestic migration

So in order to correctly ascertain California's political future you need to know who is leaving for other states and how many foreign immigrants are becoming politically involved citizens.

[Jaggerjack]

Ah, ok. I get it now. And I guess in that case growing Asians will also help the Democrats.

[ottermax]

California is not really that liberal, but it's definitely not a swing state. Much of SoCal is really conservative, but there are just enough loyal liberals in the Bay Area and LA to keep California under the Dems for a long time now. People on the West Coast seem to be very loyal to their parties.

[jokerman]

California will not go red unless the GOP begins to make itself appeal to hispanic voters, in my opinion.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

California is a very polarized state, and will likely vote Democrat by a 9-15% margin or so in 2008.

[Citizen James]

California is not really that liberal, but it's definitely not a swing state. Much of SoCal is really conservative, but there are just enough loyal liberals in the Bay Area and LA to keep California under the Dems for a long time now. People on the West Coast seem to be very loyal to their parties.

More particularly, the centrists in California tend toward fiscal responsibility (I consider the term 'fiscal conservative' to be dead at this point.), while many are turned off by the authoritarian dispansationalist social conservatism which currently dominates the GOP, including the state party.  (Arnold was a maverick in terms of the state party philosophy/theology.  McClintock is a stronger representitive of the typical CA GOP.)